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An introduction to the species-people correlation, species, people and networks, ramorum leaf blight, sudden oak death, complex networks, network epidemiology, network theory, scale-free degree distribution, epidemic threshold and final size, clustering coefficient, stream macro-invertebrates, Phytophthora ramorum, Sudden Oak Death
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Species, people and networks
Marco Pautasso 1 March 2010
Some recent studies of the spp-people correlation
World wilderness map from: UNEP-WCMC World Atlas of Biodiversity, GIS analysis by R. Lesslie (ANU), method developed for the Australian Heritage Commission
Balmfordet al. (2001) ScienceReal et al.
(2003) J Biogeog
McKinney (2003) Biol Cons
Vazquez & Gaston (2006) Biodiv & Cons
Chown et al. (2003) Ecol Appl
Luck (2007)J Biogeog
Araujo(2003) GEB
Hunter & Jonzon(1993) CB
Ding et al. (2006) J Biogeog
Moreno-Rueda &
Pizarro (2008) Ecol Res
Diniz-Filho et al. (2006) Acta Oecol.
n = 2877, r2 = 0.18, y = 1.75+ 0.22x, p < 0.0001
1
2
3
4
2 3 4 5 6 7
log10 human population size (n)
log1
0 vas
cula
r pla
nt s
pp ri
chne
ss (n
)
A positive species-people correlation for vascular plants in US counties
Data from the Synthesis of the North American Flora, Ohio and Virginia not included
1. Sampling bias?
from: Pautasso & McKinney (2007) Conservation Biology
US counties with (•) or without (o) Universities and/or Botanical Gardens
from: Pautasso & McKinney (2007) Conservation Biology
• N = 692, r2 = 0.13, y = 2.15 (SE = 0.08) + 0.15 (SE = 0.01) x, p < 0.0001
o N = 2187, r2 = 0.10, y = 2.18 (SE = 0.05) + 0.15 (SE = 0.01) x, p < 0.0001
From: Hufnagel et al. (2005) PNAS (air) & Kaluza et al. (2010) Interface (sea)
Plant (and botanist) movements in a globalized world
passengers
NATURAL
TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIAL
food webs
airport networks
cell metabolism
neural networks
railway networks
ant nests
WWWInternet
electrical power grids
software mapscomputing
gridsE-mail
patterns
innovation flows
telephone calls
co-authorship nets
family networks
committees
sexual partnerships DISEASE
SPREAD
Food web of Little Rock Lake, Wisconsin, US
Internet structure
Network pictures from: Newman (2003) SIAM Review
HIV spread
network
Epidemiology is just one of the many applications of network theory
urban road networks
modified from: Jeger et al. (2007) New Phytologist
step 1
step 2
step 3
step n
…
Simple model of infection spread (e.g. P. ramorum) in a network
pt probability of infection transmission
pp probability of infection persistence
… 100node 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (in review) Phytopathology
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00
probability of transmission
prob
abili
ty o
f per
sist
ence
localrandomsmall-worldscale-free (two-way)scale-free (uncorrelated)scale-free (one way)
Lower epidemic threshold for scale-free networks with positive correlation between in- and out-degree
modified from: Pautasso & Jeger (2008) Ecological Complexity
Epidemic does not develop Epidemic develops
Lower epidemic threshold for two-way scale-free networks (unless networks are sparsely connected)
N replicates = 100; error bars are St. Dev.; different letters show sign. different means
at p < 0.05
from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2009) JTB
Correlation of epidemic final size with out-degree of starting node increases with network connectivity
N replicates = 100; error bars are St. Dev.; different letters show sign. different means at p < 0.05
from: Pautasso et al. (2010) Ecol Compl
from: Cushman & Meentemeyer (2008) Journal of Ecology
Multi-scale correlation of human presence and Phytophthora ramorum disease incidence
Sudden Oak Death in California
from Desprez-Loustau et al. (2007) Trends in Ecology & Evolution
Source: United States Department of Agriculture, 2004Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Plant Protection and Quarantine
Trace forward/back zipcode
Positive (Phytophthora ramorum) site
Hold released
2. Species introductions?
Spatial analysis of P. ramorum reported cases in England/Wales: garden/nurseries vs. semi-natural environment
O12(r) v
alue
s
0.00
0.06
0.12
0.18
0.24
0.30f: Garden/Nursery - SNE 04 - 05
Distance (km)0 2 4 6 8 10
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4g: Garden/Nursery - SNE 05 - 06
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
Distance (km)0 2 4 6 8 10
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20d: SNE - Garden/Nursery 05 - 06
c: SNE - Garden/Nursery 04 - 05
from: Xu et al. (2009) Ecography
from: Harwood et al. (2009) Ecological Modelling
Ants and people in Europe
from Schlick-Steiner et al. (2008) Journal of Biogeography
(a)y = -0.19 + 0.29x, s.s.e. = 0.03, r2 = 0.42, p < 0.0001
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0
log10 human population size (n)
log 1
0 ant
spec
ies r
ichn
ess (
n)
(b)y = 0.67 + 0.22x, s.s.e = 0.02, r2 = 0.30, p < 0.0001
1.0
2.0
3.0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
log10 country area (km2)
log 1
0 ant
spec
ies r
ichn
ess (
n)
(c)y = -1.00 + 0.87x, s.s.e. = 0.13, r2 = 0.56, p < 0.0001
1.0
2.0
3.0
2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
log10 plant species richness (n)
log 1
0 ant
spec
ies r
ichn
ess (
n)
(d)y = 0.65 - 0.27x, s.s.e. = 0.64, r2 = 0.02, p = 0.67
1.0
2.0
3.0
-4.6 -4.5 -4.4 -4.3 -4.2
Boltzmann transformed temperature (1/kT)
log 1
0 ant
spe
cies
rich
ness
(n)
b from: http://www.worldmapper.org/
a, c & d: from: Pautasso & Parmentier (2007) Botanica Helvetica
(c)
(d)
(a) (c)
log 1
0sp
pri
chne
ss (n
)
(b) Size of countries reflects n of botanic gardens
Living collections of the world’s botanical gardens
(d)
(yr)
from: Golding et al. (2010) Annals of Botany
Living collections of the world’s botanic gardens (2)
3. Active conservation?
Photos of veteran trees courtesy of G. Bortolotti; Map of human population density from Swiss Federal Statistical Office
Celtis australis, San Gimignano
Quercus robur, Udine
Castanea sativa,St. Alfio, Sicily
Quercus cerris,Amatrice, Latium
Cupressussempervirens, Forli
people / km2
no information
(c)y = -2.03 + 0.49x, r2 = 0.15, p < 0.0001
0
1
2
4 5 6 7log10 province human population size
log1
0 vet
eran
tree
spec
ies
(c)
y = -1.70 + 0.47x, r2 = 0.69, p < 0.0001
0
1
2
4 5 6 7 8
log10 region human population size
log1
0 vet
eran
tree
spec
ies
(b)y = -2.98 + 0.68x, r2 = 0.13, p < 0.0001
0
1
2
4 5 6 7log10 province human population size
log 1
0 vet
eran
tree
indi
vidu
als
(b)
y = -1.99 + 0.58x, r2 = 0.56, p < 0.00010
1
2
3
4 5 6 7 8
log10 region human population size
log1
0 vet
eran
tree
indi
vidu
als
(c)(a)
(b)
a & b: abundance, c & d: spp richness, a & c: regions; b & d: provinces; from: Pautasso & Chiarucci (2008) Annals of Botany
(d)
Ancient trees in Italy’s regions and provinces
from: Pautasso & Dinetti (2009) Environmental Conservation
Birds, people and protected areas in Italy’s regions
from: Pautasso & Zotti (2009) Biodiversity and Conservation
Macrofungi and human population in Italy’s regions
Plant Health, Global Change and Landscape Management
Pautasso et al. (2010) Biological Reviews
Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest trees
Pautasso (2009) Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution & Systematics
Pinus pinea (Vendramin et al. (2008) Evolution)
Structural change in the international horticultural industry: implications for plant health
Dehnen-Schmutz et al. (2010) Scientia Horticulturae
(trade in ornamental plants)
MacLeod et al. (2010) Food Security
Plant health and stakeholder engagement
from Pautasso & Fontaneto (2008) Ecological Applications
Pict
ures
from
http
://bi
okey
s.be
rkel
ey.e
du
What about stream macro-invertebrates (may-, stone- & caddis-flies)?
from Pecher et al. (2010) Basic and Applied Ecology
Scale-dependence of the correlation between species richness of stream macro-invertebrates and people
from: Chiari et al. (2010) J Animal Ecology
Locally, the spp-people correlation tends to be negative
birds in Florence
from Steck & Pautasso (2008) Acta Oecologica
Grasshoppers and people in Europe
from Cantarello et al. (2010) Naturwissenschaften
Sampling effort explains the correlation between species richness of Orthoptera and people in Italy
from: Lonsdale et al. (2008) European Journal of Forest Research
Random sample of 100 papers per year on ‘species richness’ in WOS (1991-2004)
Acknowledgements
Claude Steck, Birmensdorf
Mike Jeger, Silwood
Ingrid Parmentier,
Bruxelles
Kevin Gaston,
Sheffield
Diego Fontaneto,Stockholm
Birgit & Florian Schlick-Steiner, Innsbruck
Mike McKinney, Knoxville
Lorenzo Marini, Padova
Alessandro Chiarucci,
Siena
Susanne Fritz, Copenhagen
Ottmar Holdenrieder, Zurich
Peter Weisberg, Reno
Glen Powell, South Ken
Mathieu Moslonka-Lefebvre, Paris
Tom Harwood, Canberra
Caroline Pecher, Bozen
ReferencesJokimäki J, Kaisanlahti-Jokimäki M-L, Suhonen J, Clergeau P, Pautasso M & Fernández-Juricic E (2011) Merging wildlife community ecology and animal behavioral ecology for a better urban landscape planning. Landscape & Urban Planning 100: 383-385Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Finley A, Dorigatti I, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Harwood T, Jeger MJ, Xu XM, Holdenrieder O & Pautasso M (2011) Networks in plant epidemiology: from genes to landscapes, countries and continents. Phytopathology 101: 392-403Pautasso M, Böhning-Gaese K, Clergeau P, Cueto VR, Dinetti M, Fernandez-Juricic E, Kaisanlahti-Jokimäki ML, Jokimäki J, McKinney ML, Sodhi NS, Storch D, Tomialojc L, Weisberg PJ, Woinarski J, Fuller RA & Cantarello E (2011) Global macroecology of bird assemblages in urbanized and semi-natural ecosystems. Global Ecology & Biogeography 20: 426-436Barbosa AM, Fontaneto D, Marini L & Pautasso M (2010) Is the human population a large-scale indicator of the species richness of ground beetles? Anim Cons 13: 432-441Barbosa AM, Fontaneto D, Marini L & Pautasso M (2010) Positive regional species–people correlations: a sampling artefact or a key issue for sustainable development? Animal Conservation 13: 446-447Cantarello E, Steck CE, Fontana P, Fontaneto D, Marini L & Pautasso M (2010) A multi-scale study of Orthoptera species richness and human population size controlling for sampling effort. Naturwissenschaften 97: 265-271Chiari C, Dinetti M, Licciardello C, Licitra G & Pautasso M (2010) Urbanization and the more-individuals hypothesis. Journal of Animal Ecology 79: 366-371Dehnen-Schmutz K, Holdenrieder O, Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2010) Structural change in the international horticultural industry: some implications for plant health. ScientiaHorticulturae 125: 1-15Golding J, Güsewell S, Kreft H, Kuzevanov VY, Lehvävirta S, Parmentier I & Pautasso M (2010) Species-richness patterns of the living collections of the world's botanic gardens: a matter of socio-economics? Annals of Botany 105: 689-696MacLeod A, Pautasso M, Jeger M & Haines-Young R (2010) Evolution of the international regulation of plant pests & challenges for future plant health. Food Security 2: 49-70 Pautasso M (2010) Worsening file-drawer problem in the abstracts of natural, medical and social science databases. Scientometrics 85: 193-202Pautasso M & Pautasso C (2010) Peer reviewing interdisciplinary papers. European Review 18: 227-237Pautasso M & Schäfer H (2010) Peer review delay and selectivity in ecology journals. Scientometrics 84: 307-315Pautasso M, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Holdenrieder O, Pietravalle S, Salama N, Jeger MJ, Lange E & Hehl-Lange S (2010) Plant health and global change – some implications for landscape management. Biological Reviews 85: 729-755Pautasso M, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Jeger MJ (2010) The number of links to and from the starting node as a predictor of epidemic size in small-size directed networks. Ecological Complexity 7: 424-432 Pautasso M, Xu XM, Jeger MJ, Harwood T, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Pellis L (2010) Disease spread in small-size directed trade networks: the role of hierarchical categories. Journal of Applied Ecology 47: 1300-1309Pecher C, Fritz S, Marini L, Fontaneto D & Pautasso M (2010) Scale-dependence of the correlation between human population and the species richness of stream macroinvertebrates. Basic Applied Ecology 11: 272-280Harwood TD, Xu XM, Pautasso M, Jeger MJ & Shaw M (2009) Epidemiological risk assessment using linked network and grid based modelling: Phytophthora ramorum and P. kernoviae in the UK. Ecological Modelling 220: 3353-3361 Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2009) Disease spread in small-size directed networks: epidemic threshold, correlation between links to and from nodes, and clustering. Journal of Theoretical Biology 260: 402-411
References (bis)Pautasso M (2009) Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest trees. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Systematics and Evolution 11: 157-189Pautasso M & Dinetti M (2009) Avian species richness, human population and protected areas across Italy’s regions. Environmental Conservation 36: 22-31Pautasso M & Powell G (2009) Aphid biodiversity is correlated with human population in European countries. Oecologia 160: 839-846Pautasso M & Zotti M (2009) Macrofungal taxa and human population in Italy's regions. Biodiversity & Conservation 18: 473-485Xu XM, Harwood TD, Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2009) Spatio-temporal analysis of an invasive plant pathogen (Phytophthora ramorum) in England and Wales. Ecography 32: 504-516Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2008) Comparative epidemiology of zoosporic plant pathogens. European Journal of Plant Pathology 122: 111-126Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2008) Plant disease and global change – the importance of long-term data sets. New Phytologist 177: 8-11Lonsdale D, Pautasso M & Holdenrieder O (2008) Wood-decaying fungi in the forest: conservation needs and management options. European Journal of Forest Research 127: 1-22 Pautasso M & Chiarucci A (2008) A test of the scale-dependence of the species abundance-people correlation for veteran trees in Italy. Annals of Botany 101: 709-715 Pautasso M & Fontaneto D (2008) A test of the species-people correlation for stream macro-invertebrates in European countries. Ecological Applications 18: 1842-1849Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2008) Epidemic threshold and network structure: the interplay of probability of transmission and of persistence in directed networks. Ecological Complexity 5: 1-8Pautasso M & Weisberg PJ (2008) Density-area relationships: the importance of the zeros. Global Ecology and Biogeography 17: 203-210Schlick-Steiner B, Steiner F & Pautasso M (2008) Ants and people: a test of two mechanisms behind the large-scale human-biodiversity correlation for Formicidae in Europe. J of Biogeography 35: 2195-2206Steck CE & Pautasso M (2008) Human population, grasshopper and plant species richness in European countries. Acta Oecologica 34: 303-310Jeger MJ, Pautasso M, Holdenrieder O & Shaw MW (2007) Modelling disease spread and control in networks: implications for plant sciences. New Phytologist 174: 179-197 Pautasso M (2007) Scale-dependence of the correlation between human presence and plant/vertebrate species richness. Ecology Letters 10: 16-24 Pautasso M & McKinney ML (2007) The botanist effect revisited: plant species richness, county area and human population size in the US. Conservation Biology 21, 5: 1333-1340 Pautasso M & Parmentier I (2007) Are the living collections of the world’s botanical gardens following species-richness patterns observed in natural ecosystems? BotanicaHelvetica 117: 15-28 Pautasso M & Gaston KJ (2006) A test of the mechanisms behind avian generalized individuals-area relationships. Global Ecology and Biogeography 15: 303-317 Pautasso M & Gaston KJ (2005) Resources and global avian assemblage structure in forests. Ecology Letters 8: 282-289Pautasso M, Holdenrieder O & Stenlid J (2005) Susceptibility to fungal pathogens of forests differing in tree diversity. In: Forest Diversity and Function (Scherer-Lorenzen M, Koerner Ch & Schulze D, eds.). Ecol. Studies Vol. 176. Springer, Berlin, pp. 263-289 Holdenrieder O, Pautasso M, Weisberg PJ & Lonsdale D (2004) Tree diseases and landscape processes: the challenge of landscape pathology. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 19, 8: 446-452
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