Past forest and land fires in SEA: What did we learn?

Past forest and land fires in SEA:What did we learn?Daniel Murdiyarso

Outline• Introduction

• El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – a teleconnection

• Is fire a problem?

• SEA fire history• Fires can have differentiated impacts

• GHG emissions• Transboundary haze pollution• Health

• Addressing fires and haze

ENSO – a teleconnection

This week

SST Anomaly (oC) for Nino 3.4

Tahiti-Darwin SOI

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

IOD and SOI predictability: rainfall and NDVI

IOD

SOI

IOD & SOI

Source: Adiningsih and Murdiyarso, 2009

But….. El-Nino has never been the cause

Daily Average PSI in Klang Valley (Sep 1997)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1-S

ep

8-S

ep

15-

Se

p

22-

Se

p

29-

Se

p

KLPJKajangKelangS. AlamGombakP

M10

(g/

m3 )

(Source: Noor, et al., 1998)

Daily Average PSI in Singapore(2013)

Fire emissions2000-2006 (moderate El Nino)• Southeast Asia = 128 + 51 Tg C/y• Borneo = 74 + 33 Tg C/y• Sumatra = 49 + 39 Tg C/y

(van der Werf et al. 2008)

1997 (strong El Nino)• Indonesia = 2.12 Mha burnt• C release = 2570 Tg C

(Page et al. 2002)

Fire Danger Rating Systems

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Addressing fires and haze

Mapping the impacts and responses

days year years decades

Spa

tial s

cale

Temporal scale

Global

Regional

National

Landscape

Patch Post-fireNutrient releases

Vegetation successiondynamics

Damages to propertyand crops

Altered human access

Landscape fragmentationand mosaic structure

Elevated watershedsediment exports

Improving local capacities to manage altered fire regimes

Changes in landdevelopment policies

Regionalatmospheric haze

Regional cooperation on early warningsystems and fire-fighting capacities

Technical assistance programs

Greenhouse gas emissions impacts on climate

Key messages

• In the last three decades fire regimes in SEA has changed considerably due to anthropogenic factors

• Fires still part of land management tool• Zero burning may not be a viable policy• Haze as problems: symptom, transboundary, health• Fire fighting and early warning system are in place• Addressing the underlying causes of fires are more

challenging