Pandemic Flu Scenario Final

Benton County, MN

Pandemic Flu TabletopExercise

May 23rd, 2007

EOC

What it consists of,

Who is part of it.

NIMS/ICS

Non – Attribution Clause

The material discussed today is classified as FOUO (for official use only)

A non-attribution clause is also in effect for today’s events.

Simply put what is discussed in this room stays in this room.

For Official Use Only (FOUO): The term used within DHS to identify unclassified information of a sensitive nature, not otherwise categorized by statute or regulation, the unauthorized disclosure of which could adversely impact a person's privacy or welfare, the conduct of Federal programs, or other programs or operations essential to the national interest.FOUO is not to be considered classified information.

To Minimize the Risk is to Create a Greater Danger!

Preparation is the Key to Success

Today Sept., 06

July, 07

It is not an IFIF Question? It is a WHENWHEN Question?

Pandemic Flu

BUT FIRST

Some Background

Basic Flu Facts – Flu 101

Bird Flu - 101

Pandemic Flu - 101

Flu Season Is Here

Seasonal Flu 101

Basic Facts

Current Flu Report

INFLUENZAINFLUENZA

Seasonal FluThe Flu Kills More People Today than it did Seventy Years Ago.

Over-Reaction

Seasonal Flu vs. Common Cold

GERMS

How do we prevent the flu?

There are a number of ways and one of them is by washingyour hands.

Cover Your Cough Cough Safe

Cover Your Cough

Get A Flu Shot

Information Services Solution

Pat B.

Avian Flu

Avian (Bird) Flu 101

Avian Flu Update

Bird (Avian) Flu

How Does One Get it?

Background Information… The World Health Organization (WHO) continues

to monitor the prolonged existence of H5N1. The current WHO Pandemic Alert phase is at 3.

Human infections of this new virus subtype have been detected in Asia.

Where is it, Now?

2003 – April 11, 2007

How at Risk are we in the US?

Background Information Surveillance of migratory birds for highly

pathogenic H5N1 continues across the United States.

The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (DNR) along with the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) - Animal Plant and Health Inspection Service (APHIS), Wildlife Services are conducting the surveillance in Minnesota.

Bird Flu 101

The Bird Flu or Another

How it Mutates

Who is the Puddy Tat afraid of now?

Noah’s Response to Bird Flu

How Some Countries are Responding to Bird Flu

Other Bird Flu Headlines

What is it?

Flu Timeline

What Level of Warning Are We At Now?

How bad could it get?

Benton/Stearns Sick/Clinic

12,000

Benton/Stearns Hospitalized

This is not a worse case scenario

Break – 15 minutes

Now onto our Tabletop

Presentation

What Major Players Need to be Involved?

Public Sector Private Sector Religious Sector Volunteer Sector Others

General Pandemic Flu NotesA pandemic will come in waves, 2 possibly 3

Each wave will last 6 – 8 weeks long

2nd wave may occur within 3-9 months of first wave

2nd wave may cause more serious illness and death

Outside assistant will be limited based on the outbreak

General Goals

Delay– The spread so there is time for a vaccine

Lessen– The demand for scarce healthcare resources

Reduce– The number of people affected.

Bird Flu Makes the Jump

Prologue

Today – May 23rd

It’s Coming! Confirmed – Bird flu has made the jump to

humans.

First wide spread outbreak has occurred in Asia.

Thousands reported sick.

Day 1

World Health Organization Raises Alert to Phase 5

What Implications Does This Have for your Department? Does this increase in the WHO alert status

cause you any concerns? What can you do to prepare for the inevitable

spread of the pandemic to America? List the steps you would take. What questions would you have of public

health?

Take 5 minutes to look at your plan

June 15th –Flu Spreads to California

The first cases of the Pandemic Flu have now been found in California– CDC Officials. WHO goes to Phase 6.

During the past week what precautions/steps have you taken?

Is there anything more you can do for your department at this point?

What questions do you have?

June 21st , 2007 – Flu Spreads Throughout Country

June 25th - Pandemic Flu in MinnesotaIt’s Here

Several Pandemic Flu cases have shown up in Minnesota.

LUNCH TIME – 1 hour

First Minnesota Case

June 30th , 2007 – Flu Spreads in Minnesota

Flu cases have now spread throughout Minnesota, no County has been untouched.

Cases in Benton County are rapidly multiplying.

Effects on County Workers

Sixty employees out sick another 20 stay home as caregivers.

Entire departments out sick. Workers required to work in other

departments. Departments close altogether

BREAK – 15 minutes

August- Flu WorsensIt’s Bad!

Thousands Sick/Hundreds Dead - Statewide

Infrastructure Starts to Break Down

Benton County Numbers - Residents

12,000 sick another 4,000 out as caregivers 6,000 require outpatient health care 720 sent to hospitals 108 require Intensive Care 54 require ventilators 120 deaths These numbers represent an above average Pandemic - If it is a SEVERE

Pandemic like 1918 the numbers for Hospitals, Intensive Care, Ventilators and Deaths would be 2X+ higher

THESE NUMBERS ARE FOR ONE MONTH

August – September – Cases Receding

Vaccine is now available for dispensing 1st wave appears to be winding down Question as to if schools should open Officials say second wave is inevitable

Where do we go from here?

Public Health Staff must prepare for mass dispensing of vaccine.

Flu supplies need to be replenished if they even can be found.

Actions during this first wave need to be reviewed.

Some Good News!

Questions & More Questions

Don’t Let Pogo be Right!

Other Strategies

Alternating shifts to reduce employee contact with each other

Changing the work space to every other desk

Staggered shifts

Working from home

Hoarding and the limits of just-in-time production and trans-portation systems will impact the availability of supplies, food,etc.

Bird Flu

Doomsday Clock

Chaos Clocks

WHO Pandemic Alert Levels