Grunewald Economic Case

Rob Grunewald Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

The Economic Case for Investments in Young

Children

Educational Characteristics of the Labor ForceMillions of Workers Age 25 and Over

Source: Ellwood (2001)

Four Numbers to Remember

700 per second

18 months

2:1 ratio

3:1 odds

4

Human Brain

at Birth

6 Years Old

14 Years Old

Human Brain DevelopmentSynapse Formation Dependent on Early Experiences

FIRST YEAR

-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Birth (Months) (Years)

Sensory Pathways(Vision, Hearing)

LanguageHigher Cognitive Function

Source: C. Nelson (2000)

Barriers to Social Mobility Emerge at a Very Young Age

16 mos. 24 mos. 36 mos.

Cu

mu

lati

ve V

ocab

ula

ry (

Word

s)

College Educated Parents

Welfare Parents

Child’s Age (Months)

200

600

1200

Source: Hart & Risley (1995)

Risk Factors for Adult Substance Abuse are Embedded in Adverse Childhood

Experiences

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0 1 2 3 4

Self-Report: Alcoholism Self-Report: Illicit Drugs

Source: Dube et al, 2002 Source: Dube et al, 2005

% %

ACEs

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 1 2 3 4 5+

Risk Factors for Adult Depression are Embedded in Adverse Childhood Experiences

Od

ds R

ati

o

ACEsSource: Chapman et al, 2004

0 1 2 3 4 5+

1

2

4

3

5

Risk Factors for Adult Heart Disease are Embedded in Adverse Childhood Experiences

ACEs Source: Dong et al, 2004

Od

ds R

ati

o

0 1 2 3 4 5,6 7,8

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

High/Scope Study of Perry Preschool

• In early 1960s, 123 children from low-income families in Ypsilanti, Mich.

• Children randomly selected to attend Perry or control group.

• High-quality program with well trained teachers, daily classroom sessions and weekly home visits.

• Tracked participants and control group through age 40.

Perry: Educational Effects

Source: High/Scope Educational Research Foundation

Perry: Economic Effects at Age 40

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Have a savings account

Earned $25,000+

Own home

Program group No-program group

Source: High/Scope Educational Research Foundation

Perry: Arrested 5 or More Times Before Age 40

Source: High/Scope Educational Research Foundation

Perry: Average Number of Months Served in Prison by Age 40

Source: High/Scope Educational Research Foundation

Perry PreschoolCosts and Benefits Over 62 Years

-$20

,000

$20,

000

$60,

000

$100

,000

$140

,000

Welfare Payments

Crime Victims

Justice System

Higher Participants' Earnings

K-12 Ed

Program Cost

For Public For ParticipantSource: High/Scope Educational

Research Foundation

Perry Preschool — Estimated Return on Investment

• Benefit-Cost Ratio = $16 to $1

• Annual Rate of Return = 18%

• Public Rate of Return = 16%

Abecedarian, Educational Child Care

Full-day, year-round program near Chapel

Hill, N.C. Children from low-income families were randomly selected to attend Abecedarian or control group.

Abecedarian: Educational and Health Effects

Attended a Four-Year College

Non-Smoker at Age 21

Didn't Repeat a Grade

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Program group No-program group

Source: Carolina Abecedarian Study

Chicago Child-Parent Centers

Half-day, large-scale program in Chicago public schools. Comparison group was a sample of eligible nonparticipants.

Chicago Child-Parent Centers

Juvenile Arrests

High School Comple-tion

Didn't require special education

0% 10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Program group No-program group

Source: Arthur Reynolds, et al.

Elmira Prenatal/Early Infancy ProjectHigher-Risk Families

Home visiting program by registered nurses for at-risk mothers, prenatal through first two years of child’s life. Randomly selected participants were compared with a control group.

Elmira Prenatal/Early Infancy ProjectHigh-Risk Families

Months on Welfare

Child Arrests, Through Age 15

Child Emergency Room Visits, Ages 25 to 50 Months

-60% -40% -20% 0%

Percent Change, Program Group Compared with No-Program Group

Source: David Olds, et al.

Benefit-Cost Ratios for Other Longitudinal Studies

• Abecedarian Educational Child Care – $4 to $1

• Chicago-Child Parent– $7 to $1

• Elmira Prenatal/Early Infancy Project – $5 to $1

Short-Run Benefits

• Allow parents to enter workforce

• Reduce absenteeism and turnover

• Attract businesses

Lessons Learned from Research

• Invest in quality

• Involve parents

• Start early

• Reach at-risk population

• Teach cognitive and noncognitive skills

• Bring to scale

Moving Forward

• Prenatal/early infant home visits for at-risk mothers

• Access to health care

• Parent education

• Quality child care

• Access to preschool

Business Leadership in Early Childhood Development

• Partnership for America’s Economic Success & Committee for Economic Development

• Success By 6 – United Way

• PNC Financial Services, Gates Foundation

• Minnesota Early Learning Foundation

“Although education and the acquisition of skills is a lifelong process, starting early in life is crucial. Recent research – some sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in collaboration with the University of Minnesota – has documented the high returns that early childhood programs can pay in terms of subsequent educational attainment and in lower rates of social problems, such as teenage pregnancy and welfare dependency.”

Remarks by Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben S. Bernanke

Before the Greater Omaha Chamber of Commerce,

February 6, 2007

minneapolisfed.org