View
79
Download
2
Category
Tags:
Preview:
DESCRIPTION
Please contact me at lee.hannah@psu.edu for original files.
Citation preview
Day 8 –The Electoral Game
July 9, 2013
PA National Congressional Districts
Source: http://www.redistricting.state.pa.us/Maps/House.cfm
Pennsylvania State House Map
Source: http://aws.redistricting.state.pa.us/Redistricting/Resources/GISData/Districts/Legislative/House/2011-Revised-Final/PDF/2011-Revised-Final-Plan-Map-House.pdf
Pennsylvania State Senate Map
Source: http://aws.redistricting.state.pa.us/Redistricting/Resources/GISData/Districts/Legislative/Senate/2011-Revised-Final/PDF/2011-Revised-Final-Plan-Map-Senate.pdf
Running for Higher Office – Previous Assumptions Expected utility of winning a higher office - E(Uh)
E(Uh) = phBh – Ch
Expected utility of retaining the current, lower office -E(Ul) E(Ul) = plBl – Cl
Under this assumption, an ambitious politician will attempt to move to higher office when: E(Uh) = phBh – Ch > E(Ul) = plBl – Cl
What is problematic about this assumption?
Running for Higher Office – A Two-Stage Decision Process Maestas and colleagues argue that there is a stable
disposition, or function, that each legislator holds. Stage 1 Progressive Ambition = f(E(UA)
= pgenBmarg – Cmarg + M)
Where pgen is the long-run probability of winning office
Bmarg is the expected gain from the target office
Cmarg is the expected costs from running for the target office M = personal motivations outside of the cost-benefit analysis
Those who enter Stage 2 have already crossed a threshold level of ambition.
Stage 2 Pr(Run | Progressive Ambition > 0 = f(Pt, pgen,Ct,)
f(E(UA)
= pgenBmarg – Cmarg + M)pgen Bmarg Cmarg M
Estimation of winning the party nomination.
Assessment of prestige and effectiveness in U.S. House career.
Family-cost index Desire to make social or business contacts
Estimation of chances of winning the general election.
Assessment relative to current position in state government.
Campaign-cost index
Perception of district partisan balance.
Signals from party.
Results
What is this model predicting?
Moving to the Second Stage f(E(UA) = pgenBmarg – Cmarg + M)
If f(E(UA)) > 0, then they are scored as ‘1’ (i.e. ambitious)
If f(E(UA)) ≤ 0, then then they are scored as ‘0’ (i.e. not ambitious)
Interviews
N = 597
F(E(UA))1
0
N = 263
N = 334
Discussion How do the authors connect their findings to
political responsiveness? What are the implications for their findings? What can they not determine from this study? How might this study be extended?
Making It: The Electoral Game Asking the right questions
What constituency to win over How to become familiar to voters Which leaders or groups to garner support How to reach voters most effectively
Choosing the message Effective, simple, repeatable brand
Messaging in Campaign Ads Sen. Ron Johnson (R – WI)
“We’re just a Wisconsin family worried about our country.” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8MSP8yFSsY
Washington outsider - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YzsIsBLJCCg
Had enough of these phony political commercials? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMExLKHUyg0
Sen. Jim Webb (D – VA) Appealing to the other side.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEmjJIk8ga0 Rep. Morgan Griffith (R – VA)
Association - Obama Loves Rick Boucher - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B7t8b42ZiTo
Policy - Cap and Trade - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxj_ko_Uz3g
Choosing the Wrong Message Daniel Freilich (D – VT) for Senate
“I’m on a Cow” http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=4I9h2d8hw6g#at=24
Rep. Alan Grayson (D – FL) Taliban Dan - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bWdyf9eSkqQ
Paul R. Nelson (R – WI) for House Ron Kind, The Wrong Kind -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rx5LNXi5hwg Carly Fiorina (R – CA) candidate for Senate
Demon Sheep - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vlgU23QGksI
Way too far. http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/mitt-romney-ad-1/n27669/
Fundraising “I’d rather wrestle a gorilla than ask anybody for fifty
cents.” Senator John Glenn (D - Ohio) Sources of Congressional candidate funds:
1) Individual contributors $2,400 per candidate $45,600 per election
2) PACS 3) Party Committees 4) Personal Funds
Incumbents always do better. Why? House incumbents outspent challengers six times over in 2010. Senate incumbents outspent 11 times over in 2010.
2012 Spending in PA Races http://www.opensecrets.org/states/cands.php?state=PA&cycle=
2012
Can you buy votes? Not exactly. Challengers
Spending is positively correlated with electoral success.
Incumbents Spending negatively correlated with electoral
success. Why? Spending matters less later in campaign
races.
Campaign Techniques Air Wars
Positive vs. Negative ads – what are the tradeoffs? Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA) of 2002
Requires candidates personally appear with their advertisements. Evolving mass media
“Word of mouth on steroids.” The Ground War
“Pressing the flesh.” Get out the vote (GOTV) drives
Parallel Campaigns Outside players – Freedom Watch – “Dina Titus must be from
TaxUs” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5O7rwAj6G4 Citizens United v. FEC - Corporate spending
http://www.oyez.org/cases/2000-2009/2008/2008_08_205 Super PACs
Recommended