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Challenges for the Optimal Allocation of Aid: Should MDG Priorities be More Prominent?
Christopher ColcloughUniversity of Cambridge
Criteria of ‘need’ based upon:
MDG Target for Goal 2 – UPE by 2015
MDG Target for Goal 3 – No gender disparities by 2015
UK aid to education 2005/6 and out-of-school children
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
0 20000000 40000000 60000000 80000000 100000000 120000000
UK education aid
ou
t-o
f-s
ch
oo
l ch
ildre
n
Bangladesh
Uganda
Ghana
Nigeria
Kenya
India
Mozambique
Rw anda
Pakistan
South AfricaMalaysia
Cambodia
China
Ethiopia
Sudan
Out-of-school children and UK aid to education
Countries Scaling up country
Low income country
PSA country Out-of-school children (000)
2004
DFID bilateralspending on
education 05/6
Nigeria4
DR CongoPakistan 5 ChinaIndiaEthiopiaSudanSaudi ArabiaNigerAfghanistan 7
Burkina FasoKenyaCote D'IvoireMaliGhanaSomalia 6
Mozambique4
*** *** * * ***
*** *** *********
8109.66512.06463.05555.04583.03615.02562.01425.01326.01288.01271.01226.01223.01172.01129.01126.01089.0
9,815,850148,119
1,016,0172,225,297
97,885,1601,935,7272,404,221
5,478,318
19,798,722
13,694,255
Totals 49674.6 154,401,686
Global Total 76800.0 308,473,321
% of Global total 64.7 50
UK aid to education 2005/6 and out-of-school children (excl. India)
0.0
1000.0
2000.0
3000.0
4000.0
5000.0
6000.0
7000.0
8000.0
9000.0
0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000
UK education aid
ou
t-o
f-s
ch
oo
l ch
ildre
n
Bangladesh
Tanzania
Ghana
Rw anda
Mozambique
Zambia
UgandaVietnam
Malaw i
Kenya
Nepal
South Africa
Nigeria
DR Congo
Pakistan
China
Sierra Leone
YemenColumbia
The GambiaIndonesia
Ethiopia
Sudan
NERs and per capita income 2005
0.000
0.200
0.400
0.600
0.800
1.000
1.200
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000
GNI per capita
To
tal p
rim
ary
NE
R
MaltaKuw ait
UAE
Saudi Arabia
Bahamas
Oman
Mexico
Lebanon
TajikistanArgentina
Brazil
TanzaniaIndia
Somalia
DR Congo
NigerBurkina Faso
Liberia
Bangladesh
Ghana
Rw anda
Kenya
Turkey
Primary education: pupil/teacher ratios and survival to the last grade, 2001
UK aid to education and NER/survival rates
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000
DFID aid to education
Ind
ex
0 N
ER
/Su
rviv
al
BangladeshTanzania
Ghana
Rw anda
Zambia
Mozambique
Uganda
Nigeria
VietnamSouth Africa
ChinaShri Lanka
Tajikistan
Botsw ana
Kenya
Malaw iNepal
Sierra Leone
Sudan
Yemen
DR Congo
BurundiPakistan
The GambiaEthiopia
LiberiaNicaragua
Cambodia
IndonesiaPeru
Priorities for the allocation of education aid, based upon different
‘needs’ criteria Out of
school ranking
Ranking on Index 2
Index 2 ranking
Nigeria 1 4 DR Congo
DR Congo 2 1 Somalia
Pakistan 3 3 Pakistan
China 4 36 Nigeria
India 5 26 Chad
Ethiopia 6 9 Afghanistan
Sudan 7 25 Niger
Saudi Arabia 8 31 Guinea Bissau
Niger 9 7 Ethiopia
Afghanistan 10 6 Burkina Faso
Burkino Faso 11 10 Cote D’Ivoire
Kenya 12 34 Mozambique
Cote D’Ivoire 13 11 Mali
Mali 14 13 Burundi
Ghana 15 22 Eritrea
DFID aid to education vs NER/survival/gender (Index 1)
R2 = 0.1856
0.000
0.200
0.400
0.600
0.800
1.000
1.200
0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000
DFID aid to education
Ind
ex 1
Bangladesh
Tanzania
GhanaRw anda
Mozambique
Zambia
Uganda
Nigeria
Vietnam
Malaw i
South Africa
Kenya
Nepal
DR Congo
Sierra Leone
ChinaShri Lanka
Indonesia
Sudan
Yemen
The Gambia
Pakistan
DFID aid to education vs NER/survival/gender and out-of-school (Index 2)
R2 = 0.1703
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000
DFID aid to education
Ind
ex
2
BangaldeshTanzania
GhanaRw anda
Mozambique
Zambia
Uganda
Nigeria
VietnamSouth Africa
Malaw iNepal
KenyaChina
Sierra Leone
DR Congo
Pakistan
EthiopiaBurundi
Shri LankaIndonesia
Tajikistan
Sudan
DFID aid to education vs Index 2 (countries receiving DFID support only)
R2 = 0.2958
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000
DFID aid to education
Ind
ex 2
BangladeshTanzania
GhanaRw anda
Zambia
Uganda
Mozambique
Nigeria
Vietnam
Malaw i
South Africa
Kenya
Nepal
DR Congo
Pakistan
Ethiopia
Sierra Leone
China
Liberia Yemen
The Gambia
Shir LankaIndonesia
Total and UK aid to education compared
R2 = 0.1817
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
total aid to basic education per child
DF
ID a
id t
o b
asic
ed
uca
tio
n p
er c
hild
Rw anda
ZambiaGhana
Sierra LeoneMozambique
Gambia, The
Tanzania
Uganda
Malaw i
BangladeshNepal
Yemen
VietnamKenya
Burundi
SudanSomaliEthiopiaDR Congo
PakistanNigeria, Chad, Aphganistan
India
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