The Economy: How Are We Really Doing?

The Economy—How are We

REALLY doing?

THE FABLE OF THE BLIND MEN AND THE ELEPHANT

The Economy

Economic analysis based on monthly changes in data is misleading.

It’sFlying!

It’s going to crash!

It’s stagnating!

It’s in a recession!

It’s

hit a wall! It’sin

recovery!

“Economy Stagnates”

GDP Growing at a moderate rate

United States Real Gross Domestic Product

01112,600

12,700

12,800

12,900

13,000

13,100

13,200

13,300

13,400

13,500Billions of Chained Dollars

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-2.5%

Quarterly Change in U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Average Quarterly Change for the last 30 years—0.7 percent)

“Hiring Grinds to a Halt”

Jobs are Growing

United States Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Jobs

Jan-07Jul-0

Jan-08Jul-0

Jan-09Jul-0

Jan-10Jul-1

Jan-11Jul-1

Jan-12128,000

130,000

132,000

134,000

136,000

138,000

140,000

Thousands of Jobs

United StatesYear-Over Change in NonFarm Jobs

Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

U.S. Job Growth in Review

1.11.7 1.8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

U.S. Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs30-year average is 1.2 percent.

Utah Department of Workforce Services.

Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“Unemployment Still Stalled”

Unemployment is Trending Down

United States Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment

The Number of Discouraged U.S. Workers has declined along with the Unemployment Rate

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

12%Year-to-Year Change in Discouraged Workers

Unemployment Rate

Source. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Unemployment Insurance Claims “exploded.”

Claims are Trending Down

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

United States Four-Week Moving Average of Seasonally Adjusted

Initial Claims

Source: U.S. Department of Labor

“Retail Sales Disappoint”

Sales have grown consistently

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012140,000

145,000

150,000

155,000

160,000

165,000

170,000

175,000

180,000

185,000

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

United States Real Retail and Food Service Sales

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

United States Light Truck and Car Sales

“Manufacturing Index Plunges”

Manufacturing has steadily Improved

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 201280

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

United States Industrial Production Index

United States New Factory Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

“Housing Starts Surge”

Housing starts remain low. . .

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

United States Housing Starts

Beware. . .

Recently, the economic “spin” is more positive.

In the Interest of Full Disclosure

CRITICALMASS

Excuse me for nagging

1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968

U.S. Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs

Recessionary period as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

My Not-So-Secret Formula

• Year-Over Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs.– “Year-over” change between one month and the same

month the previous year. (March 2010 employment compared to March 2009 employment).

– Employment data is current and some of the best data around.

– It’s easy.– Available for small areas.– Not what the Bureau of Labor publishes in their press

release—not seasonally adjusted.

Most Importantly. . .

• It works!• Nationally, when year-

over growth rates trend down and eventually result in job loss, there has always a recession as defined by NBER.

The Local Story

Jan 2006

Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

Washington County United States Utah

Washington County Year-Over Job ChangeDecember 2011 (preliminary)

Mining

Construction

Manufacturing

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade

Transportation

Utilities

Information

Financial Activities

Prof/Business Svcs

Education/Health/Social Svcs

Leisure/Hospitality

Other Services

Government

Up 1,770 jobs total

Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs by Industry December 2010-December 2011

Government

Other Services

Leisure/Hospitality

Ed/Health/Social Svcs

Prof/Business Svcs

Information

Trade/Transportation/Utilities

Manufacturing

Construction

Mining

UtahWashington

Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services.

Washington County New Hires

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics.

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

New Hires

4-Qtr Moving Av-erage

Mining<1%

Construction7%

Manufacturing5%

Trade/ Trans-portation/Utili-

ties24%

Information2%

Financial Activi-ties4%

Professional/ Business Services

Education/ Health/ Social

Services17%

Leisure/ Hos-pitality Ser-

vices14%

Other Services3%

Government16%

Washington County Industry Em-ployment Distribution

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

6%Iron U.S. Utah

Source: Utah Dept of Workforce Services.

Mining

Construction

Manufacturing

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade

Transportation

Utilities

Information

Prof/Business Svcs

Leisure/Hospitality

Other Services

Government

Up 128 jobs total

Iron County Year-Over Job ChangeDecember 2011 (preliminary)

Government

Other Services

Leisure/Hospitality

Prof/Business Svcs

Information

Manufacturing

Construction

Mining

Iron County New Hires

Utah Department of Workforce Services.

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 20

New Hires

4-Qtr Moving Av-erage

Mining0%

Construction5%

Manufacturing9%

Trade/Transporta-tion/Utilities

Information1%

Financial Activities5%

Professional/ Business Services

Education/Health/Social

Services11%

Leisure/ Hospital-ity Services

Other Services2%

Government29%

Iron County Industry Employment Distribu-tion

Jan 2006

Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

United States Utah Kane County

Kane County Year-Over Job ChangeDecember 2011 (preliminary)

Mining

Construction

Manufacturing

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade

Transportation

Utilities

Information

Prof/Business Svcs

Leisure/Hospitality

Other Services

Government

Up 40 jobs total

Government

Other Services

Leisure/Hospitality

Prof/Business Svcs

Information

Manufacturing

Construction

Mining

Utah Kane

MiningNA

Construction3% Manufacturing

3% Trade/ Transporta-tion/ Utilities

InformationNA

Professional/Business Services

Education/Health/Social Services

Leisure/ Hospitality Services

Other Services15%

Government25%

Kane County 2011 Industry Employment Distribution

Kane County New Hires

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 20

1,200New Hires 4-Qtr Moving Average

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

-16%-14%-12%-10%

-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%

Beaver U.S. Utah

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

-16%-14%-12%-10%

-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%

Beaver Total

Beaver Without Construction

Beaver County Year-Over Job ChangeDecember 2011 (preliminary)

Mining

Construction

Manufacturing

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade

Transportation

Utilities

Information

Prof/Business Svcs

Leisure/Hospitality

Other Services

Government

Down 46 jobs total

Government

Other Services

Leisure/Hospitality

Prof/Business Svcs

Information

Manufacturing

Construction

Mining

Utah Beaver

Covered Agriculture19%

Mining1%

Construction6%

Manufacturing3%

Trade/Transportation/Utili-

ties21%

Information<1%

Professional and Business Services1%

Educational, Health and Social Services

Leisure and Hospitality14%

Other Services1%

Government28%

Beaver 2011 Industrial Employment Dis-tribution

Beaver County New Hires

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 20

New Hires 4-Qtr Moving Average

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

Garfield U.S. Utah

Garfield County Year-Over Job ChangeDecember 2011 (preliminary)

Mining

Construction

Manufacturing

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade

Transportation

Utilities

Information

Prof/Business Svcs

Leisure/Hospitality

Other Services

Government

Down 183 jobs total

Government

Other Services

Leisure/Hospitality

Prof/Business Svcs

Information

Manufacturing

Construction

Mining

-14.6%

-17.5%

-18.8%

-17.0%

-57.7%

Garfield

Construction3%

Manufacturing2%

Trade/ Transporta-tion/ Utilities

Professional/Business Services

Education/Health/ Social Services

Leisure/Hospitality Services

Other Services1%

Government28%

Garfield County Industry Employment Distribu-tion

Garfield County New Hires

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 20

New Hires4-Qtr Moving Average

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

Utah U.S.

Kane Washington

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

Utah U.S. Beaver Garfield

Washington County Change in Gross Taxable Sales

Source: Utah State Tax Commission.

-3%-3%-1%

-17%-14%

4% 3%7%

Iron County Change in Gross Taxable Sales

20%20%

-14%-16%-17%

-4%-4%-6%

-8%-6%

Kane County Change in Gross Taxable Sales

16%14%10%10%

9%5% 7%

Beaver County Change in Gross Taxable Sales

19%11%

16%14%19%

17%28%

Garfield County Change in Gross Taxable Sales

1% 1%4%

12%15%14%

-3%-8%

5% 5% 3%

Year-over Change in MSA Area Housing Price Index (HPI)

St. George

Salt Lake

Las Vegas

Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, http://www.ofheo.gov/hpi.aspx.

St. George MSA Housing Price Index

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

Housing Affordability Continues to Improve

1st Qtr

U.S.Washington County

Source: National Association of Homebuilders; Wells Fargo Bank.

Housing Opportunity Index—% of homes which are affordable to families with the median income.

“Serious” Foreclosure Rates June 2011

Salt Lake City MSA

Provo-Orem MSA

Ogden-Clearfield MSA

Logan MSA

St. George MSA

Las Vegas/Henderson MSA

Foreclosure Rate

90+ Days Deliquency Rate

Source:: Analysis of LPS applied Analytics data by Local Initiative Support Corporation.

June 2010-June 2011 Percentage Point Change in “Serious”

Foreclosure RatesSalt Lake City MSA

Provo-Orem MSA

Ogden-Clearfield MSA

Logan MSA

St. George MSA

Las Vegas/Henderson MSA

Source:: Analysis of LPS applied Analytics data by Local Initiative Support Corporation.

Washington County Dwelling Unit Permits

2,0191,929

1,5141,687

3,7943,860

682 605

870 846

* Source: U of U; Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

2009—lowest number since 1989. . .

Annual Change in Washington County New Dwelling Unit Permits

*January-October 2011.Source: University of Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

2011 Washington County New Dwelling Units by Community

Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.

Enterprise

Hurricane

LaVerkin

Santa Clara

Springdale

St. George

Virgin

Washington City

2011 Washington County Change in Permitted New Dwelling Units by Community

Enterprise

Hurricane

LaVerkin

Santa Clara

Springdale

St. George

Virgin

Washington City

Washington County Dwelling Unit Permits

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

5,000Home PermitsHomes SoldDifference

* Source: U of U; Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research; Utah Association of Realtors.

$30.7$37.4

$109.6

$107.5

$118.2

$176.9

$143.4

$119.2

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Washington County New Nonresidential

Building Permit Valuation

Millions of $

Washington County 2011Permit Values by Building Type

Single-family Homes Condominiums

Manufactured / Mobile Homes Residential Garages/Carports

Amusement & Recreation BldgsChurches & other Religious Bldgs

Industrial/Warehouse/Manufacturing BldgsService Station/Repair Garages

Hospital & Institutional BldgsOffice, Bank, Professional Bldgs

Public Utility Bldgs. (private) School & Educational Bldgs. (private)

Retail, Mercantile, Restaurant Agricultural Bldg. & Sheds Other Nonresidential BldgsStructures other than BldgsPublic Buildings & Projects

Additions and Alterations to Residential BldgsAdditions and Alterations to other Bldgs

$141,744$10,662

$441$1,683$1,342$2,534$2,255$850

$8,883$3,191

$316$26,058

$8,544$283$3,840

$8,849$724

$5,701$16,815

(Numbers in 000s)

276309

197140 119

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Iron County Dwelling Unit Permits

Annual Change in Iron County New Dwelling Unit Permits

2011 Iron New Dwelling Units by Community

Cedar City

Paragonah

Parowan

2011 Iron County Change in Permitted New Dwelling Units by Community

Cedar City

Paragonah

Parowan

$19.8 $20.0

$25.3$24.0

$13.2$14.5

$5.0 $4.4$3.2

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Iron County New Nonresidential Building Permit Valuation

Millions of $

Iron County 2011Permit Values by Building Type

Single-family Homes

Duplexes and Twin Homes

Manufactured / Mobile Homes

Residential Garages/Carports

Industrial/Warehouse/Manufacturing Bldgs

Public Utility Bldgs. (private)

Retail, Mercantile, Restaurant

Agricultural Bldg. & Sheds

Other Nonresidential Bldgs

Structures other than Bldgs

Public Buildings & Projects

Additions and Alterations to Residential Bldgs

Additions and Alterations to other Bldgs

$9,823

$1,408

$1,171

$4,932

(Numbers in 000s)

Kane County Dwelling Unit Permits

121131 125

135 128 132 135127

104122

Annual Change in Kane County New Dwelling Unit Permits

$1.4 $1.8

$5.1 $4.8

$1.9$0.8

$1.8$1.4 $1.7$1.1 $0.4

$3.2$4.1

$2.8$2.6

1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009

Kane County New Nonresidential

Millions of $

Kane County 2011Permit Values by Building Type

Single-family Homes

Duplexes and Twin Homes

Industrial/Warehouse/Manufacturing Bldgs

Public Utility Bldgs. (private)

Agricultural Bldg. & Sheds

$9,823

$1,408

$1,171

$4,932

(Numbers in 000s)

Beaver County Dwelling Unit Permits

Annual Change in Beaver County New Dwelling Unit Permits

$3,645.8

$15,910.8

$14,034.9

$3,198.9$3,061.0

$8,375.1

$3,029.3$3,157.1$3,430.5

$1,286.0$769.9$2,046.1

$7,913.3

$4,960.3

$27,656.5

$3,488.5$1,805.1

$10,547.5

1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009

Beaver County New Nonresidential

Thousands of $

Beaver County 2011Permit Values by Building Type

Single-family Homes

Agricultural Bldg & Sheds

Additions and Alterations to other Bldgs.

$1,906

$9,656

(Numbers in 000s)

Garfield County Dwelling Unit Permits

55 58 55 5461

Annual Change in Garfield County New Dwelling Unit Permits

$2,703.3

$1,557.9

$4,160.8

$1,689.6$1,903.8

$7,797.5

$4,291.0

$574.0$541.8

$2,543.9$1,902.2$2,196.0

$9,554.9

$2,631.6

$14,731.0

$2,325.7$3,130.0

$1,805.1

$6,025.0

1991 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

Garfield County New Nonresidential

Thousands of $

Garfield County 2011Permit Values by Building Type

Single-family Homes

Cabins

Office, Bank, Professional Bldgs

$2,991

$4,870

(Numbers in 000s)

The American Community Survey and You. . .

The American Community Survey provides vast variety of demographic/economic information is available on the local

level. It replaces the long-form from the Census.Funding for this vital program is in jeopardy.

Under 5 years

5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years

15 to 19 years

20 to 24 years

25 to 34 years

35 to 44 years

45 to 54 years

55 to 59 years

60 to 64 years

65 to 74 years

75 to 84 years

85 years and over

2006-2010 Age Distribution

United States Utah

Kane County

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; American Community Survey.

Percent high school graduate or higher Percent bachelor's degree or higher

2006-2010 Educational Attainment

Kane County

United States

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; American Community Survey.

Local Employment Dynamics

• Geographic Flexibility• Worker Profile

– Age– Education– Gender– Race/Ethnicity– Wages– Industry

• Worker Flows• Mapping

Age 29 or younger

Age 30 to 5456%

Age 55 or older21%

Workers Working in LaVerkin

$1,250 or less

$1,251 to $3,333

More than

$3,33326%

Earnings per Month

continue.

provedata

economy improving;

should

(435) 688-3115Lecia Parks Langston

lecialangston@utah.gov

jobs.utah.govClick on “Labor Market Information”

economyutah.blogspot.com

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