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www.andrewbusch.com
Future Growth
Problems and Solutions
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Problems and Solutions
US & Texas Economic Situation
2016 Presidential Race
Future Growth
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2.1%#2
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-1.7MM+46K
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<2.0%+0.9%
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+25%+100%
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$11T<0%Quiz Time!
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Productivity=Growth
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“There are limits to what monetary policy can and, indeed, should, do. The burden must also fall on fiscal and other policies to do their part to help
create conditions conducive to economic stability.”
SF Fed President John Williams
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Fed solution summary
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Policy solutions for growth
Free Trade=lower tariffs
Reg. Relief=reduced costs
Tax reform=capital formation w/incentives
Infrastructure=efficiency
Energy Production
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His econ & tax planCut Corp Tax to 15%
Limit Pass Thru 15%
1x 10% Repat Tax
Ag TPP and NAFTAImpose tariffs on imported goods
Big Drop in InterestDeductibility
New $500B infrastructure Full expensing!
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100 day energy & reg plan
Save coal industry, Pass Keystone, Lift moratorium for energy on Fed. lands
Cancel Paris Climate Agreement
Rescind and Reform: Obama executive actions,
Climate Action Plan, WOTUS, Obamacare,
Dodd-Frank
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Trump plans help/hurt
Help: big tech & big pharma
Hurt: debt heavy balance sheets
Help: industrials & manufacturers
Hurt: free trade
Help: energy production
Help: Transportation/Engineering
Help: financial sector
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Her econ & tax plan
Fair share C tax
No Free Trade
Exit Tax
$275B Infrastructure plan
Extend/expand Obama regulation
programs
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Big change to cap gains
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Fin reg & energy plan
500mln solar panels by 2021Implement Clean Power Plan &
Paris Agreements$60B Clean energy challenge
Risk fee on the largest financial institutionsNo hedge fund investing
Hold senior bankers accountable for lossesNo financial firm is ever too big or too risky
HFT tax, close carried interest
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Clinton plans help/hurtHurt: raises taxes on top earners/
capital formation
Help: transportation/enginering
Help: energy/alternatives
Hurt: energy/hydrocarbon production
Hurt: financial sector
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Trump simple & lower
Source: Tax Foundation
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Clinton good, bad & complicated
Source: Tax Foundation
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2016 RecapClinton:
biz tax hikes build on regscap gains taxno free trade
big alternativesbig infra
create pathway enhance D-F
Trump: biz tax cutsreduce regs
full expensingno free trade
big hydro carbon big infra
build a wallend D-F
DJT HRC
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What is the hope?
Trump is a “businessman”
Clinton is a “compromiser”
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Policy solution summary
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New Key Election Developments
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Future Growth Solutions
AI, Big Data, Analytics
Insurtech: disruptive vs. collaborative
Millenials: visual, social, digital
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Big Data, Analytics, AI
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Insurtech
Collaborative: Openbay, Understory,Cyence
Disruptive: Metromile, PolicyGenius,Lemonade (P2P), Zebra
Fintech startups don’t care about regulations.
They’ll figure it out later.
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Big challenge, big opportunity
Digital natives, distrust of big, community focused
Giving HOPE
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Tech solution summary
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Future growth takeaways
Fed=we’re finished
Politics=we haven’t started
Future growth: get started!
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Final Thoughts…
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