Supreme World Wheat Presentation (May 2014)

WORLD WHEATSource: US Wheat Associates monthly supply and demand report, found on

their website: http://www.uswheat.org/

The World Wheat Market

Year

Production

Consumption

Surplus (shortfall)

12/13 13/14 14/15

657 714 697

679 703 696

-22 11 1

0 2

World Production and Use

0 3

Supplies in Top Exporting Countries*

0 4Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, and EU-27.

Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.

World wheat supply & demand

Date 12/13 13/14 14/15

Supply

Trade

Demand

Ending

stocks

197 175 187

657 714 697

855 889 884

137 162 152

543 570 568

137 133 128

679 703 696

175 187 187

Exports/imports

Beginning stock

Production

Supply total

Food & seed

Feed & residual

Use tool

0 5

Global Stocks* -to-Use Ratio

0 6*Ending stocks

Global Ending Stocks and Price

0 7

World Ending Stocks

0 8

International Wheat Factors

Global wheat production projected to reach 697 MMT, down 2% from 2013/14 but

second highest on record.

Total global supply estimate at 884 MMT; 5.76 MMT lower than 2013/14.

World consumption forecast to fall 1% to 696 MMT, second highest on record and up

3% from 5-year average.

World beginning stocks expected to increase by 6% from 2013/14 to 187 MMT.

Argentinian production to increase 19% to 12.5 MMT.

0 9

Australia Situation

0 10

Black Sea Exports

0 11

EU-27 Situation

0 12

Date

Opening stock

Production

Imports

489

Consumption

Exports

Closing stock

1870

1650*

3245

248

516

13/14*

Supply & demand of wheat in South Africa (‘000 tons)

0 13

Local Wheat Drivers

Limited small crop – 1,870 million tons (need to import 43% of requirement) = import

parity driven

Large European and Black sea crop expected as larger Argentine crop keeping

pressure on world prices in spite of poor US HRW crop this season

Besides the recent US weather dryness, the largest driver of local prices is the currency

(Rand).

Another important driver is the pace of actual imports i.e. by 16 May 2014 – 982 120

tons imported vs. imports needed to date to balance supply = 1 031 250 tons.

0 14

0 15

0 16