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Economic outlook for the Euro Area
Matthieu Grouès,
C.I.O.
Indicators point to another quarter of small contraction
Uncertainty has been on a rising trend
The recession owes as much to uncertainty than to fiscal tightening
Fiscal retrenchment will remain a drag on growth
The Euro has not been that weak for ten years
This should help exports
Corporate investment never really rebounded
The change in inventories is already very negative
What to expect next year?
The euro area crisis is as much a crisis of budget
balances as of current accounts
Some countries have corrected both imbalances
Some have had more mixed results
The ECB has been very proactive
But there are wide disparities in financial conditions
between countries, hence the last annoucements
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