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World Development Report 2008
“75% of the world’s poor are rural and most are involved in
farming. Agriculture remains a
fundamental instrument for development and poverty reduction”
Agriculture for Development
Preliminary version in progress
2
WDR 2008-Agriculture for DevelopmentOutline
1. Agriculture remains fundamental for development, and differentially by context
2. But the powers of agriculture are often under-used
3. There are new opportunities to use agriculture that open multiple pathways out of poverty
4. With new (and lingering) challenges to be addressed
5. Differentiated agendas and improved governance
6. WDR positions on emerging issues
3
Roles: A large economic sector in poor countriesShare of Labor in Agriculture and Shre of Agriculture in GDP
AGO
ARG
AZE
BDI
BEN
BFA
BGD
BGR
BLRBOL
BRACHL
CHN
CIV
CMR
COL
CZE
DOMDZAECU
EGY
ETH
GHA
GINGTMHND
HUN
IDN
IND IRNKEN
KHM
LAO
LKA
MAR
MDG
MEX
MLI
MOZMWI
MYS
NER
NGA
NPL
PAK
PER
PHL
PNG
POL
PRY
ROM
RWA
SDN
SEN
SLV
SVK
SYR
TCD
TGO
THA
TJK
TUN TUR
TZAUGA
UKR
UZB
VEN
VNMYEM
ZAF
ZAR
ZMB ZWE
AGO
ARG
AZE
BDI
BEN
BFA
BGD
BGR
BLR
BOL
BRACHL
CHN
CIV
CMR
COL
CZE
DOM
DZAECU
EGY
ETH
GHA
GIN
GTM
HND
HUN
IDN
IND
IRN
KEN
KHM
LAO
LKA
MAR
MDG
MEX
MLIMOZMWI
MYS
NER
NGA
NPL
PAK
PER
PHL
PNG
POL
PRY
ROM
RWA
SDN
SEN
SLV
SVK
SYR
TCD
TGOTHA
TJK
TUN
TUR
TZAUGA
UKR
UZB
VEN
VNM
YEM
ZAF
ZAR
ZMB
ZWE
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9Log of GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$), 1990-2005
Share of Agriculture in GDP Share of Labor in Agriculture
Source: World Bank, DDP,September 2006
The share of agriculture in GDP can be 30-50% in poor countries; the share in employment 60-90%
The share of agriculture in GDP can be 30-50% in poor countries; the share in employment 60-90%
4
Roles: A source of livelihoods for many, but a huge reservoir of poverty
0
100
200
300
400
500
SSA SA EAP MENA ECA LAC
mill
ion
of r
ural
poo
r ($
1 a
day) 1993 2002
2.5 billion people related to agriculture, 1.3 billion smallholders1.9 billion rural poor ($2/day), 800 m extreme rural poor ($1/day)
5
Agriculture
Non-agriculture
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Lowest 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Highest
Expenditure deciles
Expe
ndit
ure
gain
s in
duce
d by
1%
GD
Pgr
owth
(%
)
Fundamental role: Agricultural growth has unique powers for poverty reduction
GDP growth from agriculture especially benefits the poorest GDP growth from agriculture especially benefits the poorest
6
Fundamental role: Impressive successes at rural poverty reduction
3.4
3.6
3.8
4
4.2
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991Years
Log
of H
eadc
ount
inde
x (r
ural
are
as)
4
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5
5.2
Log
of a
vera
ge f
arm
out
put
per
acre
Rural Po(left axis)
Yields(right axis)
2.4
2.9
3.4
3.9
4.4
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001Years
Log
of H
eadc
ount
(ru
ral a
reas
)
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.9
5.0
5.1
5.2
5.3
Log
of a
vera
ge f
arm
out
put
per
acre
Rural P0(left axis)
Yields(right axis)
Headcount index and average farm yieldsRural India 1959-1994
Headcount index and average farm yieldsRural China 1980-2001
Rural poverty fell sharply in India and China as yields roseRural poverty fell sharply in India and China as yields rose
7
Roles: An important user and often mis-user of natural resources
62.9%
15.4%11.4%
6.6%3.8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Energy Agriculture(excluding land
use change)
Deforestation Industrialprocesses
Waste
Perc
ent
of t
otal
GH
G e
mis
sion
s
Developing countries
Developed countries
Agriculture uses 85% of water withdrawals and causes most of deforestation in developing countries
Contributes to global warming: 21% (up to 35%) of Green House Gases
8
There are three worlds for the roles of agriculture in growth and poverty
ZMB
ZAF
YEM
VNM
VEN UKR
UGA
TZA
TURTUN
TJK
THASLV
SEN
RWA
RUS
ROM
PRY
POL
PHLPER
PAK
NPL
NGANER
MWI
MOZMLI
MEX
MDG
MARLKA
LAO
KHM
KEN
IRN
INDIDN
HUN
HNDGTM
GHA
ETH
EGY
ECU
DOM
COL
CMR
CIV
CHNCHL
BRA BOL
BLR
BGR
BGD
BFA
BEN
BDI
AZE
ZWE
ZAR
TGO
TCD
SYR
SVK
SDN
PNG
MYS
GIN
DZA
CZEARG
AGO
BRA
BRA
CHN
CHN
CHN
IDN
IDN
IND
IND
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0Share of total poverty in rural areas, 2002
Poverty data from Ravallion et al. 2007Other predicted poverty dataDynamic analysis
Urbanized countries
Agriculture-based countries
Transforming countries
65-70
70-75
90-96
90-96
89-94
96-01
81-85
86-95
70-76
9
Message 1:The role of agriculture for development is fundamental and
differs in the three worlds: growth, equality, inclusion
Message 1:The role of agriculture for development is fundamental and
differs in the three worlds: growth, equality, inclusion
Agricultural-based countries: growthAgriculture essential for growth: large sector, price of food with limited tradability, and comparative advantage where tradable
Importance for poverty and food security
Transforming countries: equalityRapidly growing nonagricultural sectors
Agriculture key to reduce rural-urban income disparities and extreme rural poverty
Urbanized countries: inclusionSubsectors with comparative advantage
Include smallholders as suppliers to modern food markets and provide remunerative employment in agriculture
10
There is also deep heterogeneity across areas, households, and within households
Favored vs marginal areasAgro-ecology, market access, social exclusion
Household heterogeneityMarket-oriented vs subsistence farmingRural non-farm enterprises—low vs. high productivityLabor markets—high vs low skillsMigration—out of vs. into poverty
Intra-household differencesGender roles and decision makingAccess to assets and consumption
Differentiated approaches are required in enhancing the role of agriculture for development
11
WDR 2008-Agriculture for Development1. Agriculture remains fundamental for development,
and differentially by context
2. But the powers of agriculture are often under-used
3. There are new opportunities to use agriculture that open multiple pathways out of poverty
4. With new (and lingering) challenges to be addressed
5. Differentiated agendas and improved governance
6. WDR positions on emerging issues
12
Real international commodity prices have been suppressed by
current global trade policies (% of price)
Trade share losses to developing countries due to current global trade policies
(% point loss to developing country trade shares)
Under-use as global trade distortions remain pervasive
-3
-4
-4
-5
-7
-12
-15
-21
Sugar
Rice
Processed meat
Wheat
Other grains
Dairy products
Oilseed
Cotton
-9
-2
-18
-21
-5
-7
-34
-27
Sugar
Rice
Processed meat
Wheat
Course grains
Dairy products
Oilseed
Cotton
13
Under-use as taxation of agriculture exports remains high in the agriculture-based and transforming countries
-26-19
-16
5
-49
-25
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Agriculture-based Transforming Urbanized
Nom
inal
rat
e of
ass
ista
nce
(per
cent
)
1980-84 2000-04
ExportablesExportables
14
Under-use as public spending on agriculture is low in the agriculture-based countries compared to the
share of agriculture in GDP
29
24
14
29
16
10
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Agriculture-based Transforming Urbanized
perc
ent
1980 2004
4
10
17
4
1112
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Agriculture-based Transforming Urbanized
perc
ent
1980 2004
Public spending on Ag/Ag GDPAg GDP/GDP
Transforming countries in 1980 had a much higher share of public spending on agriculture as a share of Ag GDP (10%) than the agriculture-based countries do today (4%) even though they had similar shares of agriculture in GDP
Transforming countries in 1980 had a much higher share of public spending on agriculture as a share of Ag GDP (10%) than the agriculture-based countries do today (4%) even though they had similar shares of agriculture in GDP
15
Mis-use is also pervasive: Subsidies are now four times larger than public investment in Indian agriculture
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1975-79 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-02
Perc
ent
of A
g. G
DP
SubsidiesSubsidies
Public InvestmentPublic Investment
16
-102030405060708090
100
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
% p
over
ty in
rur
al a
reas
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
% O
DA
to a
gric
ultu
re
Under-use as donor support to agriculture has declined while rural poverty remained dominant
% rural poverty% rural poverty
% ODA to Ag% ODA to Ag
17
WDR 2008-Agriculture for Development1. Agriculture remains fundamental for development,
and differentially by context
2. But the powers of agriculture are often under-used
3. There are new opportunities to use agriculture that open multiple pathways out of poverty
4. With new (and lingering) challenges to be addressed
5. Differentiated agendas and improved governance
6. WDR positions on emerging issues
18
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6
Average annual change of macroeconomic score
Agr
icul
ture
gro
wth
rate
1984-19951995-2005
1984-95
1995-2005
Opportunities: Improved macro-economic conditions favorable to agricultural growth in
SS-Africa
0
2
4
6
8
10
1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004
Mac
roec
onom
ic s
core
Higher agricultural growth with improved macroeconomic scores since 1995Higher agricultural growth with improved macroeconomic scores since 1995
19-1
0
1
2
3
4
Cereals Sugar Oil crops Horticulture Meat Milk
Ann
ual g
row
th r
ate
of
kcal
/per
son/
day
(%)
1961-75 1976-90 1991-03
Opportunities: Demands for a new agriculture of high value products and non-traditional exports
0
20
40
60
80
100
Cereals Traditionalexports
Oilseeds,feeds and
others
Livestockand fishproducts
Fruits andvegetables
$ b
illio
n (2
000
pric
es) 1980 2004
Diets in the developing world are changing toward higher value
products
Non traditional exports from developing countries are increasing in absolute values and as a share of
total exports
20
Opportunities: Institutional and technical innovations
Institutional innovations—a fertile field (with gaps)• Land administration and markets, with use of IT
• Financial services: microfinance, use of IT
• Risk management: weather insurance
• More effective producer organizations & new approaches to extension using IT
Technological innovations—progress (with under-investment)• Continued spread of improved varieties to rainfed areas and better pest
resistance• GMOs--potential but only Bt cotton widely adopted by smallholders• Conservation agriculture--especially zero tillage• Improved livestock and fish breeds
21
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1992 2002
Farm AgWage NonAgIncome Transfers Other
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1992 2002
Farm AgWage NonAgIncome Transfers Other
Mexico:Sources of income rural population
Bangladesh:Sources of income rural population
Expanding income opportunities in the rural non-farm economy
Rising share of non-agricultural employment and transfers helping diversify rural household incomes
Rising share of non-agricultural employment and transfers helping diversify rural household incomes
22
Opportunities: Agriculture for development goes beyond farming
Promoting rural nonfarm developmentInvestment climate, clusters of agro-industries, entrepreneurship
Expanding and formalizing rural labor marketsSkills, working conditions, gender inclusiveness
Investing for successful out-migrationManage huge population transitions
Providing social safety netsSafety nets for welfare and risk-taking
23
Opportunities open multiple pathways out of poverty for rural households
Pathways out of poverty: not by agriculture alone
Farming
Agricultural wage employment; wage and self-employment in the rural non-farm economy
Migration and remittances
Recognize important gender dimensions to each pathway at household level and within household labor allocation
24
Opportunities: New actors and new rolesA redefined role for the state
Regulation, decentralization, and partnershipsPrivate and corporate sector
Agribusiness and the supermarket revolutionCivil society
Rapid increase in producer organizationsGrowing role of NGOs
New philanthropy
New opportunities for public-private-civil society partnerships in using agriculture for development
25
From opportunities to objectives: a policy diamondSocio political context
GovernanceMacro fundamentalsAgricultural policy
Socio political context Governance
Macro fundamentalsAgricultural policy
3Improve livelihoods in
subsistence agriculture and low skill rural occupations
4Increase employment in
agriculture and the RNFE; enhance skills
1Access to markets
Establish efficient value chain
2Enhance smallholder
competitivenessFacilitate market entry
Pathways out of poverty: farming, labor, migration
Social transition Social transition
Demand for Ag products
Demand for Ag products
26
Message 2:The new agriculture is market- and value
chain-driven, opening multiple pathways out of poverty for rural households
Message 2:The new agriculture is market- and value
chain-driven, opening multiple pathways out of poverty for rural households
Message 3: Livelihoods and food security for poor rural populations can be improved by developing more resilient farming systems, facilitating
market entry, and improving skills
Message 3: Livelihoods and food security for poor rural populations can be improved by developing more resilient farming systems, facilitating
market entry, and improving skills
27
WDR 2008-Agriculture for Development1. Agriculture remains fundamental for development,
and differentially by context
2. But the powers of agriculture are often under-used
3. There are new opportunities to use agriculture that open multiple pathways out of poverty
4. With new (and lingering) challenges to be addressed
5. Differentiated agendas and improved governance
6. WDR positions on emerging issues
28
Rise of supermarkets: A challenge for the inclusion of smallholders
MexicoS. Africa
Argentina
ChileColombia
ThailandPhilippines
Ecuador
Guatemala
Indonesia
BulgariaKenya
Nicaragua
China
Bangladesh
Brazil
S. KoreaCosta Rica
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20GDP, $000 per capita (PPP)
Shar
e of
sup
erm
arke
ts in
ret
ail f
ood
India
Czech R
29
Message 4: Reducing agriculture’s large environmental footprint
is an inevitable requirement for success, and providing environmental services one of the
development contributions of agriculture
Message 4: Reducing agriculture’s large environmental footprint
is an inevitable requirement for success, and providing environmental services one of the
development contributions of agriculture
Key for this are removing perverse input subsidies, better definition of property rights, wider use of conservation technologies, devolution to communities of control over common property resources, and developing markets for environmental services
30-8 0
-6 0
-4 0
-2 0
0
2 0
4 0
6 0
8 019
82
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
y e a r
perc
enta
ge
-3 0
-2 5
-2 0
-1 5
-1 0
-5
0
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
ra in fa ll v a r ia t io n a ro u n d th e m e a nG D P g ro w th
-8 0
-6 0
-4 0
-2 0
0
2 0
4 0
6 0
8 019
82
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
y e a r
perc
enta
ge
-3 0
-2 5
-2 0
-1 5
-1 0
-5
0
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
ra in fa ll v a r ia t io n a ro u n d th e m e a nG D P g ro w th
-8 0
-6 0
-4 0
-2 0
0
2 0
4 0
6 0
8 019
82
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
y e a r
perc
enta
ge
-3 0
-2 5
-2 0
-1 5
-1 0
-5
0
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
ra in fa ll v a r ia t io n a ro u n d th e m e a nG D P g ro w th
-8 0
-6 0
-4 0
-2 0
0
2 0
4 0
6 0
8 019
82
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
y e a r
perc
enta
ge
-3 0
-2 5
-2 0
-1 5
-1 0
-5
0
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
ra in fa ll v a r ia t io n a ro u n d th e m e a nG D P g ro w th
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
Years
Real
GD
P gr
owth
(%)
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Vari
abili
ty in
Rai
nfal
l (M
eter
)
Real GDP grow th (%)
Variability in Rainfall (Meter)
The rising cost of climatic instability on agriculture-based countries must be urgently
addressed
Ethiopia 1982-2000
Zimbabwe 1978-1993
Rainfall & GDP growth
31
WDR 2008-Agriculture for Development1. Agriculture remains fundamental for development,
and differentially by context
2. But the powers of agriculture are often under-used
3. There are new opportunities to use agriculture that open multiple pathways out of poverty
4. With new (and lingering) challenges to be addressed
5. Differentiated agendas and improved governance
6. WDR positions on emerging issues
32
Agenda for agriculture-based countries (SS-Africa): agriculture for growth
Structural features 1Diverse local conditions Building marketsSmall and landlocked and value chains
countries ++Low population density
Deficits in human 2 4resources Smallholder-based Facilitate labor
Limited food tradability revolution mobility and ruralSome foreign exchange Promote exports nonfarm development
constraints ++++ +
Access tomarkets 3
Securing livelihoodsand food security ofsubsistence farmers
+++
Policy diamond for agriculture-based countries
33
Agenda for transforming countries (Asia, MENA): agriculture to reduce disparities
Structural features 1Demographic pressures Infrastructure to& declining farm sizes support diversification
Water scarcity +Lagging areas
Political economy of 4ag policies 2 Rural nonfarm economy;
High value activities Skills for successful+++ migration
+++
3Food staples and
livestock;safety nets
+++
Policy diamond for transforming countries
34
Agenda for urbanized countries (LAC, ECA): agriculture for social inclusion and jobs
Structural features 1Supermarket revolution Resilient rural poverty &
high inequality Weak governance for
agriculture 2 4Inclusion in Territorial development;
new food markets skills for the rural++++ nonfarm economy
+++
3Subsistence agriculture;
social assistance;environmental services
+++
Policy diamond for urbanized countries
35
Improving governance to implement agriculture-for-development agendas
Double weakness of governance as a hurdleGovernance weakest in agriculture-based countries
Governance weak in agriculture vs other sectors
Global governance needed for successful national agendas
Improving governance at national, local, and global levelsNational and local: Inter-sectoral coordination, Min of Ag., decentralization
Global: Coordinate sectoral agencies for complex and inter-related issues (trade, climate change, diseases, IPGs)
New corporate and philanthropic actors
Message 5: Using agriculture for development requires fixing the current serious deficiencies in local, national,
and global governance for agriculture
Message 5: Using agriculture for development requires fixing the current serious deficiencies in local, national,
and global governance for agriculture
36
Managing the political economy of agriculture-for-development agendas
Political management of regressive subsidies, price distortions, and restrictive trade policies
Roles of information, decentralization, new actors
Coalitions of interests on specific policiesWinners and losers: role of dealmakers
Need to explore potential pathways to reformRole of second best instruments and of sequencing
37
WDR 2008-Agriculture for Development1. Agriculture remains fundamental for development,
and differentially by context
2. But the powers of agriculture are often under-used
3. There are new opportunities to use agriculture that open multiple pathways out of poverty
4. With new (and lingering) challenges to be addressed
5. Differentiated agendas and improved governance
6. WDR positions on emerging issues
38
Doha must progressEmphasis on anti-poor policies such as cotton subsidies
But even more important is to introduce complementary supportingpolicies for investment and smallholder response
Food staples (special products) may need protection but only as part of transition strategies
Recognize gainer-loser tradeoffs especially for the poor by country
And only use as clear transition policies at best
Subsidies can be used to trigger change“Market smart” subsidies can be needed to assist learning and promote market development when there are economies of scale
WDR positions on emerging issues
39
WDR positions (cont.)
Public investment in agriculture must increase Especially in Africa, but emphasize quality first
GMOs have unrealized potential for the poorOffer promise but need public R&D (or private incentives) and efficient regulatory frameworks
IPRs are not the immediate constraint, but innovative formulas are needed to build capacity for the future
Biofuels will be important, but require cautionImprove efficiency, and recognize food and environmental tradeoffs
Climate change requires immediate attentionUrgency of funding adaptation for poor countries
Extend carbon financing to provide agriculture incentives
40
Development of WDR: used a collaborative approach to raise issues,
suggest an approach.Follow up on WDR: pursue a
collaborative effort to customize and implement.
Thank youwww.worldbank.org/WDR2008
42
WDR chapter outline1. Growth and poverty in agriculture’s three worlds2. Agriculture’s performance, diversity, and uncertainties3. Rural households and their pathways out of poverty4. Realizing gains from trade, price, and subsidy policy reforms5. Bringing agriculture to the market6. Supporting smallholder competitiveness through institutional
innovations7. Innovating through science and technology8. Making agricultural systems more environmentally sustainable9. Moving beyond the farm10. Emerging national agendas for agriculture’s three worlds11. Strengthening governance, from local to global
43
Short focus sections
Declining rural poverty has been a key factor in aggregate poverty reduction
What can biofuels do for agriculture and the environment?
What are the links between agricultural production and food security?
Agribusiness for development
Capturing the benefits of GMOs for the poor
Adaptation and mitigation of climate change in agriculture
Education and skills for rural development
The two-way links between agriculture and health
44
Characteristics of the three worlds
Agric-based Transforming Urbanized
Rural population (million) 417 2,220 255
Agriculture GDP growth rate* 4.0 2.9 2.2
Non Agriculture GDP growth rate* 3.5 7.0 2.7
Agricultural % of GDP growth 32 7 5
Number of poor ($1/day) 170 592 32
% of rural poor in total 70 81 45
*Growth rates correspond to the 1993-2005 period
45
Heterogeneity across smallholders: Sources of household income differ by country
context
41
4 7
13
38
4
19 39
39
2418
47
3 1 3
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Ghana Vietnam Guatemala
Migration & remittances
Agricultural wage &RNFEDiversified sources
Market-oriented farming
Subsistence-orientedfarming
• Subsistence
farming high in
Ghana
• Market-oriented
farming and
diversification high
in Vietnam
• Non-farm incomes
and diversification
high in Guatemala
• Subsistence
farming high in
Ghana
• Market-oriented
farming and
diversification high
in Vietnam
• Non-farm incomes
and diversification
high in Guatemala
46
Technological innovations: Sustained gains in yields, but falling behind in Sub-Saharan Africa
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Yie
lds (
ton/
ha)
Developed CountriesAsia DevelopingLatin American and the CaribbeanSub-Saharan Africa
47
0
10
20
30
40
50
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Shar
e of
par
ticip
atin
g ho
useh
olds
(%
)
Contract farmers
Estate farm workers
Total participants
Household participation
Smallholder inclusion and employment as two options for rural poverty reduction
Incidence of poverty and extreme poverty among participating households
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
non-participants
estate farmworkers
contractfarmers
Shar
e of
hou
seho
lds
(%) Poverty
Extreme poverty
Green bean export production in Senegal: Participants – whether as contract farmers or as farm workers in estates –
had higher income than non participating households
Green bean export production in Senegal: Participants – whether as contract farmers or as farm workers in estates –
had higher income than non participating households
48
Agricultural population transitions: the need to prepare surplus populations
Urban
Rural
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030
Bill
ion
peop
le
EAP SA
SSA
LAC
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030
Bill
ion
peop
le
Populationin developing countries
will remain predominantly rural until 2020
Rural population has been declining in Latin America and East Asia
since 1995 due to slower population growth and rapid urbanization
49
The increasing land and water constraints on agriculture must be addressed
LACECA
MENA
EAP
SA
SSA
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1961
1967
1973
1979
1985
1991
1997
2003
Inde
x of
cro
plan
d pe
r ag
popu
latio
n (1
961=
100)
Water scarcity affects millions in Asia and over 60 percent of population in the
Middle East and North Africa
Cropland per capita of agricultural population is falling in Asia and Africa
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
SSA SA EAP MENA ECA LAC
Perc
ent
(%)
% of population in absolute water scarcity
Recommended