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WMO
Social and Economic Benefit Studies
in WMO region RA VI
Adriaan PerrelsVice-chair WG SDP / chair TT-SEB2
Zagreb, Croatia, SEB course – 29.6 – 3.7 2015
Contents
RA VI – reported interest in SEB
Conducted SEBs in RA VI
Case study examples
Exploitation and communication
Conclusions
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Reported reasons for interest in SEB
Justifying public funding 68%
Investment / R&D prioritization 44%
Service development (incl. charging structures) 56%
Many respondents indicated that support was welcome (from the WMO), notably regarding: Guidance (’how to define / conduct / etc.’) SEB methods Experience & information sharing Funding
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book
TT-SEB / COST
SEB studies in RA VI area (not exhaustive)
UK MetOffice (2007; 2013; 2015)
Russia (2001; NOAA 2006)
Denmark (DMI) (Transport Ministry 2006)
Finland (FMI) (VTT 2007/2008; FMI 2011/2012)
South-East Europe & former CIS (World Bank 2008)
Croatia (HMZ) (VTT/FMI 2008)
MeteoSwiss (INFRAS 2008)
Spain (AEMET) (datos.gob.es 2014)
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Examples of SEB studies
MeteoSwiss (Frei 2010; Frei et al 2011) Broad scope, but with emphasis on transport Benefit transfer by sector and by approach All weather service providers in Switzerland
FMI (Nurmi et al 2012; Nurmi et al 2013) Focus on transport Deep analysis of the value chain Also tries to account for user cost
UK MetOffice (2013) (2013) Benefits of high performance computing Avoided hazard cost; optimal wind power siting
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Characterizing case studies
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Characteristics Switzerland 2008-2012 Finland 2007-2012 UK
Purpose(s)Validation of hydro/met-services Validation of hydro/met-services Validation of investment
Commissioned by
MeteoSwiss FMI/ VTT (EVASERVE project) ; FMI
UK MetOffice
Carried out by1. Internally (pre-study)2. INFRAS
1. VTT2. Internally
private consultants; universities
Funded byMeteoSwiss EVASERVE project / FMI
EU EWENT / FMIUK MetOffice
Scope
First broad brush; later more precise (transport)
First quite broad (based on data availability); later more precise (transport)
one specific topic – benefits of new super computer (focuses on measurable benefit generation in selected sectors)
Costs of SEB study
1. ?2. ~ $ 100 000
1. 15 ~ 20 person months (around € 230 000)
2. roughly € 100 000
approx. £ 50 000 per sector study
Estimated (net) benefit
~ $ 240 million/year; costs: ~ $ 83 million/year (incl. private WS)Road: B/C ratio ~10
~ $ 360 million/year (260?) costs: ~ $ 75 million/year;road: € 36 million ; B/C ratio ~10
~ £ 2 billion during 5 years;Investment cost: ~ £ 100 million
Follow-up
• Links with / extension to climate services
• Communication of results
• More surveys by enduser group• MCDA of service development
choices• Cross institute product
development forum• Benefit-cost analysis consultancy
and studies• Communication of results
• Purchase advice• Communication of results and
valuation method
Examples of SEB studies – in depth
Switzerland, Finland Road: maintenance, clearance – cost savings
better traffic flow – time savings avoided accidents – avoided
cost
Challenge is to show the differential effect of a new or improved weather service (as compared to current practice)
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Tracing information effects
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Swiss road case(Frei et al 2014)
Finnish road case
(Nurmi et al
2013)
Examples of SEB studies – in depth
UK MetOffice: Benefits of high performance computing:Higher accuracy / resolution enables further hazard cost reduction through
Emergency services (better anticipation; deployment) Better located and sized protection less damage to
private and public property
Higher accuracy / resolution enables: Optimized siting of wind turbines
Benefits are conditional on quality of complimentary models and services
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The benefits of showing the benefits
Analysis of the value chain not only gives an idea of the current net benefits, but can also show what can be improved in each stage of the value chain
Supports the development of understanding the customer, customer relations, and partnerships Citizens Public agencies Specific sectors (agriculture, transport, energy) Neighboring NMS’s … facilitated by good communication
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Conclusions
Experience with SEB is building up, but by no means common knowledge in RA VI
SEB is not only numerical results, but also a learning process and management tool
SEB comes in many sizes purpose should drive the ambition level and allocated resources
Re-/deregulation as new motivator Enhanced sharing of information and experience
seems very useful Value chain as a key concept
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References Anderson et al (2015), Valuing Weather and Climate: Economic Assessment of Meteorological and
Hydrological Services – case studies 1, 6 and 7 Datos.gob.es (2014), Estudio Sector Infomediario 2014. Parte III. Análisis Coste – Beneficio de la
información meteorológica http://datos.gob.es/content/estudios-de-caracterizacion-del-sector-infomediario-2014
Frei, Th., von Grünigen, S. and Willemse, S. (2012), Economic benefit of meteorology in the Swiss road transportation sector, Meteorological Applications
Frei Th. (2010), Economic and social benefits of meteorology and climatology in Switzerland, Meteorological Applications, Vol.17, pp. 39–44.
Leviäkangas, P., (2009), Benefits and value of meteorological information services – the case of the Finnish Meteorological Institute, Meteorological Applications, Vol.16, pp.369–379
Leviäkangas,P., Hautala, R., Räsänen, J., Öörni, R., Sonninen, S., Hekkanen, M., Ohlström, M., Venäläinen, A., and Saku, S. (2007), Benefits of meteorological services in Croatia, VTT Research Notes 2420, Oulu
Met Office UK (2007), The Public Weather Service’s contribution to the UK economy, www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/h/o/PWSCG_benefits_report.pdf
Nurmi, P., Perrels, A., Nurmi, V. (2013), Expected impacts and value of improvements in weather forecasting on the road transport sector, Meteorological Applications, Vol.20, pp.217 – 223
Nurmi,V, Perrels, A., Nurmi, P., Seitz, D., Michaelides, S., Athanasatos, S., and Papadakis, M. (2012), Economic value of weather forecasts on transportation – Impacts of weather forecast quality developments to the economic effects of severe weather, EWENT report D5.2 http://ewent.vtt.fi/Deliverables/D5/D5_2_16_02_2012_revised_final.pdf
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