Why did Hillary Loose? Why did Donald Win? · Why Did Clinton Loose? CTC2 V1A 7 Dec, 2016...

Why Did Clinton Loose? CTC2 V1A 7 Dec, 2016

2016-Schield-CTC2-Slides.pdf 1

2016 Schield CTC2 Trump1A 1

Milo SchieldAugsburg College

Editor: www.StatLit.orgUS Rep: International Statistical Literacy Project

TC Metro Critical Thinking Clubwww.StatLit.org/pdf/2016-Schield-CTC2-Slides.pdf

www.statlit.org/pdf/2016-Schield-CTC2-Exit-Poll-Summary.pdf

Why Did Clinton Lose?Why Did Trump Win?

We Want Explanations:Wrong Color Pantsuits?

Plausible Explanations Must be Supported by Data

FBI Comey Letters

Source:www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/10/maps-presidential-election-race-gender-age

What if only ____ voted?Women vs. Men

What If Only ___ Voted?People of Color vs. White

What If Only ____ Voted?Whites: Women vs Men

What if only ____ Voted?Whites: College vs. No College

Data Source: Nate Sliver (538) in mid October, 2016.

2016 Schield CTC2 Trump1A

Exit Polls:Poll actual voters

PLUS:1. Best way to contact actual voters.2. Connect candidate choice with multiple groups.3. No undecided after voting4. Get smaller subgroups.

MINUS:1. Not necessarily representative. Sampling bias?2. Some chose “None of the options” or “No answer”3. Subject bias is still relevant.

Exit PollsVoters Asked on Exit

What groups should each candidate focus on?

Pro-Clinton Groups (Most are for Clinton): • Sort by Group’s share of population• Sort by Clinton’s share of group votewww.statlit.org/pdf/2016-Schield-CTC2-Exit-Poll-Summary.pdf

Source of Exit Poll Data: www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-pollswww.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/elections/exit-poll-analysis.html

Exit Poll Results:Questions with Two-Answers

Pro-Hillary Exit-Poll SheetLeft Side

Pro-Hillary Exit-Poll SheetRight Side

Multi-GroupChoice-Based

Multi-GroupOpinion-Based

Multi-GroupChoice or Opinion-Based

Multi-Group:Fixed Conditions

We have lots of data comparing Clinton & Trump.• Two-answer data (See Handout)• Multiple-answer data (3-7 choices)

Is this data sufficient/adequate for our decision?If not, what other data would be helpful?

Critical Thinking ReviewWhat Other Data Would Help?

We need time-data: Hillary compared to Obama.It takes a change to explain a change.

Time-Compare by Gender:Increase among Men

20 point gender gap

Time-Compare by Race:Trump bested Romney in All

50 point race gap

Time-Compare by Income:Trump better in Low-Income

15 point income gapConfounded by race

Time-Compare Among Whites by Education

30 point education gap:After controlling for race

50 point gap by Race (70% White vs. 30% Non-White)

20 point gap by Gender (48% Men vs. 52% Women)

15 point gap by Income (Low vs High: Low is less than $50K)

5 point gap by Education (50% no College vs. 50% College)

Statistical Literacy: Take into account most important factors first.

Otherwise the results will be “confounded”. Simplest way: Selection!

30 point gap by Education among Whites (no College vs. College)

Biggest Problem: Confounding

Women:White, High School or Less

Source: PEW Research Center

14 pt gap

Control for Race and Education by Selection

Men:White, High School or Less

www.npr.org/2016/11/08/501069216/5-exit-poll-numbers-to-watch-on-election-night

38 pt gap

Psychological Explanation:Trump is a Populist

Source. Oliver and Rahn (2016). Rise of Trumpenvolk: Populism in the 2016 Election. Annals AAPSS 667, Sept 2016. URL: http://ann.sagepub.com/content/667/1/189.full.pdf

Psychological Differences:Trump=Populist; Clinton=Not

TrumpClinton

Sanders

What kind of data do we need?

“It takes a change to explain a change”Time-based data is essential

If data doesn’t include the motivating reasonor condition, that data will not be helpful.

Let’s look at some psychological “data”.

Critical Thinking Summary

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKeYbEOSqYcUploaded Oct 24 2.3 million views as of 12/03

“Trumpland” Excerptby Michael Moore

WhyTrump

will win

“On Nov 8, the dispossessed will walk into the voting booth and … vote … for the man

that has threatened to upend and overturn the very system that has ruined their lives:

Donald J. Trump”

“Trump’s election is going to be the biggest ‘fuck you’ ever recorded in human history”

“And it will feel good !!!”

MichaelMoore

He had a personal relationship with the respondents.

Moore: “I know a lot of people in Michigan that are planning to vote for Trump and they don't necessarily agree with him. They're not racist or redneck, they're actually pretty decent people. After talking to a number of them,I wanted to write this.

“We went to union halls and guys that I grew up with —people who normally vote Democrat who are thinking of voting for Trump. That is a huge chunk of the population, especially where I'm from.”

Why did Moore Get it Right?

CTC1: Election poll forecasts -- closer to fortune telling

CTC2: Why Clinton Lost.

1. Looking at the wrong data can be debilitating!

2. It takes a change to explain a change‘Movie’ data is better than ‘snapshot’ data

3. Take into account (control for) the biggest factor first

4. Simplest way to control for something: Selection

Critical ThinkingSummary

Milo SchieldAugsburg College

Editor: www.StatLit.orgUS Rep: International Statistical Literacy Project

TC Metro Critical Thinking Clubwww.StatLit.org/pdf/2016-Schield-CTC2-Slides.pdf

www.statlit.org/pdf/2016-Schield-CTC2-Exit-Poll-Summary.pdf

Why Did Clinton Lose?Why Did Trump Win?

We Want Explanations:Wrong Color Pantsuits?

Plausible Explanations Must be Supported by Data

FBI Comey Letters

Source:www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/10/maps-presidential-election-race-gender-age

What if only ____ voted?Women vs. Men

What If Only ___ Voted?People of Color vs. White

What If Only ____ Voted?Whites: Women vs Men

What if only ____ Voted?Whites: College vs. No College

Data Source: Nate Sliver (538) in mid October, 2016.

9Exit Polls:

Poll actual voters

PLUS:1. Best way to contact actual voters.2. Connect candidate choice with multiple groups.3. No undecided after voting4. Get smaller subgroups.

MINUS:1. Not necessarily representative. Sampling bias?2. Some chose “None of the options” or “No answer”3. Subject bias is still relevant.

Exit PollsVoters Asked on Exit

What groups should each candidate focus on?

Pro-Clinton Groups (Most are for Clinton): • Sort by Group’s share of population• Sort by Clinton’s share of group votewww.statlit.org/pdf/2016-Schield-CTC2-Exit-Poll-Summary.pdf

Source of Exit Poll Data: www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-pollswww.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/elections/exit-poll-analysis.html

Exit Poll Results:Questions with Two-Answers

Pro-Hillary Exit-Poll SheetLeft Side

Pro-Hillary Exit-Poll SheetRight Side

Multi-GroupChoice-Based

Multi-GroupOpinion-Based

Multi-GroupChoice or Opinion-Based

Multi-Group:Fixed Conditions

We have lots of data comparing Clinton & Trump.• Two-answer data (See Handout)• Multiple-answer data (3-7 choices)

Is this data sufficient/adequate for our decision?If not, what other data would be helpful?

Critical Thinking ReviewWhat Other Data Would Help?

We need time-data: Hillary compared to Obama.It takes a change to explain a change.

Time-Compare by Gender:Increase among Men

20 point gender gap

Time-Compare by Race:Trump bested Romney in All

50 point race gap

Time-Compare by Income:Trump better in Low-Income

15 point income gapConfounded by race

Time-Compare Among Whites by Education

30 point education gap:After controlling for race

50 point gap by Race (70% White vs. 30% Non-White)

20 point gap by Gender (48% Men vs. 52% Women)

15 point gap by Income (Low vs High: Low is less than $50K)

5 point gap by Education (50% no College vs. 50% College)

Statistical Literacy: Take into account most important factors first.

Otherwise the results will be “confounded”. Simplest way: Selection!

30 point gap by Education among Whites (no College vs. College)

Biggest Problem: Confounding

Women:White, High School or Less

Source: PEW Research Center

14 pt gap

Men:White, High School or Less

www.npr.org/2016/11/08/501069216/5-exit-poll-numbers-to-watch-on-election-night

38 pt gap

Psychological Explanation:Trump is a Populist

Source. Oliver and Rahn (2016). Rise of Trumpenvolk: Populism in the 2016 Election. Annals AAPSS 667, Sept 2016. URL: http://ann.sagepub.com/content/667/1/189.full.pdf

Psychological Differences:Trump=Populist; Clinton=Not

TrumpClinton

Sanders

What kind of data do we need?

“It takes a change to explain a change”Time-based data is essential

If data doesn’t include the motivating reasonor condition, that data will not be helpful.

Let’s look at some psychological “data”.

Critical Thinking Summary

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKeYbEOSqYcUploaded Oct 24 2.3 million views as of 12/03

“Trumpland” Excerptby Michael Moore

WhyTrump

will win

“On Nov 8, the dispossessed will walk into the voting booth and … vote … for the man

that has threatened to upend and overturn the very system that has ruined their lives:

Donald J. Trump”

“Trump’s election is going to be the biggest ‘fuck you’ ever recorded in human history”

“And it will feel good !!!”

MichaelMoore

He had a personal relationship with the respondents. Moore: “I know a lot of people in Michigan that are planning to vote for Trump and they don't necessarily agree with him. They're not racist or redneck, they're actually pretty decent people. After talking to a number of them,I wanted to write this.“We went to union halls and guys that I grew up with —people who normally vote Democrat who are thinking of voting for Trump. That is a huge chunk of the population, especially where I'm from.”

Why did Moore Get it Right?

CTC1: Election poll forecasts -- closer to fortune tellingCTC2: Why Clinton Lost.1. Looking at the wrong data can be debilitating!2. It takes a change to explain a change

‘Movie’ data is better than ‘snapshot’ data3. Take into account (control for) the biggest factor first4. Simplest way to control for something: Selection

Critical ThinkingSummary

Why did Hillary Loose? Why did Donald Win? · Why Did Clinton Loose? CTC2 V1A 7 Dec, 2016...

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