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WHAT A PHYSICIST CAN SAY ABOUT GLOBAL POPULATION GROWTH
Sergey P. KapitzaInstitute for Physical Problems
Russian Academy of Science, Moscow
5
WORLD POPULATION FROM 2000 BC TO 3000 AD1 -- DATA OF BIRABEN, 2 -- BLOW-UP, 3 -- DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, 4 -- STABILIZED POPULATION, 5 --ANCIENT WORLD, 6--MIDDLE AGES,7--MODERNITY, 8--RECENT HISTORY
PASSAGE THROUGH THE POPULATION TRANSITION
1– FRANCE, 2 – GERMANY, 3 – RUSSIA, 4 – USA,
5 – MAURITIUS, 6 – SRI LANKA, 7 – COSTA RICA,
8 – WORLD
8
ANNUAL GROWTH AVERAGED OVER A DECADE1 – DEVELOPED AND 2 – DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
WORLD DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
9
MAIN ASSUMPTIONS MADE IN MODELING
• GLOBAL POPULATION IS A DYNAMIC SYSTEM
• MANKIND IS A SINGLE SPECIES Homo sapiens
• SYSTEM IS COUPLED BY INTERACTIONS
• GROWTH IS STATISTICALLY DETERMINED AND
DYNAMICALY SELF-SIMILAR, HENCE IT SCALES
• LIMITS OF SCALING ARE SET BY LIFE SPAN
• GROWTH IS PROPORTIONAL TO SQUARE OF
GLOBAL POPULATION AND IS NON-LINEAR
MAIN RESULTS OF MODELLING GLOBAL POPULATION GROWTH
BLOW-UP OF POPULATION GROWTH:
GROWTH RATE:
GROWTH BEFORE AND AFTER:
CONSTANTS:
POPULATION LIMIT: BEGINNING: PEOPLE WHO EVER LIVED:
INSTANTANEUS EXPONENTIAL GROWTH: %10011
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PRINCIPAL RESULTS OF THEORY
• GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT DESCRIBED THROUGHOUT ALL OF HUMAN EXISTENCE
• GROWTH IS CULMINATED BY DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION — A REVOLUTIONARY CHANGE
• GLOBAL POPULATION LIMIT AT 10 –12 BILLION• PEOPLE, WHO LIVED ON EARTH 100 BILLION• PERIODS OF PAST HISTORY AND PREHISTORY
SEEN ON A CONTRACTING TIME SCALE• INTERNAL FACTORS DETERMINE TRANSITION,
AND NOT BY ENVIRONMENT OR RESOURCES
12
POPULATION OF THE WORLD 1750–2200
1 – PROJECTIONS BY IIASA AND UN, 2 – MODEL, o – 1995
3 – BLOW-UP, 4 – DIFFERENCE OF MODEL AND PROJECTIONS x 5 times
14Growth and development of mankind
Table 3. Growth and development of humankind, shown on a logarithmic scale
Epoch Period
Dateyear
Numberof people
Cultural period Tyears
Events in history, culture, andtechnology
2200 11 109 Stabilizingglobal
Global population limit 12109
Changing age distribution
C2050 9 109
Population125 Globalization
T1 2000 6 109World
demographic45 Urbanization Internet
111955 3 x109
Revolution45
BiotechnologyComputers
101840 1 x109
Recent 125World Wars
Electric power
91500
Modern 340Industrial revolution
Printing
8500 AD
Middle Ages 1000Geographic discoveries
Fall of Rome
72000 BC
108
Ancient World 2500Christ, MuhammadGreek civilization
India, China, Buddha, ConfuciusMesopotamia, Egypt
B 69000
Neolithic 7,000 Writing, CitiesBronze and iron metallurgyDomestication and agriculture
529,000
107
Mesolithic 20,000 Microliths
480,000
Moustier 51,000America populated
ShamanismHomo sapiens
30.22 Ma 106 Acheulean 1.4105
LanguageSpeech, Fire
20.6 Ma
Chelles 3.8105Europe and Asia populated
Hand axes
11.6 Ma 105 Olduvai 1 106
ChoppersHomo habilis
A T0 4 - 5Ma (1) Anthropo-genesis
3 106Hominida separate from
Hominoids
16
CHANGE IN AGE DISTRIBUTION FOR GLOBAL POPULATION
1 – AGE GROUP YONGER THAN 14 YEARS, 2 – OLDER THAN 65 YEARS 3 – OLDER THAN 80, A – DEVELOPING, B – DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
17
CONSEQUENCES OF GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHIC REVOLUTION
• Zero growth rate • Stabilized population• New age structure• New time structure• Ethnic changes• Massive migrations ?• Changes in mobility ?• Predominance of old
generations setting challenges for health and social security
• Further globalization• Alternative of stagnation
or new development ?• Deindustrialization • Transition to an
information society• Expansion of services:
health,education,science• Emergence of new
priorities and values in consumption,environmnt
ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHIC
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PRINCIPLES OF META-ECONOMICS
• RIGHT FROM THE BEGINNING, GROWTH OF MANKIND
WAS DETERMINED BY GENERALIZED INFORMATIONAL
FACTORS THAT MODERATED SOCIAL EVOLUTION AND
DEVELOPNENT
• THE GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION TO A
STABILIZED POPULATION IS DETERMINED BY THE
LIMITS OF THE INFORMATION SOCIETY
• THE FUTURE WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE «SOFTWARE» — CULTURE OF AN INFORMATION DOMINATED WORLD, RATHER THAN THE «HARDWARE» OF INDUSTRY, AS IN THE PAST
WHAT DRIVES DEVELOPMENT?
‘THE FAILURE TO UNDERSTAND THAT THE ROOTS OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOUR LIE IN THE REALM OF CONSCIOUSNESS AND CULTURE LEADS TO THE COMMON MISTAKE OF ATTRIBUTING MATERIAL CAUSES TO PHENOMENA THAT ARE ESSENTIALLY IDEAL IN NATURE.’
FRANCIS FUCUYAMA
21
ISSUES IN THE POST — TRANSITION WORLD
• IS THE DOMINANCE OF THE MARKET, WITH ITS SHORT RANGE TIME SCALE A REACTION TO D.T.
• CAN THE DILEMMA OF SELF-ORGANIZATION v.s. ORGANIZATION FIND ITS RESOLUTION
• CAN A DECREASE IN MILITANCE BE EXPECTED IN A
WORLD WITH A STABILIZED POPULATION ?• CAN IN THIS WORLD LONG RANGE SOCIAL ISSUES
BE FACED BY GLOBAL GOVERNANCE, NOW CONSPICIOUSLY ABSENT ?
• WILL GLOBAL PROBLEMS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE IN AN EMERGENT NEW WORLD ?
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