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© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 1 © 2009 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
Webinar: 2012 Mobile Trends
Thomas Husson
Principal Analyst, Consumer Product Strategy
March 13, 2012
@Thomas_Husson
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 2
Agenda
What's the state of the mobile market after Mobile World Congress?
What key trends should you expect in 2012 and beyond?
How to make the most of mobile consumer opportunities?
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 3
COMMUNICATE
CREATE CONSUME
CONTROL
Blogs
IM/chat
SMS
Ring tones Music
Search
News
Video TV
Web browsing
Games
Maps
Health
Payment Commerce
Banking
Ticketing
Parking
Social
networks
Pictures
Email/MMS
Organizer Voice
Mobile phones are becoming our 24*7 digital personal assistants
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 4
SuperConnecteds
Entertainers
Communicators
Talkers
Inactives
Increasing
mobile
sophistication
Connectors
• Use primarily communication
services (e.g, SMS)
• Primarily use voice
• Do not own a mobile phone
• Use mobile Internet at least weekly
• Conduct 2 or more mobile advanced
activities at least monthly
• Play games, listen to music or
Watch TV/video at least weekly
Mobile Technographics® Profiles
• Use mobile phone for work purposes
more than 25 percent of their time
Japan is still the most mobile-savvy country but the US are catching up quickly
18%
22%
6%
32%
28%
9%
33%
25%
9%
20%
30%
11%
52%
36%
12%
21%
10%
9%
Sources: 2011 Q2 European Benchmark, North American Technographics Benchmark Survey Q2/Q3, 2011, Q2 2011
Asia Pacific Benchmark
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 5
BRAZIL
METRO
CHINA
13%
5%
“How frequently do you access the mobile Internet (monthly or more)?”
31%
2011 mobile Internet penetration
2009 mobile Internet penetration
US
15%
MEXICO
METRO
INDIA
SWEDEN
UK 11%
6%
46%
38%
17%
35%
RUSSIA
36%
15%
16%
Source: European Technographics® Benchmark Survey, Q2 2011; North American Technographics® Benchmark Survey, Q2 2011
(US, Canada); North American Technographics® Online Benchmark Survey, Q3 2011 (US, Canada); Asia Pacific Technographics®
Benchmark Survey, Q2 2011; and Latin American Technographics® Benchmark Survey, Q2 2011 (Mexico, Brazil)
Mobile is the only truly global platform
Base: mobile users ages 18
and older
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 6
Mobile product innovation is increasingly coming from emerging markets
Mobile payments in emerging
countries are not just innovative -
they are becoming mass-market. The Huawei Ascend D1 quad-core
smartphone
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 7
―In 12 years, handsets are going to be 20 times
faster, which means phones that cost $400 now
will be available for $20.‖
Eric Schmidt, Google’s Executive Chairman In his keynote speech at Mobile World Congress, 2012, Barcelona
Smartphones are getting cheaper…
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 8
…and smarter than ever
Nokia 808 PureView smarpthone
with a 41MP camera LG Optimus 4X HD
New range of Sony smartphones
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 9
Hybrid devices and new form factors are emerging
Samsung Galaxy
Note 10.1
Samsung Galaxy Note
5.3 HD Screen
LG Vu
Asus Padfone
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 10
For now Apple App Store still leads the pack while Android Market is catching up quickly
Apple App Store
– >550,000 apps available for more than 315M iOS devices
– More than 25 billion downloads since launch in July 2008
– $4 billion paid out to developers cumulatively, Apple keeping ~$1.7 billion
Google Play (ex Android Market)
– >450,000 apps available for more than 300M Android activated devices
– More than 10 billion downloads since launch in October 2008
However, the Android Market is catching up quickly due to the significant
growth of Android devices’ activation (>850,000/day) and a massive
installed base of 300M devices
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 11
From hardware to software and services: the outcome of the platform war
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 12
Open your mind to open innovation
Source: Android (http://android.smartphonefrance.info)
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 13
Agenda
What's the state of the mobile market after Mobile World Congress?
What key trends should you expect in 2012 and beyond?
How to make the most of mobile consumer opportunities?
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 14
Amazon and Facebook to become disruptive distribution forces in the mobile space
Source: the Music Industry Blog
Apple and Amazon have mirroring
strategies and business models
Facebook as a platform – a new
disruptive force in the mobile space
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 15
Mobile devices have unleashed a storm of innovation that will change shopping and transform payments
Coupons & offers
Product information
Loyalty & rewards
Mobile payment
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 16
Payment Transport card
Access
control Connectivity
Service
discovery Debit card
NFC services will gain a lot of traction in 2012 but main usage will not be payments
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 17 © 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
Anticipate the impact of the mainstreaming of smartphones and tablets
Source: Forrester Research ForecastView – Mobile Adoption Forecast, 2011 to 2016 (Western Europe only);
FORRESTER RESEARCH PERSONAL DIGITAL DEVICES FORECAST, 2011 TO 2016 (EU 7)
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 18
Cloud computing and HTML 5 will increasingly be part of successful mobile product strategies
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 19
The phone is breaking free of
the PC — moving out of its
shadow — so must you
Anticipate disruption by thinking mobile not PC
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 20
The future of mobile is user-context
• A host of new technologies will appear in mobile phones and make
interactions more sensory (NFC, 3D cameras, chemical sensors…)
• Richer local data will drive context-based experiences – not just on
mobile devices
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 21
Flight - 2 days + 2h - 2h + 2 days
• Change reservation
• Reserve seat
• View reservations
• Check gate
• Departure time
• Lounge access
• Upgrade
• Arrival time
• Food order
• Movies
• Wi-Fi
• Ground
transportation
• Lost luggage
• Navigation
• Customer service
• Mileage status
• Reward travel
• Upcoming reservations
Contextual use of time will help prioritize home page
Airline example based on user time
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 22
Physical products will increasingly ship with mobile companion - enabling you to create new experiences
―Grandma made
tea today.‖
―The load is dry.
lean filter.‖
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 23
Agenda
What's the state of the mobile market after Mobile World Congress?
What key trends should you expect in 2012 and beyond?
How to make the most of mobile consumer opportunities?
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 24
What are your company's top 3 priorities/objectives for mobile consumer
strategy for phones? (Select top 3 reasons)
Base: 240 total respondents
Source: Forrester Q4 2011 Global Mobile Maturity Online Survey
Mobile objectives are starting to be defined to fuel corporate goals…
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 25
…But few organizations are ready to scale mobile consumer initiatives
• Organizational challenges are common issues:
• Single affiliates/brands deploying mobile without internal
coordination
• Decentralized approaches implying higher costs without the
common benefits of the learning curve
• Majority of companies are not able to measure their mobile
performance
• Limited investment, resources and expertise – particularly at a local
/ country level - are dedicated to mobile
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 26
The POST method: a systematic approach to defining or refining a mobile strategy
1. People Review the mobile profile of your own target
audience (consumers, employees)
2. Objectives Decide on your goals.
3. Strategy Determine your approach to meet your
objectives.
4. Technology Choose the technologies that will enable you
to implement your strategy.
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 27
Start planning mobile-only services and to deliver advanced contextual product experiences
Le
ve
l o
f S
op
his
tic
ati
on
High
Low
Evolution of Services Over Time
Nothing
Multi channel
Cross-
channel
Mobile
Unique
Advanced
Contextual
Today
Next 2-3 years
• Mobile-only services will offer
consumers incremental value
• These services make use of unique
device features such as GPS,
camera, NFC, accelerometer, and
new sensors, etc.
• These services often are built into
applications but could also include
messaging or Web
• Migrate services that are
frequently used online AND
are mobile appropriate (e.g.,
value in immediacy,
simplicity, and contextual)
Source: July 2011 ―The Future Of Mobile Is User Context‖
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 28
Hidden costs and impact on IT are rarely anticipated
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 29
Bridge marketing & business technology
Source: February 2012 ―Mobile Is The New Face Of Engagement‖
Mobile is not a one-off investment:
anticipate the total budget impact over
the years
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 30
Key Takeaways
• Mobile is the most disruptive technology today, and companies
have to anticipate how mobile could affect their business in the years
to come
• The future of mobile is not location but user context
• Get executive buy-in and bridge marketing & business technology
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 31
How Forrester can help
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 32
Forrester serves 19 professional roles
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 33
Argentina (NEW)
Australia
Brazil
Canada
China
France
Germany
India
Italy
Japan
Mexico
Poland
The Netherlands
Russia (NEW)
South Korea
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
US and US Hispanic
+ Longest digital consumer study, since 1997
+ 335,000 surveys yearly
+ 1,400 brands
+ 300 attitudes captured
+ 6 proprietary profiles
+ Deep, customizable, trended consumer insights
.
Consumer Technographics examines the impact of technology on consumer attitudes and behaviors
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 34
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 35
Data-rich inputs, experienced team, & rigorous methodologies to make you successful
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 36
Objective Advice
KEY QUESTIONS WE CAN HELP:
1. How successful are your mobile initiatives in
meeting strategic goals?
2. Do you know how mobile-ready are your
affiliates and brands across the world?
3. How does your mobile approach compare with
your competitors?
4. What are the best practices outside of your
industry?
5. Have you defined a clear mobile business case?
6. Is your company aligned internally on the
objectives and resources allocated to mobile?
7. Which areas should you prioritize?
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 37
There is much more to discover about consumer behavior and forecast trends
Contact Forrester for
more information.
© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 38
Questions?
© 2009 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
Thank you for you attention Thomas Husson
thusson@forrester.com
www.forrester.com
@Thomas_Husson
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