Weather Discussion 5/25/2010

Weather Discussion5/25/2010

The Big May 19 Storm: Max GustsENUMCLAW 65 MPH HOQUIAM 60 MPH OCEAN SHORES 59 MPH PORT TOWNSEND 56 MPH LA PUSH 55 MPH BELLINGHAM 54 MPH BOTHELL 51 MPH SANDY POINT 49 MPH WHIDBEY ISL NAVAL STA 49 MPH BELLINGHAM INT 49 MPH TACOMA INDUSTRIAL 47 MPH COPALIS BEACH 48 MPH LYNDEN 43 MPH FRIDAY HARBOR 43 MPH EVERETT / PAINE FIELD 43 MPH CHERRY POINT 40 MPH SHELTON 41 MPH ARLINGTON 37 MPH MCCHORD AFB 36 MPH SEATTLE FORECAST OFFICE 36 MPH

MOUNTAIN OBSERVATIONS

HURRICANE RIDGE (RAWS) 118 MPH HURRICANE RIDGE (NWAC) 83 MPH MOUNT BAKER (NWAC) 78 MPH WHITE PASS (NWAC) 55 MPH

MARINE OBSERVATIONS DESTRUCTION ISLAND 83 MPH TATOOSH ISLAND 62 MPH SMITH ISLAND 52 MPH POINT WILSON 50 MPH WEST POINT 40 MPH

Name That Storm• Tomato Killer Storm• Birthday on May 19th of Ho Chi Minh (The

Minhimum Pressure Storm), Malcolm X (The X Storm), and Andre the Giant (The Giant Storm)

• Other ideas?

Storm Predictability

• Excellent forecasts starting approximately 60-70 hr before the event.

• Model Dmodel/dt shows this– http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops

/wxloop.cgi?mm5d2_slp+v2010052003///

• The alternative approach to determine predicitability … ensembles

Satellite Imagery

• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir_archive+start+2010051812+end+2010052012+interval+3h

• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?vis_archive+start+2010051812+end+2010052012+interval+3h

• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_archive+start+2010051900+end+2010052012+interval+3h

More Satellite Imagery

• HiResVis:• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/lo

ops/wxloop.cgi?vis1km_archive+start+2010051900+end+2010052012+interval+3h

Observation Problems• Many of the offshore buoys dead• The 88D radar died during the storm• The Westport profiler and other obs died early

in the storm and are still gone.

WRF Simulations

• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d2_slp+2010051900//72/3

• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d2_850t+2010051900//72/3

• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d2_wssfc+2010051900//72/3

More Simulation

• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d3_wssfc+2010051900///1

• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d3_ww_wssfc+2010051900///1

Stability Changes and Coastal Wind Maxima

• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d3_snd_konp+2010051900///3

Cold West Coast

How Good Are Surface Charts?

• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?/home/disk/data/images/difax/difax_sfc+-url+/images/difax/difax_sfc+all