Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change - … ·  · 2012-02-28Vulnerability and Adaptation...

1

Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate ChangeProf. Dr. Christoph GörgDepartment of Social Sciences, University of KassselHead of Department Environmental Politics, UFZ Leipzig

2

Introduction: Climate Change and Vulnerability

1. Climate Change – from a threat of the future to a reality of the present

2. Challenges of Research on Adaptation

3. The Concept of Vulnerability –between natural and social sciences

4. The Idea of the Workshop, or:what can we learn from Africa?

3

1. Climate Change – a reality of the present

New discourse since IPCC-4AR in 2007

• Climate Change as a reality

• With very differentregional impacts

How to adapt - without ignoring mitigation

4Published by AAAS J. J. McCarthy Science 326, 1646-1655 (2009)

Fig. 5. Actual CO2 emissions versus IPCC scenarios

5

1. Climate Change – a reality of the present

Climate Change is happening right now! E.g.:

• Salinization of wetlands in Bangladesh

• Droughts in semi-arid areas in Africa

• Extreme events in most parts of the world

Adaptation is a necessity!

But how to approach these challenges

• in practice?

• and research?

6

Practical challenges: regional adaptation to CC

Hamburg

DresdenEmscher-Lippe

Berlin-BrandenburgBremen-Oldenburg

Nordhessen

flood risk

winter rain

summerdrought

Ostseeküste

c/o PIK 2005 (Zebisch et al.)

7

2. Challenges of Research on Adaptation

• no single indicator (like GHG-emissions):difficult to measure success or failure

• broad cross-cutting issuecomplex: has to be implemented into all sectors (water, forest, agriculture, infrastructure, housing, urban development, spatial planning – among others)specific: building response capacity in one sector must not lead to capacity in others ( ADAM)

• limits to scientific predictionhigh uncertainties concerning pace, extent & spatial distribution of CC impactsregional impacts?

8

2. Challenges of Research on Adaptation

four dimensions of integration

a) climate change mitigation and adaptation

b) different societal sectors

c) regional vulnerabilities (incl. temporal scales)

d) several vertical levels of decision making

9

2. Challenges of Research on Adaptation

• uncertainty concerning scientific prediction

– different temporal scales involved (e.g. agriculture vs forest, investment decisions vsinfrastructure/spatial planning)

• additional challenge; CC only one driver of societal & environmental change

– sometimes other drivers more important (incl. power relations, economic & financial crises etc.)

⇨ focus on social & environmental vulnerabilities

10

3. The Concept of Vulnerability – between natural and social sciences

Vulnerability: top-down & bottom-up approaches

• not easy to combine both approaches

• top-down approach prevailing• need for research on social vulnerabilities

11

3. The Concept of Vulnerability – between natural and social sciences

Research on natural hazards:

• important topics: knowledge, uncertainty & ignorance

• Cross-cutting issues?

• Synergies & tradeoffs?

• Conflicts & power?

Development research:

• poverty & livelihood

• Coupled socio-ecological systems (e.g. resilience)

• fit for industrialized countries?

Some additional challenges: different sources

12

4. What can we learn from Africa?

Some challenges for applying the concept of vulnerability within Europe:

• Poverty & livelihood depends on politicalregulations (e.g. European agricultural subsidies, national welfare systems)

Coupled socio-ecological systems?

• More indirect links society - natural environment

Knowledge & uncertainties important

Is CC really important?

ignorance about environmental services?

13

Today: two keynotes

• Tim Forsyth (London School of Economics and Political Sciences): Climate Change and Vulnerability. Perspectives of Political Ecology

• Jorge Rojas Hernández (Universidad de Conception, Chile): Challenges of Climate Change in Chile (in German! Translation possible)

Tomorrow: internal Workshop (application required)