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Voting For Congress
Learning Objectives
• Evaluate how people develop political opinions and how this impacts their political behavior.
• Understand the decision making process for why people vote as they do and how this changes over time.
FINISHING UP ON DOWNS
The System Matters
• Single Member Districts =1 Party
• Two Round Systems= multiple parties with ideological coalitions
• PR and Multi-Member Districts- multiple parties
NEW PARTIES
Getting New Parties
• Existing parties cant jump over each other
• New Parties come from– Between the gap– On the fringe
What New parties Want to Do
Win elections Threaten Existing Parties
How can Third Parties Win?
A Shift In Franchise…. The electorate changes!
Splitting the Vote
Ambiguity
• You can try to accomplish everything• It increases your appeal• It makes it harder for the voter to be rational!
Why?
VOTING FOR CONGRESSHow Do We Vote For Congress
Goals of Congressperson
• The Primary Goal is to Get Elected
• The Next goal is to get re-elected(Mayhew, 1974)
Voting For Congress
We have seen this before
PARTISANSHIP AND TURNOUT
Lower turnout in Congressional Elections
• Lower Excitement
• Lower Salience
• Lower Information
Partisanship is Most Important
• The biggest factor in Congressional election
• Even in open seat elections
Safe Seats
• Seat Maximization through Gerrymandering
• Majority Minority Districts
Residential Self Selection
INCUMBENCYMajor Factor 2
Incumbency
• Can Eclipse Partisanship in some places
• A resource that provides many benefits
Incumbent Benefit - Money
• Attract Money at Higher Rates
• The War Chest
Incumbent Benefit- Name Recognition
• We Vote For Who We Know
• What Incumbents Can Do
Benefit 3 – Weak Challengers
• Run against Losers
• Scare off Good Challengers
Lose<Not Run<Win
Incumbency
• The incumbent dominates the discourse
• The incumbent has the advantages
• It is the Incumbent’s to lose
Voluntary Retirements
• When candidates leave office, rather than run for re-election.
• Why people Retire?
HOW INCUMBENTS CAN LOSE
Stop Playing the Game
• Get too Old
• Become inattentive
• Scandal
Strategic Challengers can Alter This
• They run when national trends favor their party
• They have local advantages as well
• They also have the most to lose!
How Strategic Challengers Change Campaigns
• Attract Money
• Can turn National Issues into Local Ones
• Are Quality Challengers as Well
What is a Quality Challenger
• A person who has formerly/currently held elective office
• Name Recognition, Access to Money, a constituuency
INCUMBENCY IN THE HOUSE AND SENATE
House Incumbency in 2008
Senate Incumbency
House vs Senate Incumbents
• Why are Senators more vulnerable?
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