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VAD ÄR SÄKERHET ?. WHAT IS SECURITY?. FUNCTIONING. STAGNATION or CHOKE. STABLE SUSTAINABLE SAFE ORDERLY. DYNAMIC EVOLVING RISKING FREE. EXPLOSION or BURNOUT. ARLANDA. YIN. YANG. VITAL LIFE SYSTEMS. SOCIAL. WHAT ARE OUR VITAL LIFE SYSTEMS?. FUNCTIONAL. HIGH POLITICS. POWER - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
VAD ÄR SÄKERHET ?
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
FUNCTIONING
WHAT IS SECURITY?
VITAL LIFE SYSTEMS
STABLESUSTAINABLESAFEORDERLY
DYNAMICEVOLVINGRISKINGFREE
YINEXPLOSION
orBURNOUT
STAGNATIONor
CHOKEARLANDA
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
SOCIAL
POWERDECISION
S
SOCIAL BASE
ECONOMIC BASE
TECHNOL BASE
NATURAL RESOURCES
HABITAT
HUMAN SECURITY
HIGH POLITICS
FLOW SECURITY
ECOSECURITY
WHAT ARE OUR VITAL LIFE SYSTEMS?
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSWORLD SOCIETY - EARLY GLOBALISING
PREMODERN SOCIETIES
MODERN STATES
GLOBALISING COMMUNITY
0.1 %EXXON-MOBILWALMARTIBMCITIGROUPIKEA
14 %
USAJAPANSINGAPOREHONG KONGSWEDENITALYTAIWAN
5 % SOUTH KOREA(CHINA, INDIA 20%)ESTONIAHUNGARYBRAZIL
10 %THAILANDEGYPT, JORDAN(CHINA, INDIA 40%)
PREMODERN SOCIETIES
5 % RUSSIASYRIA, VENEZUELANORTH KOREA
65 %ANGOLA(CHINA, INDIA 40%)RWANDASUDANZAIRE
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
10 %
5 %
WORLD SOCIETY - EARLY GLOBALISING
PREMODERN SOCIETIES
MODERN STATES
GLOBALISING COMMUNITY
0.1 %
14 %
USAJAPANSINGAPOREHONG KONGSWEDENITALYTAIWAN
5 % SOUTH KOREA(CHINA, INDIA 20%)ESTONIAHUNGARYBRAZIL
PREMODERN SOCIETIES
65 %ANGOLA(CHINA, INDIA 40%)RWANDASUDANZAIRE
COOPERATIONGLOBALISERS
COLLISION
IMPLOSION
CHALLENGE
CRIME
REFUGEESMIGRATION
TERRORREGIONALCONFLICT
DISEASETHAILANDEGYPT, JORDAN(CHINA, INDIA 40%)
RUSSIASYRIA, VENEZUELANORTH KOREA
EXXON-MOBILWALMARTIBMCITIGROUPIKEA
SOCIAL ENGINEERING
’9.11’.2001 - ?2014
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSWORLD SOCIETY - EARLY GLOBALISING
PREMODERN SOCIETIES
MODERN STATES
GLOBALISING COMMUNITY
0.1 %EXXON-MOBILWALMARTIBMCITIGROUPIKEA
14 %
USAJAPANSINGAPOREHONG KONGSWEDENITALYTAIWAN
5 % SOUTH KOREA(CHINA, INDIA 20%)ESTONIAHUNGARYBRAZIL
10 %THAILANDEGYPT, JORDAN(CHINA, INDIA 40%)
PREMODERN SOCIETIES
5 % RUSSIASYRIA, VENEZUELANORTH KOREA
65 %ANGOLA(CHINA, INDIA 40%)RWANDASUDANZAIRE
ZONE OF REVOLUTION
POWER POLITICS
DECLINE
TRANSNATIONAL PROBLEMSMIGRATIONORGANISED CRIMEREVOLUTIONARY MOVEMENTS
BIG POWERSCORRUPTIONCYBERPENETRATIONECONOMIC POWERMILITARY FORCE
OLD POWERSPOLITICAL EXTREMISMSOCIAL PROBLEMSDECAYING INFRASTRUCTURE
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
SOCIAL
POWERDECISIONS
SOCIAL BASE
ECONOMIC BASE
TECHNOL BASE
NATURAL RESOURCES
HABITAT
HUMAN SECURITY
HIGH POLITICS
FLOW SECURITY
ECOSECURITY
WHAT ARE OUR VITAL LIFE SYSTEMS?
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSTRANSNATIONAL NOKIA
18 FACTORIES, 10 COUNTRIES, 84,000 EMPLOYEES
31 R&D CENTRES, 16 COUNTRIES, 37,000 EMPLOYEES
1 HEADQUARTERS, 282 EMPLOYEES
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSTRANSNATIONAL NOKIA
160 COUNTRY MARKETS, 1.5 BILLION CUSTOMERS
18 FACTORIES, 10 COUNTRIES, 84,000 EMPLOYEES
31 R&D CENTRES, 16 COUNTRIES, 37,000 EMPLOYEES
1 HEADQUARTERS, 282 EMPLOYEES
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSBLUE FLOWS
160 COUNTRY MARKETS, 1.5 BILLION CUSTOMERS
18 FACTORIES, 10 COUNTRIES, 84,000 EMPLOYEES
31 R&D CENTRES, 16 COUNTRIES, 37,000 EMPLOYEES
1 HEADQUARTERS, 282 EMPLOYEES BLUE FLOWS - ECONOMIC - TECHNOLOGICAL
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSFLOWS THREATS
SUSTAINABLESUPPLY
DIRECT POLITICALCHALLENGE-Terrorism- Rogue States
REGIONALINSTABILITY
SECURITYOF SUPPLY
FRICTION- Piracy- Crime- Corruption
PANDEMICEARTHQUAKEVOLCANOESSTORMSSOLAR STORMS
DESIGN (Y2K)MAINTENANCEMANAGEMENT(2008-09)
ATLANTIC ECONOMIC
CRISIS
OILPRICES
PANDEMIC
SYSTEMICSABOTAGE
PRC ECONOMIC
CRISIS
TECHNICALBREAK
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
VART ÄR VI PÅ VÄG ?
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSDEEP TRENDS TO 2030
POWERDECISIONS
SOCIAL BASE
ECONOMIC BASE
TECHNOL BASE
NATURAL RESOURCES
HABITAT
GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS
ORGANISED CRIME – REVOLUTION - MIGRATION
INEQUALITY - MISERY - RAGE
GREATER DIVERSITY, LESS CONSENSUS
SATISFIED SOCIETIES
INTEGRATED ELITES
20% RICHGET POORER
20% POORGET RICHER
20% POORSTAGNATE
40% MISERABLESINK DEEPER
FADING’WEST’
MOREMONEY
GREATERTECHNOLOGY
SOCIALTURBULENCE
MORECONNECTED
MORETRANSNATIONAL
STRESSES
RISING’EAST’
ENTRENCHEDALIENATED
NEWACTORS
MOREPOWERMORE
VULNERABLEANTAGONISTICCRIME
MISCHIEFDESIGN
MANAGEMENT
RETURN OFGRAND POLITICS
DEPLETION DEGRADATION DISRUPTION
SCARCITY
TURBULENCE
GLOBAL SOCIAL AND POLITICAL
COLLAPSE
DEPRESSIONOR COLLAPSE
POWER POLITICS, INTERSTATE WAR?
?SCARCITYFOOD PRICESHUNGERCOMPETITION
SCARCITY COMMODITY PRICES LOSS - Oil, water, arable land, fish
TURBULENCE DESSICATION / INUNDATION MIGRATION BLAME
TURBULENCE DISRUPTION – Japan, Volcanic ash COST – Repair, Insure
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSDEEP TRENDS TO 2030
POWERDECISIONS
SOCIAL BASE
ECONOMIC BASE
TECHNOL BASE
NATURAL RESOURCES
HABITATECOPROTECTIO
N
POWER POLITICS
BARRIER OPS
FLOW SECURITY
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSDEEP TRENDS TO 2030
POWERDECISIONS
SOCIAL BASE
ECONOMIC BASE
TECHNOL BASE
NATURAL RESOURCES
HABITAT
PANDEMIC
SCARCITY COMMODITY PRICES LOSS - Oil, water, arable land, fish
TURBULENCE DISRUPTION - Storms, Volcanic ash COST – Repair, Insure
DESIGNMANAGEMENT
ANTAGONISTICCRIME
MISCHIEF
MEGASABOTAG
E
MISTAKES
AUSTERITY
FLOWWAR
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
HUR HANTERA HOTEN ?
1. BREDA
2. KOMPLEXA
3. OFÖRUTSEBARA
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSYESTERDAYS SECURITY HORIZON
POLITICAL
3. INCREASED UNPREDICTABILITY
EXTERNALHARMONY
- One DotYESTERDAY – One Dimension
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSTODAY’S SECURITY HORIZON
POLITICAL FUNCTIONAL
ECOLOGICAL
THREE DIMENSIONS
EXTERNALHARMONY
DOMESTICHARMONY
ECONOMICBASE
TECHNOLBASE
NATURALRESOURCES
ECOSYSTEM
- Six Dots - Ten Flashpoints
DOMESTICTENSIONS
EXTERNALTENSIONS
DELIBERATEATTACK
INHERENTSTRAIN
ECOSTRESSECOSTRESS
DEPLETION
DEGRADATION
DISRUPTION
DISASTER(unnatural)
- ALL INTERACTING
FASTINFECTIOUSSYNTHETIC
LETHAL
VASTLYINCREASED
UNCERTAINTY
CONCLUSION THREE
FORECASTING +
PLANNING INSUFFICIENT
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSTHREAT ANALYSIS - DEATH vs. SEVERITY
SEVERITY
EXISTENCE
VITAL
COMFORT
MORAL
LIKELIHOODREMOTE POSSIBLE LIKELY HAPPENING
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSTHREAT ANALYSIS - DEATH vs. SEVERITY
SEVERITY
EXISTENCE
VITAL
COMFORT
MORAL
LIKELIHOODREMOTE POSSIBLE LIKELY HAPPENING
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSPRACTICAL CONSEQUENCES
visibility
KNOWN THREATS
FORECAST + COUNTER
PLAN AND MANIPULATESHIELD: DETER, DEFENDTRANSFORM: NEUTRALISE, CONVERT
SURPRISING THREATSREACT + DODGE
AGILITYSPEED, FLEXIBILITY
UNKNOWN THREATSSURVIVE + RECOVER
RESILIENCEELASTIC, ROBUST, REPAIRING
DARWIN
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSNEW HISTORICAL ERA - WAVES
ABILITY TOMANIPULATE MATTER
TIME
… 8000 BC 1700 2000
GATHER-HUNT
AGRICULTURE
INDUSTRY
INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGICAL WAVES
Alvin Toffler: “The Third Wave.”Thomas Kuhn: “Structure of Scientific Revolutions.”Schumpeter (wavelets of industrial age)
TRANSFORM HUMAN CONDITION
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
GLOBALISED AGE
GLOBALISATION - DEEP IMPLICATIONS
MODERN ERASHRINKING WORLD
ECOLOGY UNLIMITED, STRONG FINITE, WEAK D + D + D
HUMAN HUGE SMALL INTIMATE CONTACT
TIME SLOW FAST
PRIVACY BROAD - TOP DOWN- LISTS + GATES
NARROW BOTTOM UPTAGS + GRIDSPERVASIVE+INTRUSIVE
LIQUID WORLDECONOMY STATE CENTRED GLOBAL TRANSNATIONALSOCIETIES ROOTED FLOATING
TECHN. INFR. STATE + LOCAL PRIVATE + GLOBALTIME SEGMENTED m-f 9-5 CONTINUOUS 24/7
POWER STATE + STATE + STATE STATE + NEW ACTORS
INFORMATION CONCENTRATED DISPERSED INTERNET
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
GLOBALISED AGE
GLOBALISATION - NEW SECURITY AGENDA
MODERN ERA
NEW POLITICALFAULT LINES
HORISONTAL
PEER COMPETITION
VERTICAL
ASYMMETRIC TENSIONS
BROADERTHREATS
ONE-DIMENSIONAL- PEER POLITICS
THREE-DIMENSIONAL- ASYMMETRIC POLITICS
- NEW VULNERABILITIES- ECONOMIC BASE- TECHNOLOGICAL BASE
- RISING ECOLOGICAL CRISIS
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSGLOBAL VILLAGE - EDGE OF REVOLUTION
GNP pc ppp 000 USD
30
25
20
15
10
05
01
GLOBALISED ELITE <1 % DAIMLER-BENZ
NOKIA
RICH GLOBALISING 14 % 947.3
USA
SWITZ, NORWAY
JAPAN
HONG KONGFINLAND
ITALYTAIWAN
SPAINNEW ZEALANDSOUTH KOREA
CHINA, INDIA 10%BRAZIL
LATE MODERN (RTE) 5 % 233.7
RUSSIABELARUS
IRANCHINA, INDIA 10%
EARLY MODERN 15 % 891.0ECUADOR
VENEZUELALIBYA, EGYPT, SYRIA
CHINA, INDIA 80%
PREMODERN 32 %
34 %
1,925.2
2,066.2
ANGOLALAOS
CONGORWANDA
FLOW WORLD
ZONE OF REVOLUTION
ZONE OF CRIPPLING MISERY
POWER POLITICS
BIG POWERSCORRUPTIONCYBERPENETRATIONECONOMIC POWERMILITARY FORCE
OLD POWERSPOLITICAL EXTREMISMSOCIAL PROBLEMSDECAYING INFRASTRUCTURE
TRANSNATIONAL PROBLEMSMIGRATIONORGANISED CRIMEREVOLUTIONARY MOVEMENTS
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
GLOBAL ECOCRISIS SCARCITY TURBULENCE
GLOBAL POWER POLITICAL TRENDS 2012
DECLINE
DEPARTING
RISING
UNSTABLE
DISASTER
ACTIVATING
GOOD
DETERIORATING
COMPLICATING
DANGEROUS
GROWING
GROWING
GROWING
?
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS1949 - 2012
LORD ISMAY ON NATO 1949
KEEP RUSSIA OUT,UNITED STATES IN,
AND GERMANY DOWN
SITUATION TODAY
US GOING OUT,RUSSIA GOING UP,
AND EUROPE DOWN
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
GLOBALISED AGE
GLOBALISATION - NEW SECURITY AGENDA
MODERN ERA
NEW POLITICALFAULT LINES
HORISONTAL
PEER COMPETITION
VERTICAL
ASYMMETRIC TENSIONS
BROADERTHREATS
ONE-DIMENSIONAL- PEER POLITICS
THREE-DIMENSIONAL- ASYMMETRIC POLITICS
- NEW VULNERABILITIES- ECONOMIC BASE- TECHNOLOGICAL BASE
- RISING ECOLOGICAL CRISIS
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSDEEP TRENDS TO 2030
POWERDECISIONS
SOCIAL BASE
ECONOMIC BASE
TECHNOL BASE
NATURAL RESOURCES
HABITAT
MOREMONEY
GREATERTECHNOLOGY
SOCIALTURBULENCE
MORECONNECTED
MORETRANSNATIONAL
STRESSES
MOREPOWERMORE
VULNERABLE
SCARCITY
TURBULENCE
DEPRESSIONOR COLLAPSE?
SCARCITYFOOD PRICESHUNGERCOMPETITION
SCARCITY COMMODITY PRICES LOSS - Oil, water, arable land, fish
TURBULENCE DESSICATION / INUNDATION MIGRATION BLAME
TURBULENCE DISRUPTION – Japan, Volcanic ash COST – Repair, Insure
RETURN OFGRAND POLITICS
INTERSTATEWAR
GLOBAL SOCIAL AND POLITICAL
COLLAPSE
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSDEEP TRENDS TO 2030
POWERDECISIONS
SOCIAL BASE
ECONOMIC BASE
TECHNOL BASE
NATURAL RESOURCES
HABITAT
20% RICHGET POORER
20% POORGET RICHER
20% POORSTAGNATE
40% MISERABLESINK DEEPER
FADING’WEST’
MOREMONEY
GREATERTECHNOLOGY
SOCIALTURBULENCE
MORECONNECTED
MORETRANSNATIONAL
STRESSES
RISING’EAST’
ENTRENCHEDALIENATED
NEWACTORS
MOREPOWERMORE
VULNERABLEANTAGONISTICCRIME
MISCHIEFDESIGN
MANAGEMENT
RETURN OFGRAND POLITICSGLOBAL SOCIAL
ANDPOLITICAL COLLAPSE
DEPLETION DEGRADATION DISRUPTION
SCARCITY
TURBULENCE
DEEPENINGECOLOGICAL
CRISIS
RESURGINGGLOBAL
POWER POLITICS
POWERFULTOOLS
(ECON – S&T
BUTVULNERABLE
ECOPROTECTION
POWER POLITICS
BARRIER OPS
FLOW SECURITY
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
BROAD CHALLENGES
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
1. HOLISTIC
HOW SHOULD WE THINK SECURITY?
2. SYNERGISTIC
3. UNCERTAIN
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSFOUNDATIONS OF OUR SECURITY
SOCIAL
ELITEPOLITICS
STRUCTURALSTABILITY
FUNCTIONAL
ECONOMICBASE
TECHNOLBASE
ECOLOGICAL
NATURALRESOURCES
HABITAT
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSDEEP TRENDS
SOCIAL
DOMESTICHARMONY
EXTERNALHARMONY
FUNCTIONAL
ECONOMICBASE
TECHNOLBASE
ECOLOGICAL
NATURALRESOURCES
ECOSYSTEM
FADING’WEST’
RISING’EAST’ENTRENCHED
ALIENATEDNEWACTORS
20% RICHGET POORER
DEPLETION
DEGRADATION
DISRUPTION
20% POORGET RICHER20% POOR
STAGNATE40% MISERABLESINK DEEPER
CYBER STUXNET 2010 NORWAY 2010, ESTONIA 2007
TRANSNATIONAL ORGANISED CRIME REVOLUTION MIGRATION
GRAND POLITICS LESS CONSENSUS POWER POLITICS INTERSTATE WARS
TURBULENCE DISRUPTION – Japan, Volcanic ash COST – Repair, InsureSCARCITY PRICES – Oil, minerals AVAILABILITY – Oil, Water, Arable land, fish
SCARCITY FOOD PRICES HUNGERTURBULENCE DESERTIFICATION REFUGEES
STRUCTURAL GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS GREATER INEQUALITY MISERY , FRUSTRATION
MORECONNECTED
MOREMONEY
GREATERTECHNOLOGY
FUNCTIONAL SATISFIED SOCIETIES INTEGRATED ELITES POWERFUL TOOLS ECOLOGICAL PRICE
KINETIIC 9.11 MADRID LONDON
DESIGN Y2KMANAGEMENT WALL STR 2008-09
MOREPOWER
MORE VULNERABLE
ANTAGONISTICCRIME
MISCHIEF
INHERENT
GLOBALCLASS
TENSIONS
DOMESTICTURBULENCE
ELITEDIVERSITYELITE
INTEGRATIONGLOBAL SOCIAL AND POLITICAL COLLAPSE
SCARCITY TURBULENCE
DEEPENINGECOLOGICAL CRISIS
NEGLECT
PANDEMIC
MEGASABOTAG
E
?
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSDEEP TRENDS TO 2030
SOCIAL
DOMESTICHARMONY
EXTERNALHARMONY
FUNCTIONAL
ECONOMICBASE
TECHNOLBASE
ECOLOGICAL
NATURALRESOURCES
ECOSYSTEM
FADING’WEST’
RISING’EAST’ENTRENCHED
ALIENATEDNEWACTORS
20% RICHGET POORER
DEPLETION
DEGRADATION
DISRUPTION
20% POORGET RICHER20% POOR
STAGNATE40% MISERABLESINK DEEPER
CYBER STUXNET 2010 NORWAY 2010, ESTONIA 2007
TRANSNATIONAL ORGANISED CRIME REVOLUTION MIGRATION
GRAND POLITICS LESS CONSENSUS POWER POLITICS INTERSTATE WARS
TURBULENCE DISRUPTION – Japan, Volcanic ash COST – Repair, InsureSCARCITY PRICES – Oil, minerals AVAILABILITY – Oil, Water, Arable land, fish
SCARCITY FOOD PRICES HUNGERTURBULENCE DESERTIFICATION REFUGEES
STRUCTURAL GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS GREATER INEQUALITY MISERY , FRUSTRATION
MORECONNECTED
MOREMONEY
GREATERTECHNOLOGY
FUNCTIONAL SATISFIED SOCIETIES INTEGRATED ELITES POWERFUL TOOLS ECOLOGICAL PRICE
KINETIIC 9.11 MADRID LONDON
DESIGN Y2KMANAGEMENT WALL STR 2008-09
MOREPOWER
MORE VULNERABLE
INHERENT
GLOBALCLASS
TENSIONS
DOMESTICTURBULENCE
ELITEDIVERSITY ELITE
INTEGRATION
GLOBAL SOCIAL AND POLITICAL COLLAPSE
ANTAGONISTICCRIME
MISCHIEF
SCARCITY TURBULENCE
DEEPENINGECOLOGICAL CRISIS
CONCLUSION ONE
HOLISTIC PERSPECTIVE
NO TUNNEL VISION
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSEMERGING THREAT ENVIRONMENT
POLITICAL
EXTERNALHARMONY
DOMESTICHARMONY
FUNCTIONAL
ECONOMICBASE
TECHNOLBASE
ECOLOGICAL
NATURALRESOURCES
ECOSYSTEMPANDEMIC
2. INCREASED SYNERGIES - TRANSDIMENSIONAL RICOCHETS
CONCLUSION TWO
SYNERGISTIC PERSPECTIVE
AWARE OF LATERAL LEAPS
INTEGRATED RESPONSE
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
WHERE ARE WE ?
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
POLITICAL CHALLENGES
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
2. WHERE ARE WE NOW?
1. WHAT IS THE MILITARY?
3. WHERE ARE WE GOING?
4. PRIORITIES
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
CORE HIGH QUALITY VIOLENCE
1.1. MASSIVE VIOLENCE: National Defence HIC (deter, defend)Power Projection HIC (deter,enforce)
1.2. NARROW VIOLENCE: Surgical Violence SUR (hunt+kill, intercept, rescue)Supporting Violence EVA (evacuation)
1.3. RESTRAINED VIOLENCE: Global Social Engineering BOG (PSO, MASD)Policing POL (asset protection, barriers, flows)
DERIVATIVE
2.1. INFLUENCE - PSYCHOLOGICAL SPINOFFS OF MILITARY VIOLENCEDETER: Stick - threaten pain FPS + VIT (policing, show of force)COERCE: Stick - apply pain VIT (gunboat diplomacy)ATTRACT: Carrot - being useful FPS (burden sharing, high tech)
2.2. FUNCTIONAL - IMPROVISED SUPPORT FOR SOCIETYECONOMIC JAS GripenC4SIR: If civil infrastructure damaged (ATC) DEFSECURITY: If civil police overwhelmed (Hurricane Katrina)WORKERS: Organised labour for crises (Katrina, China quake, Oil spills)LOGISTICS: Transport & logistics for emergencies (Nokia, Gudrun)HIGH TECH: Specialised capabilities (Drug interdiction surveillance, etc.)
UNIQUE MILITARY CAPABILITY - NATO SCC 07.08
MILITARY SHOULD NOT DO THIS
- BUT IF NOTHING ELSE IS AROUND...
Katrina, Chinese Earthquake, Gudrun, Nokia +
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
2. WHERE ARE WE NOW?
1. WHAT IS THE MILITARY?
3. WHERE ARE WE GOING?
4. PRIORITIES
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
STABILISATION AND RECONSTRUCTION IS OVER
HUMAN SECURITYPEACE ENFORCEMENTCOINSTATE BUILDINGCOMPREHENSIVE APPROACHETC
DECAPITATION IS IN
INTERSTATE WAR IS RETURNING
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
2. WHERE ARE WE NOW?
1. WHAT IS THE MILITARY?
3. WHERE ARE WE GOING?
4. PRIORITIES
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
3.1. NEW MISSIONS
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
3.2. NEW DOMESTIC PRECONDITIONS
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
2. DENIAL
1. AUSTERITY
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
3.3. INCREASED UNCERTAINTY
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
2. WHERE ARE WE NOW?
1. WHAT IS THE MILITARY?
3. WHERE ARE WE GOING?
4. PRIORITIES
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSGLOBAL POWER POLITICAL SITUATION 2013
GLOBAL ECOCRISIS SCARCITY TURBULENCE
UP
UNSTABLE
RISING
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSGLOBAL POWER POLITICAL SITUATION 2013
UP
DOWN
OUT
GlobalHard
partnerRecession
Military dominanceBut one–
warFocus
Asia
ContinentalHard strangerIncome
Military buildupStrategic nuclearEurostrategic
(Iskander+)Conventional (2012-
2022
Soft grandmother
DeclineMilitary void
Strategic national
Eurostrategic void
Stupid defence
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
2. VAR ÄR VI NU?
1. VAD ÄR SÄKERHET?
3. FRAMTIDSTRENDER
4. HUR HANTERA EXPLOSIV KOMPLEXITET?
2.1. SOCIALA DIMENSIONEN
2.2. FUNKTIONELLA DIMENSIONEN
2.3. ECOLOGISKA DIMENSIONEN
MANAGING THE BIG PICTURE
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
2. VAR ÄR VI NU?
1. VAD ÄR SÄKERHET?
3. FRAMTIDSTRENDER
4. HUR HANTERA EXPLOSIV KOMPLEXITET?
2.1. SOCIALA DIMENSIONEN
2.2. FUNKTIONELLA DIMENSIONEN
2.3. ECOLOGISKA DIMENSIONEN
MANAGING THE BIG PICTURE
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
SOCIAL
POWERDECISIONS
SOCIAL BASE
ECONOMIC BASE
TECHNOL BASE
NATURAL RESOURCES
HABITAT
HUMAN SECURITY
HIGH POLITICS
FLOW SECURITY
ECOSECURITY
WHAT ARE OUR VITAL LIFE SYSTEMS?
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
GLOBAL ECOCRISIS SCARCITY TURBULENCE
GLOBAL POWER POLITICAL SITUATION 2007
HEALTHY
HEALTHY+
PRESENT
WEAK
UNSTABLE
DISASTER
VOID BOOMING
GOOD
DETERIORATING
COMPLICATING
DANGEROUS
GROWING
GROWING
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS1949 - 2012
LORD ISMAY ON NATO 1949
KEEP RUSSIA OUT,UNITED STATES IN,
AND GERMANY DOWN
SITUATION TODAY
US GOING OUT,RUSSIA GOING UP,
AND EUROPE DOWN
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
2. VAR ÄR VI NU?
1. VAD ÄR SÄKERHET?
3. FRAMTIDSTRENDER
4. HUR HANTERA EXPLOSIV KOMPLEXITET?
2.1. SOCIALA DIMENSIONEN
2.2. FUNKTIONELLA DIMENSIONEN
2.3. ECOLOGISKA DIMENSIONEN
MANAGING THE BIG PICTURE
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
2. VAR ÄR VI NU?
1. VAD ÄR SÄKERHET?
3. FRAMTIDSTRENDER
4. HUR HANTERA EXPLOSIV KOMPLEXITET?
2.1. SOCIALA DIMENSIONEN
2.2. FUNKTIONELLA DIMENSIONEN
2.3. ECOLOGISKA DIMENSIONEN
MANAGING THE BIG PICTURE
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
SOCIAL
POWERDECISIONS
SOCIAL BASE
ECONOMIC BASE
TECHNOL BASE
NATURAL RESOURCES
HABITAT
HUMAN SECURITY
HIGH POLITICS
FLOW SECURITY
ECOSECURITY
WHAT ARE OUR VITAL LIFE SYSTEMS?
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
DEPLETIONnon-renewable resources oil, gas, minerals
DEGRADATIONof regional biospheres fish, water, arable land
DISRUPTIONof global ecosystem climate change
THE ECOLOGICAL CRISIS
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
1. GLOBAL ECOLOGICAL CRISIS WILL CONTINUE TO GROW DEPLETION – OIL, GAS +
DEGRADATION – WATER, ARABLE LAND, FISH +
DISRUPTION – CLIMATE CHANGE, EXTREMES
2. TWO BIG PROBLEMSSCARCITY
TURBULENCE
3. ECOLOGICAL CONCERNS WILL DOMINATE AGENDA MOREDOMESTIC - PAIN AND ANGER – VOTERS AND CONSUMERS
GRAND POLITICS 1 – ECOPROTECTION
GRAND POLITICS 2 – ECOEXPLOITATION
4. LEGITIMACY INCREASINGLY DEFINED IN ECOLOGICAL TERMSSOCIAL CONTRACT = ECOLOGICAL CONTRACT
5. CONFLICTS INCREASINGLY FOCUS ON ECOLOGICAL ISSUESTENSION ECONOMIC GROWTH – SUSTAINED ECOLOGY
CONFLICT SOVEREIGNTY - ECOPROTECTION
ECOSECURITY – TRENDS TO 2020
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
DEEPENINGCRISIS
THE AGENDA
1. SCIENTIFIC
1.1. UNDERSTANDUNDERSTAND WHAT IS HAPPENINGPROVIDE SIGNIFICANT CONSENSUS – IPCC
1.2. ADAPTDEVELOP RESILIENCE
1.3. SOLVEPROPOSE SOLUTIONSHELP DEVELOP ECOFRIENDLY TECHNOLOGY
2. POLITICAL
2.1. SOFT - MULTILATERAL AGENDADELIMITATION AND OWNERSHIP – UNCLOS IIREGULATE OUR BEHAVIOUR - Kyoto, CopenhagenGOVERNANCE – including of frustration
2.2. ADAPTIVE – SYSTEMIC AGENDAADJUST FUNCTIONAL BASE
3. MILITARY
3.1. GREEN - POLICE AGENDAOVERSEE ECOLOGICAL RULES ENFORCE RULESMANAGE CONFRONTATIONS
3.2.. BLACK – ZERO-SUM AGENDADEFEND ECOLOGICAL ASSETS CONQUER ECOLOGICAL ASSETS
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
2. VAR ÄR VI NU?
1. VAD ÄR SÄKERHET?
3. FRAMTIDSTRENDER
4. HUR HANTERA EXPLOSIV KOMPLEXITET?
2.1. SOCIALA DIMENSIONEN
2.2. FUNKTIONELLA DIMENSIONEN
2.3. ECOLOGISKA DIMENSIONEN
MANAGING THE BIG PICTURE
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
2. VAR ÄR VI NU?
1. VAD ÄR SÄKERHET?
3. FRAMTIDSTRENDER
4. HUR HANTERA EXPLOSIV KOMPLEXITET?
2.1. SOCIALA DIMENSIONEN
2.2. FUNKTIONELLA DIMENSIONEN
2.3. ECOLOGISKA DIMENSIONEN
MANAGING THE BIG PICTURE
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
MILITARY BUILDUP – EUROSTRATEGIC NUCLEAR + CONVENTIONAL
DOMESTIC INSTABILITY
1. RUSSIAN MILITARY PRESSURE / CONFRONTATION
2. ARCTIC TENSIONS
3. EUROPE DECLINING
WESTPHALIAN WORLDVIEW – ZERO SUM COMPETITION
DICTATORSIP WITH RAW MATERIAL REVENUES
STRATEGIC NUCLEAR – RUSSIAN SSBN FLEET RETURNING
ECONOMIC – CONTROL OVER NATURAL RESOURCES
ECOLOGICAL – A) REGULATION B) CATASTROPHES AND RESPONSIBILITY
NORDIC REGIONAL IMPACT
ECONOMIC DECLINE / COLLAPSE
SOCIAL AND POLITICAL CONSEQUENCE
RUSSIA IS RETURNING
ARCTIC IS ACTIVATING
LIBERAL ORDER FADING
4. GREATER ISOLATIONEU – WEAKER
US – SHIFT TO ASIA
NORDIC-BALTIC MILITARY CRISES
DELIBERATE RUSSIAN HARD PRESSURE
ARCTIC REGULATION
ARCTIC ECOLOGICAL DISASTERS
ARCTIC POL-MIL CRISES
EUROPEAN INSTABILITY
LESS HELP
EUROPEAN WEAKNESS
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSSECURITY FOCUS 2020
SOCIAL
DOMESTICHARMONY
EXTERNALHARMONY
FUNCTIONAL
ECONOMICBASE
TECHNOLBASE
ECOLOGICAL
NATURALRESOURCES
ECOSYSTEMDEPLETION
DEGRADATION
DISRUPTION
TRANSNATIONAL ORGANISED CRIME REVOLUTION MIGRATION
GRAND POLITICS LESS CONSENSUS POWER POLITICS INTERSTATE WARS
TURBULENCE DISRUPTION – Japan, Volcanic ash COST – Repair, InsureSCARCITY PRICES – Oil, minerals AVAILABILITY – Oil, Water, Arable land, fish
SCARCITY FOOD PRICES HUNGERTURBULENCE DESERTIFICATION REFUGEES
STRUCTURAL GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS GREATER INEQUALITY MISERY , FRUSTRATION
MORECONNECTED
MOREMONEY
GREATERTECHNOLOGY
FUNCTIONAL SATISFIED SOCIETIES INTEGRATED ELITES POWERFUL TOOLS ECOLOGICAL PRICE
MOREPOWERMORE
VULNERABLE
DOMESTICTURBULENCE
GLOBALCLASS
TENSIONS
ELITEDIVERSITY
ELITEINTEGRATION
SCARCITY TURBULENCE
DEEPENINGECOLOGICAL CRISIS
SOCIAL - POLITICALGLOBAL COLLAPSE
MEGASABOTAG
E NEGLECT
PANDEMIC
BARRIER OPS
DOMESTIC STABILITY
DECAPITATION OPS
GLOBALPOWER POLITICS
FLOW SECURITY
ECOPROTECTION
ECOCOMPETITION
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSNEW HISTORICAL ERA - WAVES
ABILITY TOMANIPULATE MATTER
TIME
… 8000 BC 1700 2000
GATHER-HUNT
AGRICULTURE
INDUSTRY
INFORMATION
?
?
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
FADING DICHOTOMIESPEACE WARDOMESTIC FOREIGNNEAR FARBUSINESS POLITICSCIVIL MILITARYNATIONAL MULTINATIONAL
SHIFTING BORDERS’WEST’ > OECD + RTEPUBLIC > PRIVATESTATE > INDIVIDUALGOVT > NGOPRIVACY > SURVEILLANCELIBERTY > CONTROLNATIONAL > TRANSNATIONAL
PHENOMENOLOGY OF THE LIQUID WORLD
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
VÅRFRAMTID
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
DOMESTIC STABILITY
LITTLE POWER POLITICS
TRANSNATIONAL CHALLENGES
SOCIAL DIMENSION 1990 - 2011
GREAT POWER POLITICS
GOOD BAD UGLY
1990END OF
HISTORY
1992BALKANS
1995DAYTON
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
DOMESTIC STABILITY
LITTLE POWER POLITICS
TRANSNATIONAL CHALLENGES
SOCIAL DIMENSION 1990 - 2011
GREAT POWER POLITICS
GOOD BAD UGLY
1995DAYTON
1990END OF
HISTORY
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
DOMESTIC STABILITY
LITTLE POWER POLITICS
TRANSNATIONAL CHALLENGES
SOCIAL DIMENSION 1990 - 2011
GREAT POWER POLITICS
GOOD BAD UGLY
1995DAYTON
20019.11
1990END OF
HISTORY
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
DOMESTIC STABILITY
LITTLE POWER POLITICS
TRANSNATIONAL CHALLENGES
SOCIAL DIMENSION 1990 - 2011
GREAT POWER POLITICS
GOOD BAD UGLY
1995DAYTON
20019.11
1990END OF
HISTORY
2001GLOBAL SOCIAL ENGINEERING
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
DOMESTIC STABILITY
LITTLE POWER POLITICS
TRANSNATIONAL CHALLENGES
SOCIAL DIMENSION 1990 - 2011
GREAT POWER POLITICS
GOOD BAD UGLY
1995DAYTON
1990END OF
HISTORY
2001GLOBAL SOCIAL ENGINEERING
2006GLOBAL SOCIAL ENGINEERING
2010IRAQ
AFPAK
20019.11
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
DOMESTIC STABILITY
LITTLE POWER POLITICS
TRANSNATIONAL CHALLENGES
SOCIAL DIMENSION 1990 - 2011
GREAT POWER POLITICS
GOOD BAD UGLY
1995DAYTON
2010IRAQ
AFPAK
20019.11
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
DOMESTIC STABILITY
LITTLE POWER POLITICS
TRANSNATIONAL CHALLENGES
SOCIAL DIMENSION 1990 - 2011
GREAT POWER POLITICS
GOOD BAD UGLY
1995DAYTON
2010IRAQ
AFPAK
2007…RUSSIAPRC +
2011…LONDONEU, US…
2011…EU BANKRUPT
20019.11
RETURN OFINTER-STATE WAR?
END OF THELIBERAL AGE?
COLLAPSEOF THE EU?
ASIA
SHADOWWAR
USELESS
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
BROADER THREATS
PHENOMENOLOGY OF NEW ENVIRONMENT
MORE COMPLEX
MORE ECOTURBULENCE
BROAD - SYNTHETIC - FAST
LESS PREDICTABLE
WHAT WE SEE
WHAT IT MEANS
POORER RICH STATES AGE OF AUSTERITY
LESS NATURAL RESOURCES
SECURITY ENVIRONMENT
DEEP TRENDS
SHRINKING WORLD
ERODING STRUCTURES
HUMAN, ECOLOGICAL
STATE TO TRANSNATIONAL
MORE HUMAN POWER SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, ECONOMY – BUT!!
NEW POLITICAL FAULT LINES FROM PEER-PEER TO PEER-PEER-POOR
MORE TENSE
MORE VOLATILE
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSPHENOMENOLOGY OF NEW ENVIRONMENT
WHAT WE SEE
DECLINING RICH STATES AGE OF AUSTERITY
GLOBAL MEGATRENDS
SHRINKING WORLD
LIQUID WORLD
HUMAN, ECOLOGICAL
STATE TO TRANSNATIONAL
MORE HUMAN POWER SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, ECONOMY – BUT!!
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
Source: Fund for Peace: Failed States Index 2009
Zimbabwe -19.10Nigeria -15.50Pakistan -14.70Somalia -21.40Central African Republic -11.70Chad -11.30 800
Guinea -9.90 Afghanistan -9.20 Kenya -8.70 Sudan -8.30 Burma -8.10 Ethiopia -7.80 Iraq -5.40 Bangladesh -3.80 Dem. Rep. of the Congo -3.40 Haiti -2.60 North Korea -2.60 400
Yemen 1.60 Ivory Coast 3.50 Colombia 5.80 Rwanda 7.50 Liberia 7.70 80
Sierra Leone 10.00 Bosnia 10.20 Venezuela 14.00 Dominican Republic 16.50 Paraguay 16.90 Ukraine 19.10 Morocco 21.80 Bahrain 26.60 80
Change 2005-2008 Pop. (m)
GLOBAL SOCIAL ENGINEERING – LOSING STRATEGY
1,200MILLION
160 MILLION
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSGLOBAL VILLAGE - EDGE OF REVOLUTION
GNP pc ppp 000 USD
30
25
20
15
10
05
01
GLOBALISED ELITE <1 % DAIMLER-BENZ
NOKIA
RICH GLOBALISING 14 % 947.3
USA
SWITZ, NORWAY
JAPAN
HONG KONGFINLAND
ITALYTAIWAN
SPAINNEW ZEALANDSOUTH KOREA
CHINA, INDIA 10%
LATE MODERN (RTE) 5 % 233.7
CZECH REPESTONIA
BRAZILCHINA, INDIA 10%
EARLY MODERN 15 % 891.0RUSSIA
VENEZUELASYRIA
CHINA, INDIA 80%
PREMODERN 32 %
34 %
1,925.2
2,066.2
ANGOLALAOS
CONGORWANDA
age
78
46
m<5
0.6%
18%
maln
0%
40%
ser
69%
39%
man
25%
9%
ind
7%
14%
agr
2%
39%
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSDEEP TRENDS TO 2030
POWERDECISIONS
SOCIAL BASE
ECONOMIC BASE
TECHNOL BASE
NATURAL RESOURCES
HABITAT
GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS
ORGANISED CRIME – REVOLUTION - MIGRATION
INEQUALITY - MISERY - RAGE
GREATER DIVERSITY, LESS CONSENSUS
UNDERSTANDING TOOLS
SATISFIED SOCIETIES
INTEGRATED ELITES
ECOLOGICAL PRICE
20% RICHGET POORER
20% POORGET RICHER
20% POORSTAGNATE
40% MISERABLESINK DEEPER
FADING’WEST’
MOREMONEY
GREATERTECHNOLOGY
SOCIALTURBULENCE
MORECONNECTED
MORETRANSNATIONAL
STRESSES
RISING’EAST’
ENTRENCHEDALIENATED
NEWACTORS
MOREPOWERMORE
VULNERABLEANTAGONISTICCRIME
MISCHIEFDESIGN
MANAGEMENT
RETURN OFGRAND POLITICS
DEPLETION DEGRADATION DISRUPTION
SCARCITY
TURBULENCE
SCARCITYFOOD PRICESHUNGERCOMPETITION
SCARCITY COMMODITY PRICES LOSS - Oil, water, arable land, fish
GLOBAL SOCIAL AND POLITICAL
COLLAPSE
TURBULENCE DESSICATION / INUNDATION MIGRATION BLAME
TURBULENCE DISRUPTION – Japan, Volcanic ash COST – Repair, Insure
DEEPENINGECOLOGICAL
CRISIS
RESURGINGGLOBAL
POWER POLITICS
DEPRESSIONOR COLLAPSE
POWERFULTOOLS
(ECON – S&T
BUTVULNERABLE
PANDEMIC
MISTAKES
MEGASABOTAG
E
POWER POLITICS, INTERSTATE WAR?
TOOLS
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSDEEP TRENDS TO 2030
POWERDECISIONS
SOCIAL BASE
ECONOMIC BASE
TECHNOL BASE
NATURAL RESOURCES
HABITAT
20% RICHGET POORER
20% POORGET RICHER
20% POORSTAGNATE
40% MISERYSINK DEEPER
FADING’WEST’
MOREMONEY
GREATERTECHNOLOGY
MOREPOWERMORE
VULNERABLEANTAGONISTIC
CRIMEMISCHIEF
DESIGNMANAGEMENT
DEPLETION DEGRADATION DISRUPTION
SCARCITY
TURBULENCE
INEQUALITY - MISERY - RAGE SOCIALTURBULENCE
MORECONNECTED
ORGANISED CRIME – REVOLUTION - MIGRATIONMORE
TRANSNATIONAL STRESSES
RISING’EAST’
ENTRENCHEDALIENATED
NEWACTORS
GREATER DIVERSITY, LESS CONSENSUS
POWER POLITICS, INTERSTATE WAR?
GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS
RETURN OFGRAND POLITICS
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSGREEN FLOWS
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSTHREE DIMENSIONS OF SECURITY
POLITICAL
EXTERNALHARMONY
DOMESTICHARMONY
FUNCTIONAL
ECONOMICBASE
TECHNOLBASE
ECOLOGICAL
NATURALRESOURCES
ECOSYSTEM
SYNERGY - TRANSDIMENSIONAL RICOCHETS
Friday 11.3 NE Japan9.0 earthquake + tsunami
NE Japan10,000+ dead16,000+ missing350,000 homeless1.4 m hh no water2 m hh no power Fukushima Daiichi (240 km N Tokyo)
- 20% national electr power- 20% Tokyo electr power(Tokyo area =40% nat’l econ output)- W Jap diff electr freq = cannot backupMaj power shortages exp 3-5 months
Radiation80,000 evacuated
Destroyed Infrastructure- est cost 197-310 bn USD(excl economic losses)- 5 years to rebuild
12.3 Financial- Banking system (183 bn USD)- Value of Yen 4% up- Insurance 35bn USD (quake alone)- ATM’s crash (14 hours)
14.3 Production- hobbled to end April- 20% global electronics- cars 17.3 G7 Emerg Summit
- Global currency market
24.3 Tokyo (13m)- bottled water lack
GLOBAL CASCADES- Global supply chain shortages- Export chokes from rad fears- Global financial markets
15.3 EU- Rad adv Jap imp16.3 Volvo PB
- one week
24.3 ExportsUS, EU, Hong Kong, S;pore, Australia, CDA
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSTHREE DIMENSIONS OF SECURITY
JAPAN11.3 Fri 9.0 Earthquake off NE Japan followed by massive Tsunami
> 10,000 dead, 16,000 missing, 350,000 homeless (24.3), 2m households without power, 1.4m without water80,000 evacuated from Fukushima area, 450,000 evacuated from quake and Tsunami> Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant critically damaged (240 km N of Tokyo)> Tokyo area (40% national economic output) loses 20% electric power (W Jap diff power freq so cannot replace)> 20% national electrical power supply lost. Severe power shortages expected to last 3-5 months
13.3 Jap govt est direct infr damages 197-310 bn USD. (310 bn = 6% Jap GDP) (Libya nfz 4 mnths est 1bn USD)Does not include losses in economic activity from power shortages and impact of Fukushima radiation
Infrastructure reconstruction will take at least 5 years (power, road, rail, ports)Initially est. insurance cost of quake alone (excl tsunami and radiation) 35 bn USD (= total 2010 catastr loss)
14.3 Japan Central Bank lines up 183 bn USD to stabilise banking system.
15.3 Value of Yen spikes 4% against USD, Japanese stock market continues to sink15.3 EU advises members to check radiation levels in imports from Japan15-16.3 US stock market plunges but revives16.3 Wed Japanese ATM’s break down across Japan. All of them function again on Thursday.16.3 Japanese industry warns that power shortages and transport difficulties hobble production to end April
- Japan prod 14% global computers, consumer electronics and communications, 20% semiconductors> pushes up prices for all products globally- cars and subcomponents for other car brands
16.3 Volvo PV reports lack of deliveries from Japan will stop production in one week17.3 G7 emergency meeeting to adress Japanese economy and the global currency market17.3 Explosions continue at Fukushima24.3 Thu Tokyo (pop 13 m) running out of bottled water amid fears tap war radioactive
Milk and vegetables from NE also reported high rad levels.24.3 US, Hong Kong, S:pore, Australia, Canada restrict food imports from Japan24.3 Shipping industry reports some merchant vessels avoiding Tokyo port due to rad concerns
Global Functional Ripple Effects- Japanese production crippled (all 12 Toyota plants shut = 74m USD profits lost p/d)- Global supply chains disrupted- Japanese exports affected by fears of radioactive contamination
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
WHAT IS THE MILITARY?
CORE FUNCTION AND DERIVED UTILITY
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
CORE HIGH QUALITY VIOLENCE
1.1. MASSIVE VIOLENCE: National Defence HIC (deter, defend)Power Projection HIC (deter,enforce)
1.2. NARROW VIOLENCE: Surgical Violence SUR (hunt+kill, intercept, rescue)Supporting Violence EVA (evacuation)
1.3. RESTRAINED VIOLENCE: Global Social Engineering BOG (PSO, MASD)Policing POL (asset protection, barriers, flows)
DERIVATIVE
2.1. INFLUENCE - PSYCHOLOGICAL SPINOFFS OF MILITARY VIOLENCEDETER: Stick - threaten pain FPS + VIT (policing, show of force)COERCE: Stick - apply pain VIT (gunboat diplomacy)ATTRACT: Carrot - being useful FPS (burden sharing, high tech)
2.2. FUNCTIONAL - IMPROVISED SUPPORT FOR SOCIETYECONOMIC JAS GripenC4SIR: If civil infrastructure damaged (ATC) DEFSECURITY: If civil police overwhelmed (Hurricane Katrina)ORGANISATION + PERSONNEL: Organised labour for crises (Katrina, China quake, Oil spills)LOGISTICS: Transport & logistics for emergencies (Nokia, Gudrun)HIGH TECH: Specialised capabilities (Drug interdiction surveillance, etc.)
UNIQUE MILITARY CAPABILITY - NATO SCC 07.08
MILITARY SHOULD NOT DO THIS
- BUT IF NOTHING ELSE IS AROUND...
Katrina, Chinese Earthquake, Gudrun, Nokia +
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSCURRENT SECURITY PRIORITIES
10 %
5 %
PREMODERN SOCIETIES
MODERN STATES
GLOBALISING COMMUNITY
PREMODERN SOCIETIES
0.1 %
14 %
5 %
65 %1. SOCIAL ENGINEERING
2. COUNTER TERRORISM
3. HIC DETERRENCE
4. BARRIER OPS
5. ECOPROTECTION
6. SOCIETAL SUPPORT
7. FLOW SECURITY
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSTOMORROW’S SECURITY NEEDS
10 %
5 %
PREMODERN SOCIETIES
MODERN STATES
GLOBALISING COMMUNITY
PREMODERN SOCIETIES
0.1 %
14 %
5 %
65 %
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
GLOBAL DECAPITATION Destroying hostile transnational networksGlobal - Ongoing – Top priority, US and selected partners
BARRIERS Shielding the rich from the global poorRich/Poor fringes - Emerging - Rising need
POWER POLITICS Military confrontations between major statesAsia - Ongoing preparations – Top priority, US and Asian partners
Europe - Ignored – High priority in ten years
FLOW SECURITY Optimising and protecting our functional life systemsGlobal - Emerging – Top priority, all globalisers
ECOSECURITY Policing econorms / Defending or conquering ecoassetsGlobal - Emerging slowly - Top long-term priority
DOMESTIC SECURITY Managing internal social disruption (and decline?)Home - Emerging slowly – Potentially serious priority
SOCIAL ENGINEERING Reforming the poor worldGlobal - Phasing out – Low priority
SOCIETAL SUPPORT Assisting society deal with functional catastrophesHome - Emerging – Potentially serious priority
PMC SECURITY AGENDA 2020
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS1949 - 2012
US OUT
Global powerHard brotherEconomic crisisDomestic division
Military dominanceBut one–warFocus Asia
RUSSIA UP
Continental powerHard strangerEconomic incomeDomestic instability
Military buildupStrategic nuclearEurostrategic (Iskander+)Conventional (2012-2022
EUROPÉ DOWN
Soft powerSoft grandmotherEconomic crisisDomestic decline
Military declineStrategic
nationalEurostrategic
voidStupid
defence
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS
DECAPITATION Global Ongoing Top priority US + select
BARRIERS Rich fringe Ongoing Rising need All globalisers
INTERSTATE WAR Asia Preparations Top priority US + Asians
Europe Emerging Ignored ?
FLOW SECURITY Global Emerging Top priority All globalisers
ECOSECURITY Global Emerging ?
DOMESTIC ORDER Home Emerging Pot. serious National
SOCIETAL SUPPORT Home Emerging Pot. serious National / Regional
SOCIAL ENGINEERS Global Phasing out Low priority Regionals
PMC SECURITY AGENDA 2020
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