US Fleet Forces US Marine Corps Forces Hostile Neutral / UndecidedFriendly Level of Influence More...

US Fleet ForcesUS Fleet Forces US Marine Corps ForcesUS Marine Corps Forces

Hostile Neutral / Undecided Friendly

More

Less

Garnet

PHARM

IDPs

VEOSGOA

PIA

GOAL

Criminal Elements

Muskagee Population

Shahida Population

GOP

NGOs

GARNET

PHARM

IDPs

VEOs

PIA

Criminal Elements

Muskagee Population

Shahida Population

IGO / NGOs

US Fleet ForcesUS Fleet Forces US Marine Corps ForcesUS Marine Corps Forces 2

CENTER OF GRAVITY ANALYSIS – NEFCENTER OF GRAVITY ANALYSIS – NEF

Center of Gravity:•NEF Camps

UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL TO USA, MNFA17 Sep 2014 (Draft)

Critical Capabilities:• NEF TOC (C2 & Comms)

• Maritime Security

• Landward Security

Critical Requirements:•HN Political Support•Common Intel Picture / Operational Picture•Robust Coalition Communications Plan•Ability to Communicate/Coordinate with Higher

HQ and HN government•ISR to Understand FP Concerns and/or

Emerging Crisis

Critical Vulnerabilities:•INT’L Legitimacy of Mission•HN Public Support/Perception•HN Security•Freedom/Use of GLOC/SLOC•HN/US/Coalition Logistic Support•Breach of ROEs / Local national casualties,

caused by CF activities•Lack a deep understanding of the situation

(risk making the situation worse).

US Fleet ForcesUS Fleet Forces US Marine Corps ForcesUS Marine Corps Forces

CENTER OF GRAVITY ANALYSIS – HNCENTER OF GRAVITY ANALYSIS – HN

3UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL TO USA, MNFA17 Sep 2014 (Draft)

Center of Gravity:•AMBERLAND Govt.

Critical Vulnerabilities:•PHARM Freedom of Movement/Maneuver•Lovisa Clan Support of PHARM•GARNETIAN Support of PHARM•GLOC/SLOC Vulnerable to VEO Disruption•Commerce Vulnerable to VEO Disruption•Immature AMBERLAND Security Force •Insecure Borders (Ungoverned Space)•Clan Alliances•Public Perception Vulnerable to Deceptive

Messaging (Internal/External)

Critical Capabilities:• Rule of Law

• INT’L Legitimacy

• Freedom of Commerce

• Amberlandian Public Support

Critical Requirements:•UN Sanctions Deterring Increased Aggression•Presence of Unified INT’L Response•INT’L Political / Military Support•IGO/NGO Support•Clan Support•Ability to Communicate/Coordinate with

Coalition/IGO/NGOs•Ability to Disrupt VEO Activity•Ability to Control Public Perception•Ability to Identify/Address Clan Concerns•Ability to Identify/Address Public Concerns

US Fleet ForcesUS Fleet Forces US Marine Corps ForcesUS Marine Corps Forces

Center of Gravity:•Lovisa Clan Facilitation

403 Sep 2013 (V1)

Critical Capabilities:•Recruit Fighters•Provide Safe Haven•Gain External Support•Discredit Government of AMBERLAND (GOAL)

Critical Requirements:•Freedom of Maneuver in AMBERLAND•Provide alternate governance model•Align goals/objectives with the Lovisa Clan•Access to finance, arms and training provided by GARNET•Conduct attacks against GOAL locations & forces•Info Ops campaign to exploit actions and GOAL bias

Critical Vulnerabilities:•Exposure of lack of civil freedoms & atrocities

under PHARM rule•Interdiction of weapons and finance coming

from GARNET•Inability to enforce directives of shadow

government•Hostility of remaining 3 clans within

AMBERLAND•Delivery of effective GOAL governance &

enfranchisement of the Lovisa Clan•Western financial support/NGO activity•Perceptions of PHARM as GARNET puppet

CENTER OF GRAVITY ANALYSIS – PHARMCENTER OF GRAVITY ANALYSIS – PHARM

UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL TO USA, MNFA17 Sep 2014 (Draft)

US Fleet ForcesUS Fleet Forces US Marine Corps ForcesUS Marine Corps Forces

Hostile

Friendly

1

2

3

4

DP

LEGENDLEGEND: = NEF Decision Point

PHASE 1

PHASE 2

PHASE 0

NEF – PHASE of OPERATIONNEF – PHASE of OPERATION

COAsCOAs:-Do Nothing (Accept Risk to F/M)

- Request Augment NEF (Mitigate Risk to F/M)

- Request Change MSN (Mitigate Risk to F)- i.e. Consolidate SECFOR to protect key

ports/airfields for follow-on forces

- Request Subordinate NEF - to Adjacent CTF

- Request Redeploy NEF (Unacceptable Risk)