U.S. and South America Grain and Oilseed Weather Considerations for 2013 Mike Tannura Meteorologist,...

U.S. and South America Grain and Oilseed Weather Considerations for 2013

Mike TannuraMeteorologist, Agricultural Economist, and Owner

Transportation, Elevator, and Grain Merchants AssociationJanuary 24, 2013

Source: National Weather Service

U.S. Drought MonitorAs of Tuesday, January 15

Source: United States Geological Survey

U.S. StreamflowMonday, January 21, 2013

Source: United States Geological Survey

Upper-Mississippi StreamflowMonday, January 21, 2013

Source: United States Geological Survey

Missouri StreamflowMonday, January 21, 2013

Source: National Weather Service

• A tale of two grain belts – one very dry, one wet

PrecipitationPercent of Normal, 180-Day Period Ending Monday

U.S. Winter Wheat Production2007 - 2011 Average

Precipitation (Percent of Normal)Weighted By U.S. Crop Production

180-Day Period Ending Monday

• 68% of HRW wheat in drought, compared to only 10% of SRW wheat

Soil Moisture:Extreme Drought

Drought Normal WetExtreme Wetness

Precipitation (Percent of Average):

(0% - 50%) (50% - 75%) (75% - 125%) (125% - 200%) (200% +)

CORN 20% 36% 40% 4% 0%

SOYBEANS 15% 32% 47% 6% 0%

HRW WHEAT 27% 41% 29% 3% 0%

SRW WHEAT 0% 10% 77% 12% 0%

SPRING WHEAT 16% 36% 44% 4% 0%

Neutral Conditions Exist(Neither El Niño nor La Niña)

Neutral Conditions To ContinueThrough Summer

Data source: Climate Prediction Center

U.S. Temperature ProbabilityMarch-April-May

U.S. Precipitation ProbabilityMarch-April-May

10 Driest May-December PeriodsIn Kansas-Nebraska-Oklahoma

1895 - 2012

Data source: National Climatic Data Center

March-April Precipitation After The 10 Driest May-December PeriodsIn Kansas-Nebraska-Oklahoma

Data source: National Climatic Data Center

U.S. Winter Wheat Yield1950 - 2012

Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service

U.S. Winter Wheat Yield After The 10 Driest May-December PeriodsIn Kansas-Nebraska-Oklahoma

Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service

U.S. Corn Production2007 - 2011 Average

U.S. Soybean Production2007 - 2011 Average

Ideal Weather ForHighest U.S. Corn Yield

Ideal Weather ForHighest U.S. Soybean Yield

U.S. Corn Yield1960 - 2012

Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service

U.S. Corn Yield(Departure From Trend)

1960 - 2012

Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service

U.S. Corn Yield and Lagged September-March Precipitation*

1960 - 2012

* Precipitation in Illinois-Indiana-Iowa Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service

U.S. Soybean Yield and Lagged September-March Precipitation*

1960 - 2012

* Precipitation in Illinois-Indiana-Iowa Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service

Summary

• A large-scale and intense drought is in progress

• May-December ranked #1 driest in at least 118 years across the key winter wheat states of Kansas-Nebraska-Oklahoma

• Moderate historical support for slightly dry weather and low wheat yields during the key March-April period

• The drought neither increases nor decreases the odds for above-trend or below-trend U.S. corn and soybean yields in 2013

• Autumn and winter weather hold no predictive value for future U.S. corn and soybean yields

U.S. Earthquakes

• Do you live in the Midwest or Mississippi Delta?• Have you ever felt an earthquake?

San Francisco Earthquake

• Magnitude 7.9 on April 18, 1906

U.S. Earthquake Risk

• The risk of a major earthquake in the central U.S. “is as high as for places in California” – United States Geological Survey, 2007

Source: United States Geological Survey

Two Seismic Zones InThe Corn Belt and Delta

Halloween EarthquakeNear Cairo, Illinois

• Magnitude 6.8 on October 31, 1895

Source: United States Geological Survey

New Madrid Earthquake SequenceDecember 1811 – February 1812

• 4 earthquakes of Magnitude 7.8 – 8.1 • 8 earthquakes of at least Magnitude 7.0 (not aftershocks)• “…weeks to months…” of disruption would affect agriculture and its

transportation infrastructure if a sequence recurred today – USGS 2009

South AmericaGrains and Oilseeds

Argentina PrecipitationLast 90 Days (Ending Monday)

Argentina PrecipitationLast 30 Days (Ending Monday)

Argentina’s Recent Weather Pattern

Summary

• Argentina is drying and its corn and soybeans need rain to return

• Key corn and soybean areas of Center-West / Southeast Brazil and Bahia have been drier than average throughout most of its growing season

Summary

• A large-scale and intense drought is in progress

• May-December ranked #1 driest in at least 118 years across the key winter wheat states of Kansas-Nebraska-Oklahoma

• Moderate historical support for slightly dry weather and low wheat yields during the key March-April period

• The drought neither increases nor decreases the odds for above-trend or below-trend U.S. corn and soybean yields in 2013

• Autumn and winter weather hold no predictive value for future U.S. corn and soybean yields

• Argentina is drying and its corn and soybeans need rain to return

• Key corn and soybean areas of Center-West / Southeast Brazil and Bahia have been drier than average throughout most of its growing season

Thank You!Questions?

Mike Tannura Meteorologist, Agricultural Economist, and Owner Email: mike@tstorm.net Website: www.tstorm.net Phone: (312) 638-0993 Toll Free Phone: (866) 475-7370

980 North Michigan AvenueSuite 1400Chicago, IL 60611