UNITED STATES INTERNATIONAL TRADE …...Chinese Domestic Solar Consumption Has Expanded Cells (kW)...

cc s ECONOMIC CONSULTING SERVICES, LLC

BEFORE THE UNITED STATES INTERNATIONAL TRADE COMMISSION

IN THE MATTER OF

CRYSTALLINE SILICON PHOTOVOLTAIC CELLS AND MODULES FROM CHINA

Inv. No. 701-TA-481 & 731-TA-1190 (First Review)

EXHIBITS TO THE TESTIMONY OF

JIM DOUGAN, VICE PRESIDENT

ECONOMIC CONSULTING SERVICES, LLC

November 27, 2018

Washington, D.C.

What has changed: Chinese Domestic Solar Consumption

Has Expanded

Installations (GW)

2012 2017

China • All Other Countries (% of Global) (% of Global)

Source: Prehearing Report at IV-43

What has changed: Chinese Domestic Solar Consumption

Has Expanded

Cells (kW) Modules (kW)

• China home market • China home market shipm ents shipments

Total exports Total exports

2017 2012 2012 2017

Source: Prehearing Report at Table IV-9 and Table IV-10 2

• Other major non-

U.S. markets

China

Other Major Non- U.S. Markets Have Strong Demand Outlook

2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: UBS Global Research

PY 17 PY 18 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

-56%

-44%

1ftr ale 113

01,

1800

1600

1400

1200

Val

ue

( Mil

lio

ns

of

do

l lars

)

1000

800

600

400

200

U.S. Imports from China Have Fallen Dramatically Since 2015

Source: Prehearing Report at Table 1-10

U.S. Imports From China Would Have Been Miniscule in 2017 But for Effect of the 201

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

Val

ue

( Mill

ion

s of

do

llar

s)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 PY 17 PY 18 But for effect

of 201

Source: Prehearing Report at Table 1-10; U.S. Census Bureau Official Import Statistics for HTS Codes 8541.40.6020, 8541.40.6030, 8541.40.6015, and 8541.40.6025. Note: Adjusted import value reported in Prehearing Report at Table 1-10 not available on a monthly basis. Sept.-Dec. 2017 imports estimated by taking share of Census Bureau imports in Sept. — Dec. 2017 as percentage of whole year 2017 Census Bureau imports and applying percentage to the 2017 U.S. imports from China reported in Table 1-10.

Nonsubject Sources Represent Increasing

Share of U.S. Solar Imports

100% -

90%

80%

70%

• Nonsubject Sources

• China

10%

0%

MIN=

2015 2016

2017

2018

Source: Prehearing Report at Table IV-1

6

50%

40%

0%

China Faces Greater Barriers to U.S. Market Than Nonsubject Sources

201 Tariff 30%

China

201 Tariff

30%

A1i other sources