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UNDP RBA Workshop on MDG-Based National Development Strategies Module 2: Technical Issues UN Millennium Project February 27-March 3, 2006. Agenda. Objectives of MDG based needs assessments Overview of different costing methodologies - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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UNDP RBA Workshop on MDG-Based
National Development Strategies
Module 2: Technical Issues
UN Millennium ProjectFebruary 27-March 3, 2006
www.unmillenniumproject.org2
Agenda
Objectives of MDG based needs assessments
Overview of different costing methodologies
The MDG needs assessment approach: a practical illustration from the education sector
Process of MDG based planning
www.unmillenniumproject.org3
Motivation
MDG Needs Assessments aim to flip the question:
FROM: How close can we get to the MDGs under the current constraints?
TO: What will it take to achieve the MDGs?
www.unmillenniumproject.org4
Principles of Development Strategies that are MDG-based
Typical strategy today MDG-based development strategy
1990 2005 2008 2015 MDG MDG Base Year Target Deadline YEARYEAR
? 1990 2005 2008 2015 MDG MDG Base Year Target Deadline
MDG target
Level of MDG
progress
www.unmillenniumproject.org5
Objectives of an MDG Needs Assessment
Answer the question: “What will it take to achieve the MDGs?” Translate the MDGs into operational targets “Localize” the MDGs Develop a strategy for increasing “absorptive capacity”
Can be used as a framework for assessing needs of other relevant sectors for the country
Strengthen coherence between planning and budget processes and guide programming of expenditures
Provide a monitoring and accountability framework
Support the national policy dialogue and negotiations with development partners
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Approach to Aligning National Development Strategies with the MDGs
MDG needs assessment
through 2015
Long-term plan aligned with
the MDGs
MDG-based development
strategy
Quantify inputs needed to meet MDGs
“What” & “How Much”
Identify policies and institutions to meet needs
“How To”
Short-term 3-5 year strategy to launch 10-year strategy, including:
MTEF
Macro framework
“What needs to be done right now?”
www.unmillenniumproject.org7
What is an MDG Needs Assessment?
Who and where are the poor?– Identifying the population in need– Disaggregating the analysis
What needs to be done?– Focus on public investments (capital & operating costs)– Needs Assessment from now until 2015– Goods, services, infrastructure
How much?– Local unit costs x population in need– Human resources required to meet each MDG– Infrastructure needs
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MDG Needs Assessment Approach
1.Identify interventions
2.Specify targets for each
intervention
3.Estimate resource needs
4.Check results
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Suggested Investment Clusters
1. Rural development
2. Urban development
3. Health systems
4. Education
5. Gender equality
6. Environment
7. Science, technology and innovation
8. Cross-national infrastructure
9. Public sector management
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Agenda
Objectives of MDG based needs assessments
Overview of different costing methodologies
The MDG needs assessment approach: a practical illustration from the education sector
Process of MDG-based planning
www.unmillenniumproject.org11
Limitations of MDG Needs Assessments
Question addressed: “Which interventions are needed across sectors to achieve the
Goals, and what are the associated requirements in terms of human resources, infrastructure, and financing?”
Limitations: It is time intensive to develop detailed investment models Data needs are high Cross-sectoral dynamics cannot be modeled dynamically, but
require iterative adjustment of coverage targets Requires links to macroeconomic dynamics that need to be
modeled with the help of separate tools Does not identify complementary policies and institutional
reforms
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Comparison with ICOR-based Approaches
Question addressed: “What aggregate level of investment is needed to meet the
income poverty goal?”
Limitations compared to needs assessment: Cannot estimate human resource and infrastructure
requirements Provide no guidance to programming public expenditures Lump together public and private investments, and don’t
identify required changes in composition of investments Ignore MDG interventions that do not have a direct impact on
growth Historical ICORs and poverty elasticities apply only to marginal
changes and perform poorly in predicting growth and poverty rates
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Comparison with Approaches Based on Input-outcome Elasticities
Question addressed: “What aggregate level of investment is required to meet
individual Goals?”
Limitations compared to needs assessment: Can only model a small number of aggregate variables across
few sectors – often ignore interventions from other sectors Bound by number of variables and equations necessary to
close the models mathematically- so often do not reflect the full range of inputs needed to achieve the goals
Provide no guidance to programming public expenditures Cannot estimate human resource and infrastructure
requirements Cannot avoid double-counting of interventions across sectors Based on historical elasticities that apply only to marginal
changes
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Comparison with Approaches Based on Aggregate Unit Costs
Question addressed: “What is the gap between current expenditures and those
required to achieve each Goal?”
Limitations compared to needs assessment: Unit costs are based on current or historic expenditures, which
may be a poor guide to future expenditures Provides little guidance to programming expenditures Cannot estimate human resource and infrastructure
requirements for MDGs Typically do not differentiate between capital and operating
costs Address only a subset of interventions within a sector Cannot incorporate cross-sectoral dynamics
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Agenda
Objectives of MDG based needs assessments
Overview of different costing methodologies
The MDG needs assessment approach: a practical illustration from the education sector
Process of MDG-based planning
www.unmillenniumproject.org16
MDG Needs Assessment Approach
1.Identify interventions
2.Specify targets for each
intervention
3.Estimate resource needs
4.Check results
www.unmillenniumproject.org17
Education Needs Assessment Approach (1)
Country demographic data
Capital and recurrent costs per student
TOTAL COSTS
Students reached by interventionsTarget coverage rates for:
•Primary Education•Secondary Education •Adult Literacy
Cost components for key interventions
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Education Needs Assessment Approach (2)
Direct and indirect
financial costs _
Estimation of teachers needed
Estimation of classrooms
needed
Capacity Requirements
_ _
= Total Education Needs
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Key Assumptions for Education Needs Assessment
Interventions: Comprehensive set of interventions to achieve primary education, secondary education and literacy
Targets: Coverage targets should aim at meeting MDGs for entire population
Investment model: Service delivery models should reflect local needs and education structure; unit costs should reflect costs for reaching hard-to-reach populations.
Financing: User fees should be eliminated for primary education
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Interventions Needed to Meet Universal Primary Education (UPE) Goal
1. Direct Primary Education interventions: infrastructure, human resources, learning materials, demand side interventions, etc
2. Secondary Education interventions because:
For marginalized groups, post-primary education is needed to realize sufficient returns on education
Availability of secondary education increases parents’ incentive to send children to primary school
Secondary school graduates are needed to meet supply of primary school teachers
3. Adult literacy programs
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Primary School Interventions (1/2)
Category Intervention Target by 2015Classrooms 1 per 40 childrenToilets 1 per classroom, separate for boys and girlsFurniture 1 blackboard per classroom, 1 desk and chair per
studentTeacher housing Where appropriate, as an incentive to retain teachers
Transportation facilities School buses where needed*Other Construction Administrative facilities*Number of teachers (with emphasis on female teachers)
1 teacher for 40 students
Salaries Raised to 3.5*GDP per capitaTraining Pre-service and in-service training for all teachersNon-teaching staff Administrators, supervisors, trainers, as needed*
Infrastructure
Human resources
* Not included in MP preliminary cost estimates
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Primary School Interventions (2/2)
* Not included in preliminary cost estimates
Category Intervention TargetSchool fees Abolition of school fees for Primary EducationSubsidies for girls 50 percent of girls by 2015School meals and/or take home rations
50 percent of children by 2015
Other subsidy schemes such as Conditional Cash Transfers
As appropriate, for specific excluded groups*
Uniforms, textbooks and other learning material
1 set per student by 2015
Pedagogical and curriculum reform
As identified by local experts
Improvement in capacity at the Ministry and local level
In line with growing size of school system*
Empowerment of local communities
Needed to participate effectively in school-level decisions*
Monitoring, evaluation and data collection
As needed to track progress towards the targets*
Demand-side interventions
Other interventions
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Primary Education Targets
For primary education the net enrolment rate and primary completion rate to reach 100 percent, gross enrolment rate to reach 107 percent by 2015
The gender parity target in primary education was to be achieved in 2005
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Post-Primary Interventions and Targets
Category Target by 2015 Intervention CategoriesTransition rate of 80 percent Infrastructure (classrooms, toilets, furniture,
teacher housing, transportation, libraries, sports facilities, laboratories)Human resources (teachers, non teaching staff)Demand side interventions (abolition of school meals, subsidies for girls, school meals and/or take home rations, uniforms, textbooks, other learning materials, other subsidy schemes)
Other interventions (curriculum reform, management, monitoring and oversight, capacity enhancement at Ministerial level)
Adult Literacy 100 percent literacy rates Adult literacy programs (human resources, learning material etc.)
Secondary Education
www.unmillenniumproject.org25
Estimating Resource Needs: Education Needs Assessment Tool
The Education Needs Assessment Tool allows users to translate intervention and target choices into quantitative estimates of financial and human resource needs
www.unmillenniumproject.org26
Key Drivers of Cost and Variation
The key drivers of cost and variation in a comprehensive country-wide needs assessment are:
Differences in population in need
Differences in choice of interventions
Differences in income levels
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Guiding Principles of MDG Needs Assessments
“Absorptive capacity” constraints are real in the short term, but can be gradually relaxed through investments in human resources, infrastructure and management systems
Identify all interventions that require full or partial public financing
Include capital and operating costs for all sectors
Undertake total, not incremental costing
Strive for maximum disaggregation
Ensure maximum transparency so that assumptions can be adapted to countries’ needs. No “one-size-fits all”!
Periodic revision of targets/interventions based on new information and implementation of programs
www.unmillenniumproject.org28
Agenda
Objectives of MDG based needs assessments
Overview of different costing methodologies
The MDG needs assessment approach: a practical illustration from the education sector
Process of MDG-based planning
www.unmillenniumproject.org29
Process of Making National Development Strategies MDG-based
High-level political commitment
Nationally-owned
Integrated into on-going processes
MDGs as outcome indicators
Inclusive with participation from key actors
Transparent
Regularly reviewed
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Illustrative Organizational Structure
Office of the President/Prime Minister/Ministry of Planning and Finance
MDG Strategy Group(led by Ministry of Finance or Planning, participation from line ministries, representation
from UNCT)
Thematic Working Groups(led by line ministries, including civil society, donors and UNCT, among others, covering
different investment clusters such as rural and urban development, health, education, gender equality, environment, science and technology)
www.unmillenniumproject.org31
Example: the Process in Ethiopia
Process– Existing PRSP technical teams brought into process– UN Agencies supported analysts in each sector– UNDP coordinated with WB/UNCT together with the
Government
Milestones– MDG needs assessment launched in August 2004– MDG sector needs assessment drafts ready by
November 2005– Stakeholder workshop and consultations– Macroeconomic framework and synthesis work with
support of World Bank– Draft PASDEP ready by December 2005
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