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Trends in Diversity: A National Perspective. Bryan J. Cook Director Center for Policy Analysis American Council on Education. “ By 2020, America will once again have the highest proportion of college graduates in the world.” President Barak Obama. 2007 Degree Attainment (ages 25 to 34). - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Trends in Diversity:A National Perspective
Trends in Diversity:A National Perspective
Bryan J. Cook
Director
Center for Policy Analysis
American Council on Education
2
“By 2020, America will once again have the highest proportion of college graduates in the world.”
– President Barak Obama
3
2007 Degree Attainment (ages 25 to 34)2007 Degree Attainment (ages 25 to 34)
Current US Degree Attainment
Top OECD Country
37% 55%
4
The Problem: 2007 Degree Attainment (ages 25 to 34)
The Problem: 2007 Degree Attainment (ages 25 to 34)
Degree Attainment
+
US citizens with some college, no
degree=
US Degree Attainment
37% 21% 58%
5
Optimistic Scenario: Estimated 2020 Degree Attainment (ages 25 to 34)
Optimistic Scenario: Estimated 2020 Degree Attainment (ages 25 to 34)
US citizens with some college, no
degree earn degree
+
Maintain 2007 Degree
Attainment
=
US Attainment
12.6% 37% 49.6%
6
Optimistic Scenario: Estimated 2020 Degree Attainment (ages 25 to 34)
Optimistic Scenario: Estimated 2020 Degree Attainment (ages 25 to 34)
US citizens with some college, no
degree earn degree
+
Maintain 2007 Degree
Attainment
=
US Attainment Estimated Top OECD Country
12.6% 37% 49.6% 60%
10.4% gap remains between U.S. Attainment and conservative estimate of top OECD Country
7
The Problem: Definition of Degree Attainment
The Problem: Definition of Degree Attainment
Number of Americans that hold
a college degree
=Degree Attainment
Total American population
8
The Problem: Degree attainment and Population Change (age 25 to 34)
The Problem: Degree attainment and Population Change (age 25 to 34)
Race Percent with college degree in 2007
Increase in population by 2020
Hispanic 20% 30%
Black 28% 23%
White 47% 8%
Asian 73% 15%
9
Percent Population Age 25-34 with a Least an AA Degree 2005
Percent Population Age 25-34 with a Least an AA Degree 2005
45%
28%18%
70%
42%
20% 23%
90%
White AfricanAmerican
Hispanic Asian
US MI
10
Michigan Population Projections by Race, 2025
Michigan Population Projections by Race, 2025
0%
15%
49%
53%
Asian
Hispanic
African American
White
11
A National PortraitA National Portrait
12
Distribution of Population by Race, 2008
Distribution of Population by Race, 2008
66
12 15
4 1
77
14
4 2 10
20
40
60
80
White Black Hispanic Asian NativeAmericans
US Michigan
13
Distribution of 18 to 34 Year Old Population by Race, 2008
Distribution of 18 to 34 Year Old Population by Race, 2008
60
1319
51 2
74
15
5 3 1 20
20
40
60
80
White Black Hispanic Asian NativeAmericans
Other
US
Michigan
14
Distribution of Midwest 18-34 Population by Race, 2008
Distribution of Midwest 18-34 Population by Race, 2008
74
15
5 3 1 2
74
129
30 1
0
20
40
60
80
White Black Hispanic Asian NativeAmericans
Other
Michigan Midwest
15
High School 4yr Graduation Rates (2003)
High School 4yr Graduation Rates (2003)
76%
52%56%
77%
47%
White AfricanAmerican
Hispanic Asian NativeAmerican
US
16
High School 4yr Graduation RatesHigh School 4yr Graduation Rates
76%
52%56%
77%
47%
23%
67%
35%32%
75%
White AfricanAmerican
Hispanic Asian NativeAmerican
US
MI
17
High School Completion Rates for 18-24 year old population 1986-2006
High School Completion Rates for 18-24 year old population 1986-2006
86.983.1
76.576.5
68
59.9
50
60
70
80
90
'86
'88
'90
'92
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
White African American Hispanic
18
Immediate College Enrollment Rates for 18-24 year old population 1986-2006
Immediate College Enrollment Rates for 18-24 year old population 1986-2006
44.2
28.6 32.4
22.225.4
18.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
'86
'88
'90
'92
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
White African American Hispanic
19
United States 18-34 Year Old Population by Race, 2008
United States 18-34 Year Old Population by Race, 2008
60
1319
51 2
60
12 116
17
0
20
40
60
80
White Black Hispanic Asian NA Unknown
US 18-34 population (2008)
US Undergraduate Population (2007)
20
Michigan 18 to 34 Year Old Population by Race, 2008
Michigan 18 to 34 Year Old Population by Race, 2008
74
15
5 3 1 2
71
13
3 3 18
0
20
40
60
80
White Black Hispanic Asian NativeAmericans
Other/RaceUnknown
Michigan Population (2008)
Michigan College Population (2007)
21
Midwestern 18 to 34 Year Old Population by Race
Midwestern 18 to 34 Year Old Population by Race
74
129
30 1
71
115 4
06
White Black Hispanic Asian NA Unknown
Midwest population (2008)
Midwest undergraduate population (2007)
22
Four Year Enrollment 1996-2006Four Year Enrollment 1996-2006
11.8
52.9
1,500,000
2,500,000
3,500,000
4,500,000
5,500,000
6,500,000
'96 '98 '01 '04 '05 '06
White Minority
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Distribution of Race at Four Year Schools, 1996 and 2006
Distribution of Race at Four Year Schools, 1996 and 2006
Race 1996 2006
White 71% 62%
African American 10% 11%
Hispanic 6% 8%
Asian 5% 6%
American Indian 1% 1%
Foreign 4% 4%
Race Unknown 4% 8%
24
Michigan Four-Year Enrollment 1996-2006
Michigan Four-Year Enrollment 1996-2006
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
1996 2006
White
Minority
White % Change = 15%Minority % Change = 42%
25
Distribution of Race at Michigan Four Year Schools, 1996 and 2006
Distribution of Race at Michigan Four Year Schools, 1996 and 2006
Race 1996 2006
White 76% 71%
African American 10% 11%
Hispanic 2% 3%
Asian 3% 4%
American Indian 1% 1%
Foreign 5% 5%
Race Unknown 3% 6%
26
Two Year Enrollment 1996-2006Two Year Enrollment 1996-2006
5.6
44.6
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
'96 '98 '01 '04 '05 '06
White Minority
27
Distribution of Race at Two Year Schools, 1996 and 2006
Distribution of Race at Two Year Schools, 1996 and 2006
Race 1996 2006
White 65% 57%
African American 11% 13%
Hispanic 11% 15%
Asian 6% 6%
American Indian 1% 1%
Foreign 2% 1%
Race Unknown 4% 6%
28
Michigan Two-Year Enrollment 1996-2006
Michigan Two-Year Enrollment 1996-2006
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
1996 2006
White
Minority
White % Change = -2%Minority % Change = 45%
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Distribution of Race at Michigan Two Year Schools, 1996 and 2006
Distribution of Race at Michigan Two Year Schools, 1996 and 2006
Race 1996 2006
White 79% 69%
African American 11% 15%
Hispanic 2% 3%
Asian 2% 2%
American Indian 1% 1%
Foreign 1% 2%
Race Unknown 4% 9%
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Graduation RatesGraduation Rates
31
Public 4-year Graduation Rates 2007Public 4-year Graduation Rates 2007
56%
36%
50%
71%
41%37%
64%
46%
40%
57%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
White AfricanAmerican
Hispanic Asian AmericanIndian
US
MI
32
Public 2-year Graduation Rates 2007Public 2-year Graduation Rates 2007
29%
16%
22%
28%24%
35%
50%
33%31%
43%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
White AfricanAmerican
Hispanic Asian AmericanIndian
US
MI
33
Gender EquityGender Equity
34
Percentage of Undergraduates Aged 24 or Younger Who Are Male
Percentage of Undergraduates Aged 24 or Younger Who Are Male
Percentage of College Students by Gender1995 2007
All U.S. Men 48% 46%
African American Men 37% 41%
American Indian Men 45% 49%
Asian American Men 54% 49%
Hispanic Men 45% 42%
White Men 44.8% 43.6%
35
Percent of Undergraduates Who Are Male by Race and Income, 2007
Percent of Undergraduates Who Are Male by Race and Income, 2007
Low Income Middle Income
High Income
White 44% 48% 51%
African American
42% 45% 48%
Hispanic 42% 44% 48%
Asian 45% 53% 52%
36
New Reporting Requirements for Race/Ethnicity
New Reporting Requirements for Race/Ethnicity
37
Old Reporting Categories New Reporting Categories
White, non Hispanic White
Black, non Hispanic Black
Hispanic Hispanic (of any race)
Asian/Pacific Islander Asian
American Indian/Alaskan Native American Indian or Alaska Native
Race Unknown Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander
Non Resident Alien Race Unknown
Non Resident Alien
Two or more races
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OverviewOverview
• Educational Attainment major goal
• HS graduation rates are bad
• Growing diversity, especially at two year schools)
• Gender Equity: income important
• New R/E reporting requirements will impact racial diversity trend data.
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