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Transport Planning Society
Transport and Climate Change – facing the carbon emissions challenge
David Quarmby CBE25 April 2007
Transport and Climate ChangeFacing the Carbon Emissions Challenge
Setting the Scene Transport and carbon emissions - the challenge Issues to address
Sectoral reduction targets Transport efficiency measures Transport behavioural change Government and public attitudes?
Conclusions so far
Setting the scene
A fast moving scenario UK Climate Change Programme – March 2006 HoC Environmental Audit Committee – July 2006 Stern Report – September 2006 and forthcoming
government response Mini-Budget put up APD but nothing else – Nov 06 Eddington backs full environmental pricing – Dec 06 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
First report Jan 07 – on temperature change Second report Mar 07 – on impacts
Climate Change Bill published – Mar 07 Budget increases fuel duty, steepens VED Transport Sec Douglas Alexander major speech – Mar 07
Setting the scene
The basic proposition about climate change IPCC2: huge impacts in developing world “Adaptation take precedence over CO2 reduction”? Stern:
could shrink global economies by 20%, losses of £3.5 trillion
If appropriate action now, could cost 1% of global GDP Kyoto – reduce greenhouse gas emissions by
12.5% below 1990 by 2012 (exc aviation & shipping)
Focus on CO2 emissions, 85% of greenhouse gas
Setting the scene
UK is committed to CO2 reduction of 20% below 1990 levels by 2010 60% reduction by 2050; Climate Change Bill
enshrines in law
Reduction from 161.5 MtC to 129 MtC by 2010 65 MtC by 2050
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2029
2032
2035
2038
2041
2044
2047
2050
Year
Em
iss
ion
s in
mill
ion
to
nn
es
of
ca
rbo
n (
MtC
)
Greenhouse gasesCarbon Dioxide (CO2) emissionsKyoto target by 2008-2012PSA CO2 targetRCEP CO2 target 2050
Eleanor McKay – TPS Bursary Presentation – 18 April 2007
Setting the scene
1990 reference level of 161.5 MtC By 2000, already down to 150 MtC – but Stuck there - by 2006, risen again to 153
MtC (highest since 1997)
The UK’s targets are very ambitious
Government has willed the ends, but said nothing about the means
UK performance can be profoundly affected by marginal change in one sector
Setting the scene
Why bother – UK less than 3% of global emissions Four reasons to bother and act
There is no silver bullet – every little helps Would have no moral authority to persuade others Global business opportunities for the UK in products
and services relating to carbon reduction, energy efficiency and emissions trading systems
UK: a low carbon economy increasingly competitive
But must stay closely in step with EU to guard UK competitive position
Transport and Climate ChangeFacing the Carbon Emissions Challenge
Setting the Scene Transport and carbon emissions - the challenge Issues to address
Sectoral reduction targets Transport efficiency measures Transport behavioural change Government and public attitudes?
Conclusions so far
Transport and Carbon Emissions
UK transport carbon emissions rising from 1990 Road transport +10% to 2005 Aviation (domestic and UK international) doubled to
2004; UK international aviation excluded from table:
Year 1990 2000 2006 2015 2030
Transport CO2 emissions MtC
39 41 44 47 52
24% 27% 29% 31% 32% Transport %of all CO2 emissions
The forecasts are DfT; EU forecasts are higher for UK
Transport and Carbon Emissions
Emissions from cars stable – improved fuel efficiency offset growth in car ownership and use
Emissions from road freight vehicles rising – growth in numbers, little fuel efficiency impacts
Emissions from aviation growing the fastest, international and domestic
Transport and Carbon Emissions
Year 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
UK Aviation
CO2 emissions
5 MtC 9 MtC 11 MtC 15 MtC
17.5MtC*
18 MtC
21.5 MtC*
% all UK
CO2 ems2.8% 5.8% 7.3% 10.0% 12.0%
UK aviation = domestic + international departures Source DTI White Paper; *Tyndall Centre Effect of radiative forcing means climate change impact of
aviation CO2 emissions is at least doubled
Transport and Climate ChangeFacing the Carbon Emissions Challenge
Setting the Scene Transport and carbon emissions - the challenge Issues to address
Sectoral reduction targets Transport efficiency measures Transport behavioural change Government and public attitudes?
Conclusions so far
Issues to address
How to allocate reductions between sectors – what trajectory?
What transport efficiency measures What transport behaviour change? how to
evaluate and prioritise? Government and public attitudes
Reductions between sectors
Counter-productive to allocate long term targets between sectors?
Analysing trade-offs, financial-economic-social costs with each measure and its reduction value
Cost minimising trajectory Assemble ‘best package’ of measures
Reductions between sectors
40% of CO2 emissions directly influenced by individuals on a day-to-day basis
Is the government doing any analysis of tradeoffs?
Issues to address
How to allocate reductions between sectors – what trajectory?
What transport efficiency measures What transport behaviour change? how to
evaluate and prioritise? Government and public attitudes
Transport - efficiencies
Reduction of emissions with no change in transport output
New cars 10% more fuel efficient 2004 vs 1997
EU had target of 120 g/km average for new cars by 2012
EU now legislated at 130 g/km Currently new cars averaging 161 g/km
(European) and 169 g/km (Asian)
Transport - efficiencies How to deliver
Much higher proportion of diesel cars Increased offer and take up of hybrid cars Reduction of average car size and weight
UK: company car tax scheme since 2002 successfully incentivised change
UK: graduated VED is ineffective Low Carbon Vehicle partnership King/Stern study
How, when to reach 100 g/km Decarbonise cars by 2025
Transport - efficiencies
Fastest rising source of surface transport carbon emissions is road freight and light vans
Light vans subject to same graduated VED HGV VED - no fuel efficiency or carbon
incentives beyond EURO IV and EURO V requirements
London LEZ will force fleet renewal or retrofitting
Hybrid engines offer leap in efficiency
Transport - efficiencies
Hybrid powertrain – primary source (petrol or diesel, in future fuel cell?) + energy capture, storage and release (electricity or
flywheel)
Productionised is petrol-electric (cars) and diesel-electric (buses and large goods vehicles)
Cars: Toyota Prius, Honda Civic, Lexus deliver 30-50% improvement in fuel efficiency and reduction in CO2 emissions
Hybrid powertrain
Engine Generator Battery |Motor-|transmission
>>>> >>>>>><<<<<<
=====
Series
Parallel
Engine Generator-Motor======== Transmission======
Battery
>>
>>
>> <
<<
<<
<
Transport - efficiencies Hybrid bus
Wright – series powertrain, adds 60% to cost of standard diesel bus; less when productionised
Volvo – parallel powertrain – ISAM (Integrated Starter, Alternator and Motor): working to 25-35% premium including batteries and control systems
Both claim ~ 35% reduction in fuel consumption and carbon emissions
Volvo also offering ISAM powertrain for trucks Hybrid only hope for big reductions in truck
emissions
Volvo ISAM Parallel hybrid
Transport - efficiencies Rail – CO2 emissions one-third of car per pass-km Rail rolling stock energy consumption has
increased in last 15 years Rail getting the message? Eurostar ‘Tread Lightly’ initiative Opportunities in railway practices
Transport - efficiencies Aviation
New aircraft today 70% more fuel efficient than 40 years ago, 20% better than 10 years ago
Further improvements of 20% by 2015 and 40-50% by 2050 Includes 10% due to ATM operational efficiencies
Typical shorthaul flight releases 170 g/km per passenger in carbon emissions comparable to larger cars – but greenhouse gas effect times 2+
Problem is emissions per hour, not per km Aviation ‘problem’ is also the rapid forecast growth
Issues to address
How to allocate reductions between sectors – what trajectory?
What transport efficiency measures What transport behaviour change? how to
evaluate and prioritise? Government and public attitudes
Transport – behaviour change
Efficiency improvements necessary and welcome, but major behaviour change essential to reach reduction targets
Modest reduction by voluntary action by individuals and firms
Wide range of measures to influence modes of travel, total amount of travel and the use of less carbon-emitting modes
Transport – behaviour change
Smarter travel Public transport improvements Urban form and land use changes ICT developments Fuel taxes Road pricing Aviation taxes Aviation in emission trading scheme
Transport – behaviour change
Smarter travel – soft measures to influence modal choice Workplace and school travel plans, travel demand
management, individualised marketing Car clubs and car sharing Making cycling easier and safer Necessary to complement harder measures such as
taxation
Transport – behaviour change
Public transport improvements Bus and rail improvements can influence modal
choice – services/network, marketing, ticketing, realtime information, attractiveness and acceptability
Investment and planning Difficult with deregulated bus regime in GB outside
London Bus and rail also need to improve their energy
efficiency
Transport – behaviour change
Urban form and land-use changes Achieving greater concentration and less car-
dependence in towns and cities Will have major impacts over longer period of time
Transport – behaviour change
ICT developments Already ‘working at home’ one or two days a week
significant for many employees, using broadband connections
Small businesses in ICT-related sectors increasingly based at home or very close to home
More video conferencing Limited long term effect – some face-to-face contact
will be necessary for many; loss of water-cooler community?
Transport – behaviour change
Road Fuel taxes Probably inevitable in the short medium term – easy
to administer. Known effects to deter travel Government still smarting from September 2000 fuel
tax ‘revolt’ Likely that only limited increases will be acceptable
in the short term
Transport – behaviour change
Road pricing Serious consideration by government and some local
authorities; recognise no long term alternative to combating traffic congestion
Technology interesting but not an issue – tag and beacon or GPS
My view – could have universal road pricing within 15 years – but current public acceptability issues?
Provides platform for incentivising use of lower emission vehicles, travel by lower emission modes, and in circumstances when vehicles emit less CO2
Transport – behaviour change
Aviation taxes Demand for air travel forecast to grow fastest, and
carbon emissions with it On grounds of fairness, substantial changes in the
tax regime inevitable 85% of air travel is ‘tourism’ – holidays, visiting
friends and relatives, and business ‘tourism’ – conferences, conventions and exhibitions
Evidence suggests high price elasticity – 10% increase in fares > 5-15% reduction in travel
Impacts depend on whether in step with EU or not
Transport – behaviour change
Aviation emissions trading EU-ETS – probably a necessary step to bring
aviation into some form of carbon emissions rationing and trading
Where are the starting allowances set? Demand for air travel comes from the consumer
market – market responds to price changes Effect will depend on tightness of allowances, the
trading price of carbon units and how it works through into fares
May not have much impact in short-medium term
VIBAT study
Two ‘images’ of the UK ‘new market economy’ – focus on
technological and efficiency changes ‘smart social policy’ – behaviour change plays
a more central role: some reduction in car trips but length reduced
Packages of policy measures to correspond with the scenarios
Evaluated for reduction impact and deliverability
VIBAT study
Conclusions The 60% reduction cannot be delivered in the
‘New Market Economy’ scenario Could be delivered with ‘Smart Social Policy’
scenario, providing major behaviour change occurs, and technological innovations assumed
Issues to address
How to allocate reductions between sectors – what trajectory?
What transport efficiency measures What transport behaviour change? how to
evaluate and prioritise? Government and public attitudes
Where is the government? 2000 UK CCP measures
Company car tax reform Graduated VED Fuel duty escalator (short lived!)
Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation > 5% of UK fuel sales by 2010
Where is the government? 2006 UK CCP
Improving vehicle fuel efficiency Support new vehicle technologies (LowCVP) Use vehicle taxation > lower carbon Behaviour change – public transport, travel demand
management
HoC EAC critical of its lack of ambition and its low forecasts of impacts
Where is the government? More radical measures under discussion, in
media and within government Douglas Alexander IPPR speech Focus on technical measures to improve vehicle
fuel efficiency – target of 100 g/km Something on behaviour change as well A hotch potch approach – no framework
illustrating progress towards targets Need to be able to evaluate alternative
measures
Public attitudes
Jillian Anable research (for DfT) Link is weak between awareness of climate
change and travel behaviour implications Similar to IPPR report on road pricing Travel behaviour change more successful if
targeted at community level
London Mayor to introduce higher congestion charge (£25?) for high emissions cars (225+)
LB Richmond similar:onstreet park permits
Reducing Carbon Emissions: changing travel behaviour
Personal carbon allowances and trading System of personal carbon allowances for every
adult – in units Carbon units are ‘spent’ every time fuel for a vehicle
is purchased, public transport is used and a flight is purchased - and a household energy bill is paid
Unused carbon units sold on a simple universal market (through bank or post office) and those needing more units buy them
Reducing Carbon Emissions: changing travel behaviour
Personal carbon allowances and trading Complex to comprehend and accept, though
straightforward to operate through analogues of today’s cash and card payment systems
In my view the fairest and most effective way to incentivise low carbon travel behaviour
Research at Leeds University suggests more effective at changing behaviour and much more acceptable than fuel tax increases
Transport and Climate ChangeFacing the Carbon Emissions Challenge
Setting the Scene Transport and carbon emissions - the challenge Issues to address
Sectoral reduction targets Transport efficiency measures Transport behavioural change Government and public attitudes?
Conclusions so far
Conclusions so far UK committed to ambitious programme of
carbon emissions reduction Government not yet allocated targets > sectors Transport energy efficiency improvements
welcome and necessary, but not sufficient Transport behaviour change essential element:
smarter travel, taxation for surface and aviation, will involve major lifestyle changes
Aviation still the elephant in the room…. Personal carbon allowances and trading may be
the only ‘fair’ way to reach the ambitious targets Role for transport planners?
Transport Planning Society
Transport and Climate Change – facing the carbon emissions challenge
David Quarmby CBE25 April 2007
Issues to address
How to allocate reductions between sectors – what trajectory?
What transport efficiency measures What transport behaviour change? how to
evaluate and prioritise? Government and public attitudes
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