Threat Evaluation & Weapon Assignment Centre of Excellence JH van Vuuren 4 December 2009...

Threat Evaluation & Weapon Assignment Centre of Excellence

JH van Vuuren

4 December 20094 December 2009

STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITYSTELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY

LEDGER Conference 2009, Innovation Hub, Pretoria, 3-4 December 2009LEDGER Conference 2009, Innovation Hub, Pretoria, 3-4 December 2009

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OVERVIEW

• Context of Work• What is TEWA Decision Support?• Collaborators in Industry• Past & Current Activities• Activities in the Near Future• Medium Term Objectives

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Context of Work (GBAD)

Targets

RadarSensors

Weapon Systems

HQ

Assets

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What is TEWA?

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Collaborators

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Centre of Excellence

TFDC

UDDC

MilitaryAcademy

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Past Activities: Two 4th Year Projects

• Design of a weapon assignment system

– Francois du Toit– Completed October 2006

• The assignment problem– Grant van Dieman– Completed October 2006

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Francois du Toit Grant van Dieman

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Past Activities: Masters Project 1

• Real-time TE of Fixed Wing Aircraft in the GBAD environment

– Jaco Roux– Completed April 2006

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Past Activities: Masters Project 2

• Measuring the Threat Value of Fixed Wing Aircraft in a Ground Based Air Defence Environment

– Andries Heyns– Completed March 2008

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Past Activities: Masters Project 3

• Real-time Weapon Assignment in a Ground Based Air Defence Environment

– Cobus Potgieter– Completed March 2008

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Past Activities: Masters Project 4

• The Dynamic Weapon Target Assignment Problem in a Ground Based Air Defence Environment

– Francois du Toit– Completed March 2009

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Past Activities: Masters Project 5

• Modeling Rigid Body Kinematics with Splines

– Jacques du Toit– Completed March 2009

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Past Activities: Contract Research

[1] Roux JN & van Vuuren JH, 2007, Threat evaluation and weapon assignment decision support: A review of the state of the art, ORiON, 23(2), pp. 151-187.

[2] Roux JN & van Vuuren JH, 2008, Real-time threat evaluation in a ground based air defence environment, ORiON, 24(1), pp. 75-101.

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Past Activities: Conference Papers

• ORSSA 2004 (1 presentation)• ORSSA 2005 (5 presentations)• LEDGER 2005 (1 presentation)• LEDGER 2006 (4 presentations)• ORSSA 2007 (8 presentations)• LEDGER 2007 (4 presentations)• IFORS 2008 (5 presentations)• LEDGER 2008 (1 presentation)• ORSSA 2009 (2 presentations)

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Past Activities: Workshops I

• Attack Technique Workshops– TFDC/OTB Workshop (2006)

• Presented TEWA work• Lecture Lance Wellington• Obtained flight profile data

– US Workshop I (2007)• Presented TEWA work• Presentations by Jan Durandt• Sensitizing of flight profile data

– Langebaanweg Workshop (2007)• Introduction to simulator• Informal discussion pilot

– US Workshop II (2008)• Lecture John Erasmus

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TFDC

MilitaryAcademy

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Past Activities: Workshops II

• Asset Assessment Workshops– RRS Workshop (2006)– UDDC Workshop (2006)

• Scenario Workshops– RRS Workshops (2005-2008)– DPSS Workshops (2006-2008)– UDDC Workshops (2008)

• Operator in the Loop Workshops– IMT/Ergotec Workshop (2008)

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UDDC

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Current Activities: Masters Project 6

• Solution methodologies for the classical assignment problem

– Grant van Dieman

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Current Activities: Masters Project 8

• Aircraft Membership Estimation in a Ground Based Air Defense Environment

– Willa Lotz

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Current Activities: Masters Project 9

• Evaluation of a fully fledged TEWA system in a GBADS environment

– Basie Kok– Submitted November 2009

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Current Activities: PhD Project 1

• Design of a TE Subsystem– Jaco Roux– Submitted November 2009

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Evaluation of Conceptual TEWA System

• xxx

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Evaluation of Conceptual TEWA System

• xxx

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Evaluation of Conceptual TEWA System

• Aircraft 1 (turquoise) attacks Asset 1 (bridge) at time 125 seconds– Its threat values start to rise sharply just before 100 seconds

• Aircraft 2 (blue) attacks Asset 2 (airfield) at time 78 seconds– Its threat values are high and climb further just before 70 seconds

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Future Activities: Masters Project 10

• The incorporation of utility functions into the objective function of a weapon assignment problem

– Objective is to be able to model various modes in which weapon assignment may take place (such as deterrence or attrition, for example) by means of utility functions

– Danie Lötter (to Commence 2010)

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Future Activities: Masters Project 11

• Network threat evaluation and resource assignment

– Assign the minimum number of resources required to protect a network whose nodes model military infrastructure components and whose edges model line of sight, or access possibility

– Bernard Schlünz (to Commence 2010)

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Future Activities: PhD Project 2

• Coastal threat evaluation decision support by means of pattern recognition and pattern mining

– Description: Management, filtering, classification and evaluation of intelligence data.

– Jacques du Toit (Commenced January 2009)

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Future Graduate Research Topics

• Topic: Design of a resource assignment decision support system in a law enforcement environment

– Description: Implementation of a decision support system to aid the law enforcement authorities with the assignment of resources.

– Related honours studies: (hopefully one of the Honours students will enroll for the Masters programme)

• Topic: Design of a resource assignment system on ADA regiment level

– Description: Utility and assignment theory are used to design a decision support system for operators on ADA regiment level.

– Related honours studies: (hopefully related Honours student will enroll for the Masters programme)

• Topic: Design of a weapon assignment system in the GBAD environment

– Description: A decision support system is designed to propose possible engagement between threats and effectors in real-time.

– Related masters studies

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Other Future Activities (2010-2012)

• Contract Research & Interest Development Projects– Further build Centre of Excellence

• Research Material – Postgraduate laboratory containing 12 PCs– Maintain and update equipment

• Workshops– Workshops with various military partners– Workshops with various industry partners

• Conferences– LEDGER 2010-2012– ORSSA 2010-2012– IFORS 2011

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Medium Term Objectives

• Long term planning, 4 years, to ensure the sustainability of the centre of excellence

• Main objective to develop the first South African TEWA concept demonstrator for future GBADS phases (Ph2+) – in collaboration with Reutech Radar Systems

• Secondary objectives to develop or support development of DSSs:– TEWA on higher levels of ADA– TEWA or TERA in the JAD environment– TE DSS during Operations Other Than War (OOTW)

• Large Events• Peace Keeping

– Task force assignment of SAP– TE DS for coastal surveillance