Thinking Strategies

+Thinking Strategies

+Thinking Strategies

ReasoningThe process by which we generate

arguments, evaluate them, and reach conclusionsFormal Reasoning Informal Reasoning

+Formal/Logical Reasoning

The Mental procedures that yield a valid conclusionAlgorithms are

systematic methods that always reach a correct result if correctly applied.

y + z = r2

+Informal Reasoning

People tend to use heuristics, or mental shortcuts, rather than algorithmsDo not always yield a correct solution

+The Anchoring Heuristic

The Anchoring Heuristic, also know as focalism, refers to the human tendency to accept and rely on, the first piece of information received before making a decision. That first piece of

information is the anchor and sets the tone for everything that follows. 

Ex: A car dealer might suggest a price for a car and the customer will try to negotiate down from that price, even if the price suggested is more than the Blue Book Value.

+The Representative Heuristic

The Representative Heuristic occurs when people decide whether an example belongs in a certain class on the basis of how similar it is to other items in that class

Ex: Chen attends a school where the average GPA is around a 3.0. Chen pushes himself to do well academically in addition to participating in a variety of activities, including: Chess club, Asian-American Club, Debate Club, and Latin Club. He is also the treasurer of the National Honor Society.What do you think is Chen’s GPA?

+Representative Heuristic

Another Example:Sarah loves to listen to New Age music and

faithfully reads her horoscope each day. In her spare time, she enjoys aromatherapy and attending a local spirituality group.

Based on the information above, is Sarah more likely to be a teacher, or a holistic healer?

+Pros and Cons of Representative Heuristics

Making judgments based upon representativeness is intended to work as a type of mental shortcut, allowing us to make decisions quickly. However, it can also lead to errors. When we make decisions based on

representativeness, we may be likely to make more errors and more likely to overestimate the likelihood that something will occur. Just because an event or object is representative

does not mean that it is more likely to occur.

+The Availability HeuristicThe Availability

Heuristic involves judging the likelihood of an event or the correctness of a hypothesis based on how easily the hypothesis or examples of that event come to mindHow “Available” is the

information to you?

Ex:After reading an article about lottery winners, you start to overestimate your own likelihood of winning the jackpot. You start spending more money than you should each week on lottery tickets.

+The Availability Heuristic

For example, after seeing several news reports about car thefts, you might make a judgment that vehicle theft is much more common than it really is in your area.

After 9/11, Americans reported higher levels of fear associated with flying. Although statistically more dangerous, many

chose driving over flying in the months immediately following the attack.

+Obstacles to Solving Problems

+Mental Set

A tendency to approach a problem in a particular way

A well-established habit of perception or thought

The set may or may not be helpful in solving a new problem

+Functional Fixedness

Type of mental set

Inability to see an object as having a function other than its usual one

Have to unlock a door?Use a credit card.

Have to tighten a screw without a screwdriver?Use scissors, or a coin

Mounting candle problem

Using only the objects present on the right, attach the candle to the bulletin board in such a way that the candle can be lit and will burn properly

Answer to candle problem

Most people do not think of using the box for anything other than its normal use (to hold the tacks)

To solve the problem,

you have to overcome functional fixedness

+Nine dots problem

Without lifting your pencil or re-tracing any line, draw four straight lines that connect all nine dots

Nine dots mental set

Most people will not draw lines that extend from the square formed by the nine dots

To solve the problem, you have to break your mental set

+ Fixation

A mental set that hinders the solution of a problem

One needs to think beyond the mental set to solve the new problem

+Decision Making

+Decision MakingSingle feature model—make a decision by

focusing on only one featureDo you use this model in making decisions?

Ever choose a date based on looks?Choose a class based on how easy you

heard it was?Go see a movie because a friend told

you it was good?Choose a restaurant based on price?

+Additive Model

Systematically evaluate the important features of each alternative.First create a list of factors that are

important to you.Then rate each alternative on each

factor.What factors do you consider when

choosing a college?

+ Elimination-by-AspectsRate choices based on features.

Evaluate each alternative one characteristic at a time, starting with the one you think is most important.

Eliminate those that do not meet the desired criteria

Over time your alternatives will be narrowed down.

We often use this to get our options to a few and then use the additive model to make the final decision.

+Decisions Involving Uncertainty

+Bias EffectsConfirmation bias—only search for

information confirming one’s belief. I dislike Miss Dryer, so anything people

say against her will be information I process as fact

Belief bias—accept only information that conforms to beliefs I strongly believe that income is the

biggest factor in whether or not children complete high school. Discussion of race, ability, and access are not important.

+Bias EffectsFallacy of positive instances—

remember uncommon events that confirm our beliefsOne time, I saw a shark fin in the water, I

will NEVER again go swimming in the ocean—it’s too dangerous!

Overestimation—tendency to overestimate rarity of events I never see any news of murders in

Jackson, so I’m sure there are hardly ever any Jackson is in the top 100 most

dangerous cities in the US!

+Overconfidence

The tendency to be more confident than correct when estimating the accuracy of one’s beliefs and judgmentsHow well do you know your info for this test?

How well do you drive in bad weather? In a car? In a jeep?

+Framing

The way an issue is worded or presented can influence decisions and judgments

Do you think it is OK to kill unborn children?

Do you believe that abortion is an appropriate option for those with unwanted pregnancies?

Would you rather buy beef that is 70% lean, or 30% fat?

+Belief Perseverance

The tendency for our preexisting opinions to distort our sense of whether a particular conclusion is logically validClinging to one’s initial beliefs even after

new information discredits the basis on which they were formed

1. Break mental sets – be creative! (see next slide)2. Find useful analogy

3. Represent information efficiently

4. Find shortcuts

5. Establish sub-goals

6. Turn ill-defined problems into well-defined problems

Strategies for solving problems