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The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2012
An Independent Assessment 15 Months After Fukushima (see www.WorldNuclearReport.org)
Mycle Schneider International Consultant on Energy and Nuclear Policy
Paris, France
Mycle Schneider Consulting (MSC)
IAEA-INPRO-Dialogue Forum “Long-term Prospects for Nuclear Energy in the Post-Fukushima Era”
Seoul, 29 August 2012
Seoul, 29 August 2012
Seoul, 29 August 2012 Mycle Schneider Consulting (MSC)
Current Status of the Nuclear Power Plants in Japan(as of August 17, 2012)
: In�operation
(2
unit,�2.36GWe)
:�Outage�for�the�periodic�inspection
(35�units,�30.61GWe)
:�Shutdown�due�to�tsunami�
andand�the�government�request
(13�units,�13.18�GWe)
TOTAL�:�50
units,�46.15
GWe
Abolished
Seoul, 29 August 2012 Mycle Schneider Consulting (MSC)
Source: IAEA-PRIS, 2012
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900 U
nite
d St
ates
Fran
ce
Rus
sia
Japa
n
Sout
h K
orea
Ger
man
y
Can
ada
Ukr
aine
Chi
na
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom
Swed
en
Spai
n
Bel
gium
Taiw
an
Indi
a
Cze
ch R
epub
lic
Switz
erla
nd
Finl
and
Bul
garia
Bra
zil
Hun
gary
Slov
akia
Sout
h A
fric
a
Rom
ania
Mex
ico
Slov
enia
Arg
entin
a
Net
herla
nds
Paki
stan
Arm
enia
Nuclear Electricity Generation in the World in 2011 (per country) (net TWh)
TWh
Total World 2,518 TWh
TWh
© M
ycle
Sc
hn
eid
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Co
ns
ult
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Seoul, 29 August 2012 Mycle Schneider Consulting (MSC)
15!
22!
34!
25!23!
15!
8!
11!
15!
9!
13!
20!
12!
9!10!
6!4!
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 43
Num
ber o
f Rea
ctor
s Age of 429 Reactors in Operation in the World
as of 1 May 2012
Mean Age: 23 years
Mean Age 27 Years
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Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2012
Seoul, 29 August 2012 Mycle Schneider Consulting (MSC)
Sour
ce: I
AEA-
PRIS
, MSC
, 201
2
Reactors « Under Construction » in the World (1 July 2012)
Seoul, 29 August 2012 Mycle Schneider Consulting (MSC)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Average Annual Construction Times in the World 1954-2012 (by grid connection date)
Average construction time (in year)!
Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2012
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Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2012
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-35,000
-30,000
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
,000
5,000
10,000
15,000 20
11
2012
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2058
Number of Reactors
Capacity in MWe
Projection 2011-2057 of Nuclear Reactor Numbers/Capacity Operating and Under Construction in the World in July 2012
General assumption of 40 years of mean lifetime + Authorized Lifetime Extensions (MWe and number of units)
Reactors Added - Shut-down
Capacity Added - Shut-down
2012-2020 -16 reactors +6,500 MW
2031 - 2040 -100 reactors
-85,000 MW 2021 - 2030 -192 reactors -172,000 MW ©
Myc
le S
ch
ne
ide
r C
on
su
ltin
g
Net Balance
2041 - 2050 -53 reactors -49,500 MW
2051 - 2057 -68 reactors -61,500 MW
Seoul, 29 August 2012 Mycle Schneider Consulting (MSC)
Source: WNISR 2012
Evolution of EPR Cost Estimates 2003-2012
Seoul, 29 August 2012 Mycle Schneider Consulting (MSC)
• ”Most nuclear projects are financed either by Governments or by very large utilities.”
• ”They are at high risk of being completed late and significantly over budget.”
• ”Nuclear projects face heightened political risk relative to other energy assets.”
• ”Public acceptance is not assured and this brings reputational risk.”
• ”No clear idea about the economics.”
French BNP-Paribas Bank Conclusions on Nuclear New Build
Source: BNP-Paribas 2012, “How will financing be secured in the future?”, Mark Muldowney, Presented at the European Nuclear Forum, Brussels, 19 March 2012
Seoul, 29 August 2012 Mycle Schneider Consulting (MSC)
Source: WNISR 2012
Long Term Credit Ratings of Nuclear Related Companies
Seoul, 29 August 2012 Mycle Schneider Consulting (MSC)
Rating Agency Moody’s and Nuclear Power “…a nuclear project could be the thing that pushes [the utility] over the edge—it's just another negative factor.” Decisions considered “credit positive”:
• German utilities E.ON and RWE pullout of UK new-build market is considered positive because they “can instead focus on investment in less risky projects”. • German electronics company Siemens announcement to entirely withdraw from nuclear power “frees up funds that Siemens can redeploy in businesses with better visibility”.
Sources: see WNISR 2012
Seoul, 29 August 2012 Mycle Schneider Consulting (MSC)
Sources: BNEF 2012; WNISR 2012
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Global Investment Decisions in New Renewables and Nuclear Power 2004-2011
New Renewables Nuclear
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$ billion
Seoul, 29 August 2012 Mycle Schneider Consulting (MSC)
Renewable Energy Investment in Top 10 Countries 2009-2011 (in billion US$)
2011 2010 2009 United States 48.1 34.0 22.5 China 45.5 54.4 39.1 Germany 30.6 41.2 20.6 Italy 28.0 13.9 6.2 India 10.2 4.0 3.2 UK 9.4 7.0 N/A Japan 8.6 7.0 N/A Spain 8.6 4.9 10.5 Brazil 8.0 7.6 7.7 Canada 5.5 5.6 3.5 ! Sources: BNEF 2012; WNISR 2012
Seoul, 29 August 2012 Mycle Schneider Consulting (MSC)
30
57
103
221
13 6
6
22
66
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
GWe
Wind, Solar and Nuclear Grid Connections in the World 2000–2011 (cumulated, in GWe)
Wind
Nukes
Solar
Source: IAEA-PRIS, Global Wind Energy Council, JRC, 2012
Seoul, 29 August 2012 Mycle Schneider Consulting (MSC)
116
84
47
11
-10 -14 -14
-40
0
40
80
120
160
Gas Wind PV Other Renewables
Coal Nuclear Fuel Oil
Net Electricity Generating Capacity Additions in the EU 2000-2011 by Energy Source in GWe
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yc
le
Sc
hn
eid
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Co
ns
ul
tin
g
GWe
Source: EWEA 2012
Seoul, 29 August 2012 Mycle Schneider Consulting (MSC)
8
52
98
330
220
78
1 4
40
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-e
TWh Global Increase in Electricity Production 2000-2011 from Nuclear, Wind and Solar
(in TWh)
Wind Nuclear Solar, Tide and Wave
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140
163 159
102
20
50
112
0
50
100
150
200
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
TWh German Generation of Nuclear and Renewables 1991-2011 (in TWh)
Nuclear Renewable
© Mycle Schneider Consulting
Sources: US EIA 2011, PRIS 2012, AGEB 2012
Seoul, 29 August 2012 Mycle Schneider Consulting (MSC)
Post-Fukushima Reactions in China
• No construction initiation in 2011. • Limiting units per site?
• Startup of 2 new commercial reactors in 2011 (1,600 MW).
• Abandoning of CPR1000 series? Waiting for Gen III reactors?
• Acceleration of renewable energy programs in 2011:
+18,000 MW wind (11 x nuclear) à 63,000 MW installed (= French nuclear) +3,000 MW solar (2 x nuclear, 5 x addition 2010) à Target quadrupled to 20 GW by 2015
Seoul, 29 August 2012 Mycle Schneider Consulting (MSC)
1
12
26
42
63
0,1 0,9 3,8
2 5
10 12
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70 Installed Nuclear, Wind and Solar Capacity in China 2000-2011 (in GWe)
Wind Power Solar PV Nuclear
GWe
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Sources: GWEC, IAEA PRIS, BP Statitical Review, Solar PV Investor, 2012
Seoul, 29 August 2012 Mycle Schneider Consulting (MSC)
16
42
55
70
87
1 4
25
48
67
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
TWh Electricity Produced by Nuclear and Wind in China 2000-2011 (in TWh)
Nuclear
Wind
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Seoul, 29 August 2012 Mycle Schneider Consulting (MSC)
Source: IPSOS, June 2011
South-Korean Public Most Influenced by 3/11
Conclusions • Nuclear power plays a limited role in the international energy sector: ≈11% of electricity, <5% of primary energy, <2% of final energy in the world. • Most of the indicators are on the decline (installed capacity, power generation, share in global power generation, units under construction…). • Fukushima increases costs (safety, insurance, financing…) and problems (public opinion, political parties, competence…). Many nuclear companies are in deep financial trouble. • Post-Fukushima policy decisions, especially in two of the four major economies in the world—Germany, Japan—will likely have a strong pull effect on non-nuclear policies. • Globally, nuclear’s main competitors are natural gas and renewables with very fast, steady and large growth rates. • Renewables penetration will accelerate with storage and grid developments.
Seoul, 29 August 2012 Mycle Schneider Consulting (MSC)
Seoul, 29 August 2012 Mycle Schneider Consulting (MSC)
Thank You!
Contact: mycle@orange.fr Phone: +33-1-69 83 23 79
“We know the country that harnesses the power of clean, renewable energy will lead the 21st century.”
President Barack Obama State of the Union Address
27 January 2010
www.WorldNuclearReport.org - online now!
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