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The Value of Systems Science to Study
Pan-Euro-Asian Futures Prof Dr Pavel Kabat
IIASA Director General /CEO Professor of Earth System Science, Wageningen University, NL
THE EARLY 1970s
Sources: nuclearweaponarchive.org, The Guardian
Sources: US Department of Interior, IIASA
International, independent, interdisciplinary
Research on major global problems
Solution oriented, integrated systems analysis
22(25) NATIONAL MEMBER ORGANIZATIONS
IIASA: TRULY INTERNATIONAL • ~ 330 researchers in house include researcher scholars,
research assistants, postdoctoral research scholars, and young scientists from more than 50 countries
• ~25% of IIASA alumni (3,475 people worldwide) remain actively involved in IIASA research
• Active and formalized collaboration with over 300 institutions worldwide
• 900 visitors (science & science diplomacy) coming to IIASA and 180 international meetings hosted in 2013
• ~2050 researchers from some 65 countries involved in IIASA’s research network in 2013
6
IIASA’s Systems Science Approach
• Integrated • Interdisciplinary • International • Independent • Solution-oriented • Long term • Trade offs
= Systems Analysis
ADVANCED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS: • Dynamic Systems • Multi-criteria decision analysis • Adaptive dynamics theory • Game theory • Agent-based modeling • Stochastic optimization • …………
Food &
Water
Poverty
& Equity
IIASA Research Strategy
Energy
& Climate Change
Benefits of Systems Approach (Example)
• 2006-12: Global Energy Assessment involving 500 experts around the world
• 2009 to date: GEA provides critical input to Un Secretary-General’s Sustainable Energy For All Initiative including defining the aspirational yet feasible objectives: 1. Ensure universal access to modern
energy services 2. Double the global rate of
improvements in energy efficiency 3. Double the share of renewable
energy in the global energy mix 10
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200 Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030
~55% renewables by 2030
Oil phase-out (necessary)
Nuclear phase-out (policy)
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
Einsparungen Andere E Nuklear Gas Öl Kohle Biomasse
Global Primary Energy no CCS, no Nuclear
Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass
Biomass
Coal
Renewables Nuclear
Oil
Gas
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
Biomass
Coal
Renewables Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Global Primary Energy China
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
EJ
0
50
100
150
200
250 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass
~50% efficiency and decline of coal by 2030
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
EJ
0
50
100
150
200 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass
Global Primary Energy Europe
~30% renewables by 2030
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives
Tota
l Glo
bal P
olic
y Cos
ts (2
010-
2030
)
Added costs of ES and PH are comparatively low when CC is taken as an entry point
Energy Policy Costs (% GDP)
Source: McCollum, Krey, Riahi, 2012
Systems Science Case Study 1:
Surprising Feedbacks
Between Land Biota and Climate
The Precursor: Wladimir I. Vernadsky
”The biosphere is a unique region of the Earth’s crust occupied by life.
There are no stronger chemical forces at the earth surface [...] than living organisms taken in their totality”.
1926
LE = 0.65 R n LE = 0.25 R n
H = 0.3 R n
H = 0.65 R n
Boreal Forest
Temperate Forest
Coupling Principles - Energy Balance Link R n = LE + H + S
0.10 R g
R n = 0.87 R g
0.10 R g
R n = 0.87 R g
S = 0.03 R n
S = 0.07 R n
25 m 10 m
PBL 1500 m
PBL 3000 m
CAPE + cloud activity characteristics
Regional Deforestation and Rainfall (Amazon)
Land cover type and rainfall
current landscape
(adapted from Pielke et al, 1997)
natural landscape, showing a significant impact on the development of clouds resulting from a change in land cover type
A mesoscale simulation of clouds at 21 GMT on 15 may 1991 over part of the USA
Transpiration
Surface evaporation
Surface runoff
Subsurface runoff Infiltration
Precipitation
CO2 rise, climate change and the hydrological cycle
Transpiration
Surface evaporation
Surface runoff
Subsurface runoff Infiltration
Precipitation
CO2 rise, climate change and the hydrological cycle
Affected by climate change
Transpiration
Surface evaporation
Surface runoff
Subsurface runoff Infiltration
Precipitation
CO2 rise, climate change and the hydrological cycle
Affected by climate change
Also affected directly by changing CO2 concentration (“Physiological Forcing” – Sellers et al, 1996)
Global mean runoff (mm day-1): HadCM3LC
Radiative forcing only Radiative + physiological forcing
Global mean runoff (mm day-1): HadCM3LC
Radiative forcing only Radiative + physiological forcing
Runoff increase is greater when reduced stomatal conductance due to CO2 is included. Greater increase in flood risk? But less increase in drought risk?
However……… • We still seroiusly oversimplify the role and
behaviour of the biosphere (vegetation) in our models (land surface models, climate models, earth system models…)
• Living biosphere in our models is actually a pretty much dead biosphere
• Verdanski (and Kopffen) would not be happy at all…
Living biosphere is………like us humans
• Clever….??? • Lazy…. • Selfish and competitive (and often
cruel)….. • Selective and choosy… • Amazingly resilient…… • Extremely vulnerable….
How could the local bio-chemical activity of terrestrial vegetation species evolve to serve
in the altruism of planetary regulation?
Pavel Kabat, Ruud Janssen, Laurens Ganzeveld, Marku Kulmala,
Andi Andreae,…
The DMS (DiMethylSulphide ) -feedback
Sea to air flux (+)
Loss of solar radiation to space
(-)
Earth Surface Temperature Solar irradiance below cloud
Marine CLAW hypothesis (DMS-feedback • Charlson, Lovelock, Andreae & Watson (CLAW) 1987,
Nature • Coupling marine biology, marine & atmospheric chemistry
and atmospheric physics – DiMethylSulphide largest precursor for CCN
production over oceans • Negative feedback: biological control on climate through
modification of planetary albedo, surface radiation and consequently on biological processes
• Earth System “Self-regulation”, ‘Homeostasis’
Terrestrial CLAW-equivalent: how this may work? • Plants emit Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) under influence of
light and temperature • VOC’s are partially converted into Secondary Organic Aerosols
(SOA) • These SOA work as Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) • More CCN lead to a higher cloud albedo, longer cloud lifetimes and
lower precipitation efficiency • Less incoming solar radiation received by the Earth’s surface • Suppression of emission of VOC’s (directly and by suppressing
photosynthesis)
Photooxidation
T, PAR
Terrestrial ‘CLAW’
SOA
CCN
Cloud properties
atmosphere
biosphere Photosynthesis
Radiation budget
BVOC (isoprene, monoterpenes)
Phenonoly, long-term vegetation dynamics
Short-term emission variability (daily & seasonal cycles) and chemistry
BVOC’s: a component of an “intelligent” self-regulation??
• Side-products of
photosynthesis – Defense against predation – Communication – Protection from high
temperatures • Or just emitted because they
are volatile?
Examples of self-regulation hypothesis • Contrasting effects for contrasting regimes: • “Resilience” boreal forest to climate change
– Higher temperatures > more BVOC > more cloud formation > less insolation > lower temperatures
• Resilience Amazon to drying (global warming) – Higher temperature > higher BVOC > lower
insolation > lower temperature – Higher BVOC-emissions > more CCN > more
precipitation above forest > sustained soil moisture> etc..
T- CLAW feedback mechanism important for Earth System temperature self-regulation (homeostasis) and long term resilience???
- White daisies in Gaia can do it, DMS can do it, so why not BVOCs???
- Key importance for understanding of climate system feedbacks (negative feedback)
- Sensitivity: - Doubling of present DMS emission rates may counteract global
warming of up to 2 deg! - Doubling of present DMS and BVOCs rates may counteract global
warming of up to 4 deg…..
-
Living biosphere in earth system models….how to get beyond the present state of the affaires?
• To collaborate among: • Plant physiologists, • Physicists, chemists, hydrologists, meteorologists • Plant cell and evolutionary biologists… • Plant behavior and biological cognition scientists…
Systems Science Case Study 2: Ecology, Evolution, and Game Theory at IIASA as applied to Arctic Fisheries after Ulf Dieckmann Program Director IIASA Evolution and Ecology Program
Early Highlights in Ecology
Resilience dynamics
Pest management models Adaptive management
Early Highlights in Game Theory Game theory, decision analysis Indirect reciprocity
Replicator dynamics Win-stay, lose-shift Adaptive dynamics
Methodological integration
Interdisciplinary Bridges
Anthropogenic environmental impacts
Evolution Ecology Socio- economics
on fisheries, biodiversity, common goods, …
Management measures
Socio-economic system
Processors and retailers
Fishers
Consumers
Socio-economic environment
(Arctic) Fishery Systems Management system
Fishery policy and planning
Fishery management
Fishery development
Fishery research
Service values
Fishing pressure
Ecosystem status
Ecosystem services Supporting services
Regulating services
Provisioning services
Cultural services
Natural system Target stock
Non-target species
Ecosystem embedding
Physical environment
Management of Northeast Arctic Cod
Adult biomass (1000 tonnes)
Marine Policy 39:172 (2013)
• Challenge Harvest-control rules are politically negotiated without support from quantitative modeling
• Innovation Our assessment is process-based, couples an individual-based biological model with an economic model, and accounts for three alternative objectives
• Results Current rule maximizes profit, while alternative objectives lead to more aggressive exploitation
Yield-maximizing HCR (Johannesburg World Summit 2002)
Welfare-maximizing HCR Current HCR Profit-maximizing HCR
0 20 40 60 80 100 Mi
nim
um-s
ize lim
it (c
m)
Annual harvest proportion of unprotected stock (%)
5
10
15
2
0
Status quo
70%
Management of Barents Sea Capelin • Challenge Traditional
assessments account for quotas, yields, and a single stakeholder group
• Innovation Our assessment accounts for two regulations (quotas and minimum-size limits), four benefits (yields, profits, employment, and ecological impact), and five stakeholder groups
• Results Maximum joint satisfaction is high, and is best achieved through minimum-size limits
• Challenge Stock collapsed in 1992 and has not recovered since; heavy exploitation favors earlier maturation at smaller size
• Innovation Pioneering statistical and modeling techniques
• Results We have documented a 30% drop in size at maturation and showed that such evolutionary impacts of fishing are very slow and difficult to reverse
Collapse of Northern Cod
Moratorium
1975 1992 2004 30
80
70
60
50
40
Size at 50% maturation probability at age 5 (cm)
Nature 428:932 (2004)
Improving Fishing Policies • Challenge Evolutionary
considerations are a blind spot of current fisheries management
• Innovation Convened international expert group on Fisheries-induced Evolution as part of the scientific advice by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES)
• Results Monitoring maturation evolution has become a binding EU requirement; new tool: Evolutionary Impact Assessments (EvoIAs)
Science 318:1247 (2007) Science 320:48 (2008)
Systems Science Example 3
IIASA Arctic Futures Initiative (AFI)
…in contribution to PEEX……
What do we mean by the Arctic? … and what are the challenges?
Arctic Circle (66° 33'N)
1. Decision makers perspective 2. Economic perspective 3. Researcher perspective
Various definitions of the Arctic
Decision makers’ perspective • Arctic strategies of Canada, US, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Russia
– Shared features • Focus on strong position, credible defence • Economic growth • Sustainability • World leader in Arctic research
• Arctic Council – Dialogue forum about the code of conduct – Peaceful cooperation – Role and nature of observations, membership criteria – Disaster management – NO discussion on security issues, NOR economic exploitation
• Arctic parliamentarians – Legislation of the area – role of the Arctic Council – Role of indigenous people – Geopolitical friction in the region – Nature of global warming unclear – Race of resources – Different regulatory requirements > delays
Natural resources • Oil and gas
– Undiscovered 90 bn barrels of oil, 1669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, 44 bn barrels of natural gas liquids > 412 barrel s of oil and oil equivalent natural gas
• Mineral deposits – Rare earth minerals, cobalt, lithium and molybdenum – Zink, led, silver
• Sea Routes: Cargo ship activity increased by 36 percent and tanker activity 114 percent from 2008 till 2011 (AP)
• 20% of the worlds fish catch (primary product rise in the Russian zone) (E1)
• GDP per capita is very high
Oil and Gas Production
Pan-Arctic Transit Shipping
Conflicting interests….
GROWTH
LITTORAL STATES
MAXIMIZED EXISTENCE
SUSTAINABILITY
SHARED RESOURCES
COOPERATION AND PEACE
PREDICTION REQUIREMENTS NO DATA
FINLAND’S ARCTIC VISION “Finland is an active Arctic actor with the ability to reconcile the limitations imposed and business opportunities provided
by the Arctic environment in a sustainable manner while drawing upon international cooperation.”
Finland’s Arctic strategy is based on four pillars of policy: “an Arctic country, an Arctic expert, sustainable development and
environmental considerations, international cooperation.” Finland’s Strategy for the Arctic Region (23 August 2013)
Arctic research pattern Substance
Methodology specific integrative
holistic
University of Arctic (UArctic)
Arctic Technology Centre (ARTEK)
World Weather Research Program (WWRP)
specific
Arctic Contaminants Action Program (ACAP)
Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP)
Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (CAFF)
Emergency Prevention, Preparedness and Response (EPPR)
Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment (PAME)
Sustainable Development Working Group (SDWG)
International Arctic Science Committee (IASC)
Association of Polar early career scientists (APECS)
International Arctic Social Sciences Association (IASSA)
The Pacific Arctic Group (PAG)
Forum of Arctic Research Operators (FARO)
European Polar Board (EPB)
Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX)
World Climate Research Program (WCRP)
Commission of Atmospheric Sciences (CAS/WCRP)
Euro-Arctic futures 2020
Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic (AACA)
IIASA Arctic Futures
Initiative
VALUES
ACTORS
DRIVERS
PRESSURE
Global economy
Investments
Trade
Regional economy
Oil and gas
CO2, CH4, BC
Temperature
Albedo land cover, land use
Melting
IIASA Arctic framework
VALUES
ACTORS
DRIVERS
PRESSURE
Global economy
Investments
Trade
Regional economy
Oil and gas
CO2, CH4, BC
Temperature
Albedo land cover, land use
Melting
IIASA Arctic framework
Resources, energy Population Economy Policy Society Technology Climate change, global h
Researchers Politicians Businesses Organisations Media General public
Culture National Institutional Equity Economic Common goods Security Transparency Trust Cooperation Sustainability
VALUES
ACTORS
DRIVERS
PRESSURE
Global economy
Investments
Trade
Regional economy
Oil and gas
CO2, CH4, BC
Temperature
Albedo land cover, land use
Melting
IIASA Arctic framework
Resources, energy Population Economy Policy Society Technology Climate change, global h
Researchers Politicians Businesses Organisations Media General public
Culture National Institutional Equity Economic Common goods Security Transparency Trust Cooperation Sustainability
Global <-> Regional States? Impacts? Responses? Feedbacks?
BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE GLOBAL DRIVERS ; IMPACT ON and FEEDBACKS WITH THE ARTIC
BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE ARCTIC DRIVERS IMPACT ON THE GLOBAL SYSTEMS
Holistic research approach by • Generating policy relevant
questions • Collaboration with the Arctic
Council, Arctic Economic Council, Arctic research community, governments, corporate decision makers and research funders
• Using IIASA methodological frameworks
• Holistic integrated assessment
ARCTIC FUTURES INITIATIVE
Systems Science is needed to put the ”Pan-Euroasian puzzle” together by emphasizing trans- and multidisciplinary, and multi-sectoral systems thinking, methodologies, applications and science to policy dialogue...
Thank you and welcome at IIASA soon !!
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