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The Simulation and Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation of CAM on Sahel Drought. Yi-Chih Huang. Sahel Drought (I). Nicholson et al. 2000. Dai et al. 2004. Sahel Drought (II). Todd Mitchell’s web page. GPCP. Global Precipitation climatology Project Data - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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The Simulation and Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation
of CAM on Sahel Drought
Yi-Chih Huang
Sahel Drought (I)
Nicholson et al. 2000
Dai et al. 2004
Sahel Drought (II)
Todd Mitchell’s web page
GPCP• Global Precipitation climatology Project • Data
– 2.5 x 2.5 degree grid from Jan 1979 to Sep 2009– 1 x 1 degree grid from Oct 1996 to Jun 2009
• Created by merging – rain gauge data– Infrared estimates of precipitation– microwave satellite estimates of precipitation
• Scattering : Wilheit et al. (1991) histogram approach• Emission : Grody (1991) scattering index
CMAP• The CPC (Climate Prediction Center) Merged
Analysis of Precipitation• Data
– on 2.5 x 2.5 degree grid from 1979 to 2008– pentad and monthly analysis
• Sources– gauge observations– five kinds satellite estimates (IR-based GPI, OLR-
based OPI, MSU, microwave scattering and microwave emission)
– NCEP/NCAR reanalysis
Hydrological Onset and Withdrawal Index
Dalu, et al., 2009
Precipitation in August 2000 (I)
Precipitation in August 2000 (II)
Precipitation in August 2000 (III)
African Surface Temperature CAM v CRU
African Surface Temperature DeparturesCAM v CRU
Histogram of African Surface Temperature Departures for CAM v CRU
African Surface Temperature Departures with Least/Largest RMSE for CAM v CRU
African Surface Temperature CAM v NCEP
African Surface Temperature Departures CAM v NCEP
Histogram of African Surface Temperature Departures for CAM v NCEP
African Surface Temperature Departures with Least/Largest RMSE for CAM v NCEP
Sahelian Surface Temperature Departures CAM v CRU
Sahelian Surface Temperature Departures with Least/Largest RMSE for CAM v CRU
Sahelian Surface Temperature Departures CAM v NCEP
Sahelian Surface Temperature Departures with Least/Largest RMSE for CAM v NCEP
African Precipitation CAM v CRU
African Precipitation Departures CAM v CRU
RMS Histograms of African Precipitation Departures for CAM v CRU
African Precipitation Departures with Least/Largest RMSE for CAM v CRU
African Precipitation CAM v NCEP
African Precipitation Departures CAM v NCEP
RMS Histograms of African Precipitation Departures for CAM v NCEP
African Precipitation Departures with Least/Largest RMSE for CAM v NCEP
Sahelian Precipitation Departures CAM v CRU
Sahelian Precipitation Departures with Least/Largest RMSE for CAM v CRU
Sahelian Precipitation Departures CAM v NCEP
Sahelian Precipitation Departures with Least/Largest RMSE for CAM v NCEP
CAM Ensemble Tables6 15 20 23 31 35 40 45 least RMSE largest RMSE
st ΔCAM-ΔCRU 14 22 32 39 43 54 56 62
2 5 6 15 20 28 57 63
st ΔCAM-ΔNCEP 13 14 32 39 43 56 60 62
5 6 15 20 23 28 51 53
pcp ΔCAM-ΔCRU 4 12 13 34 36 37 43 61
2 15 20 23 31 33 35 45
pcp ΔCAM-ΔNCEP 4 34 36 37 41 43 60 61
6 15 20 23 31 35 40 45Sahel least RMSE largest RMSE
st ΔCAM-ΔCRU 9 12 14 22 26 34 41 60
6 15 20 23 31 33 45 58
st ΔCAM-ΔNCEP 9 12 14 22 26 34 41 44
6 15 19 20 23 31 33 45
pcp ΔCAM-ΔCRU 4 19 36 37 38 42 48 61
3 6 7 20 31 33 50 53
pcp ΔCAM-ΔNCEP 4 13 14 19 37 42 43 61
3 6 7 31 33 45 50 53
Summary• Since late 1960’s precipitation in Sahelian region is
almost persistently below the longterm mean• The patterns of mean CAM ensemble precipitation
in August 2000 are very different from CRU, GPCP, CMAP and NCEP
• CAM is Compared with CRU and NCEP– No ensemble run is in the groups with the least RMSE’s
in both temperature and precipitation– Several runs are in groups with the largest RMSE’s in
both temperature and precipitation in African and Sahelian domains
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