THE PHOTOVOLTAIC TECHNOLOGY Ing. S. Castello castello@casaccia.enea.it

THE PHOTOVOLTAIC THE PHOTOVOLTAIC TECHNOLOGY TECHNOLOGY

Ing. S. Castellocastello@casaccia.enea.it

ENEA, Renewable Sources Sector

July 2006

SUMMARY

• PV plants features• Applications

– Stand alone plants– Grid connected systems and Distributed

generation• Demonstrative projects• Tracking and concentrating systems• Market• PV industry• Plant and kWh costs• Diffusion programmes

CONCENTRATING PV

• The efficiency of cells is higher (30% - 40%)– high concentration factors: 100X – 1.000X (Irr*logIrr)– smaller cells

Solar radiation Solar radiation

PV cell

• PV material (high cost), is partially substituted with mirrors or lenses (lower cost)

CONCENTRATING PVThe incident energy is almost the same with respect to fixed plates systems:only the direct component of light is exploited

Concentrating system

Fixed flat plate (tilt = latitude)

CONCENTRATOR MODULES

- Concentration factor: 100X – 400X- Lens efficiency: 80% - 85%- cell cooling difficulty- Inexpensive polymer lens- lifetime not verified

Dishes

Central tower

Trough system

CONCENTRATORS

- Concentration factor: 1.000X- Mirror efficiency: 85% - 92%- currently high costs- Cooling challenge

PHOCUS PROJECT (PV Concentrators for Utility Scale)

– Aim: assessment of technical and economical feasibility of PV concentration for centralised generation

– Ongoing activities• Optimisation of the most appropriate technologies for solar cells,

optical devices, concentrator modules, tracking system• Development of a 5 kW standard unit

– c-Si cells optimised at 100-400 suns– refractive prismatic lenses

• Experimentation on 5 units

– Planned activities• Development of high efficiency cells• Investigation on optical devices based on Fresnel lenses and

Compound Parabolic Concentrators

CONCENTRATOR MODULE

Optical system(prismatic

lenses)

Structure with separators

Heat sink

PV cells

IEA-TASK 2 PERFORMANCE DATABASE

• Contains information on the technical performance, reliability and costs of 431 monitored PV plants located worldwide. Germany (118), Japan (95), Switzerland (64), Italy (35), France (31),…

• Applications: Stand alone, hybrids, grid connected

• Plant size: from 1 to 3300 kW

• Mounting typologies: facades, flat and sloped roofs, integrated roofs, sound barriers, free-standing

• Performance data collected from 1986 (Japan)

IEA-TASK 2 PERFORMANCE DATABASE• For each plant provide

– General information– Component data and system configuration– Data collected (Irr, Pdc, Pac,..)– Costs– Calculated data (index of performance)

• The user can – select PV system, present monitoring data, calculated results– export these data into spreadsheet programs– check the operational behavior of existing PV plants – get a report on performance results

• Can be downloaded from www.iea-pvps-task2.org

IEA source

EFFICIENCIES AND COSTS

inverter efficiency

Vulc1 Delp1 Casac Delp2 Vasto Serre Altan

PV genearator efficiency

84 85 91 91 93 94 96

module

INDICES OF PERFORMANCE

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

GLOBAL ECONOMIC SURVEY

• aimed to collect worldwide:– Costs of systems, components, maintenance (during their

life cycle)– Production data and maintenance information

• will allow to:– compare costs of system for different markets in different

countries as well as different sizes of installations– know the true LCA– predict performance life expectancy, mean time between

failure and costs to service and replace parts

• accessible on http://iea.tnc.ch

IEA source

Grid-connected centralisedGrid-connected distributedOff-grid non-domesticOff-grid domestic

- IEA countries: 2.8 GW- Total: 3.3 GW

- 1.2 MW in 2004- Growth rate: 42%

- Projections for 2005: 4,5 GW

- applications: 70% of small grid connected systems

INSTALLED POWER

Worldwide

IEA countries

IEA source

CUMULATIVE POWER IN THE COUNTRIES(end 2004)

52 19 13 23

39 26,30 8,2 31

10 18 496,9

GBR ITA

94% in JPN, USA and DEU

Impact of market support in terms of installed capacity per capita:- DEU: 10 W/c- JPN: 9 W/c- CHE: 3 W/c- NLD: 3 W/c- ITA: 0,5 W/c

IEA source

TRENDS IN SOME COUNTRIES

Annual rate growth:

- DEU: 137%Sustained by feed-in tariffs (0.5 €/kWh)

- constant in JPN: 22%, net metering at 0.2 €/kWh + low subsidy on capital costs (10%)

IEA source

DISTRIBUTION OF APPLICATIONAS

- PV roofs : CHE, DEU, GBR, JPN, NLD

- Vacation cottages: SWE NOR, FIN

-Rural electrification: MEX, FRA

- Commercial applications: USA e AUS

Grid-connected centralizedGrid-connected distributedOff-grid non-domesticOff-grid domestic

IEA source

PV SYSTEM MARKET IN ITALY

Primary applications • Off Grid domestic: 5,3 MW

– rural electrification (5000 isolated households promoted through 80% incentives in the early 80’)

– lighting• Economic industrial applications: 7 MW

– telecommunication– signaling– cathodic protection

• Demonstration (sharply increasing in the 90’): 6,7 MW• Distributed generation, growing over the last year (rooftop

Programme): 17 MW

• TOTAL: 36 MW

CUMULATIVE POWER IN ITALY

on-grid distributed

on-grid centralised

off-grid domestic

off-grid industrial

Law 308: rural electrification

Rooftop Programme

DemonstartionProjects (UE)

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

1993 1994 1995 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Module production

Production capacity

IEA source

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

• World module production in 2004 : 1200 MW (700 in 2003). Only IEA countries: 1070 MW

• Average growth : 60%– JPN: 70 % (50% of the world production)– DEU: 66% (second producer)– CHI: 400% (100 MW in 2004)– ESP: second producer in Europe – FRA and ITA: continue to lose market shares

• Production capacity growth: 17%– DEU: awaited expansion not fulfilled yet– USA: capacity reduction (abroad production)

MODULE PRODUCTION BY REGIONS (year 2004)

Japan USA Europe Rest

Othera-Si

IEA source

THE PV INDUSTRY STRUCTURE

Producers:– ingots and wafers

• USA (4 companies + Elken based in NOR): 5100 t • DEU (Wacker): 2800 t • JPN (Tokuyama) : 1000 t

– cells and modules• C-Si: 850 MW• a-Si: 40 MW• Others: 280 MW

– BOS components (inverter)• EU: 30 companies (SMA)• USA and JPN: 20 companies (Xantrex, Sharp)

THE PV INDUSTRY STRUCTURE

– Vertically integrated companies (from ingots to cells)• Kyocera (JPN), BP Solar, Shell Solar, Photowatt

– Company attempting to commercialize new processes• Silicon ribbon: RWE Schott• String ribbon: Evergreen Solar• Micro spherical silicon tech.: Canadian Spheral Solar Power• Silver cells: Australia Origin Energy

AU DEU ESP F GB IT JPN NL P SW USA

MODULE MANUFACTURERS

ITALIAN PV INDUSTRY

• 2 major module manufacturer– Enitecnologie (ENI, Italy’s oil and gas giant)

• Mono and multi-crystalline silicon cell and module production• Production capacity: 9 MW/year (4.2 MW last year)

– Helios Technology• Fabrication of cells and modules from mono-crystalline silicon

wafers• Production capacity: 10 MW/year (7 MW last year)

• Some small companies assembling and encapsulating tailor-made modules (facades, windows, coloured cells). Capacity: 10 MW/y

• 5 companies manufacturing small and medium size inverters, for on-grid and off-grid applications

• 100 specialist PV companies offering consultancy, design, installation services and component delivery (some of them constituting “GIFI”, the Italian PV Firm Group)

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

- Limited availability of C-Si feedstock (electronic industry):- necessity of a specific production: solar grade silicon- increase of a-Si market share (has remained at a modest level from 5% to 15%)- Material reduction (Si utilization is still relatively low) and efficiency increase- Concentration (use small area, high efficiency cells)

TECHNOLOGY PRODUCTION

PV INDUSTRY

• Actions to be taken:– Development of a sustainable market driven by incentives

(implementation of deployment measures)– Rules clear and appropriate (overcome barriers related to

regulations, standards, safety)– budget adequate for R&D and activities coordination– Strengthen joint initiatives between research and industry– Adopt instruments to encourage investment– Promote BIPV through the development of PV components to be

used in buildings– Ensure the Si availability matter at acceptable costs– Optimize the recycling process– Cooperation with other high tech sectors (flat panel display, micro

electronics, nanotechnologies

MARKET EXPECTATIONSTUDY COMPARISON

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Bayer (15%)

Kyocera (18%)

Strategies Unlimited (23%)

Growth rate)

MODULE PRICES EVOLUTION

53,2 3,2 1,40

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020year

(€/W)

- Modules prices 3.5 €/W- Module prices increased:

- tightening of Si supply- more order in the books of manufacturers than they could fill in

- Cost reduction (to 1.5-2 €/ in 2010)can be achieved by

- market growth (scale effect)- research efforts (new materials, manufacturing process optimization)

LEARNING CURVE OF MODULES

0,1 1 10 100 1000

Cumulated power (GW)

s of m

es (€

thin film

Growth rate in the past: 20%

- Historic learning curve shows a 18% cost decrease for every doubling of the cumulative installed power- The cumulated power has doubled 4 times in the last 10 years (prices reduction: 70%)

- The learning curve for C-Si and is expected to continue for the next 10 years till C-Si will reach its saturation value: 1€/W- thin films have the potential to extend learning curve beyond C-Si limit (less material and energy in the process, simpler and highly efficient process

PRICES OF MODULES AND SYSTEMS IN SOME COUNTRIES

(€/W

systems

modules

- Module prices: 3-4,5 €/W

- GCS: 5-7 €/W

- slight increase in prices over the previous year - learning curve of systems: shows a 15%-20% cost decrease (BOS cost decrease is along with module cost reduction)IEA Source

SYSTEM PRICES

AUSAUT

CHEDNK

DEUFIN

FRAGBR

<1 kW S.A.

<10 kW G.C.

System prices depend on- application (S.A or G.C.), size, location and mounting typology- dedicated design, technical specification

IEA Source

PRICES IN ITALY

Modules

Year 2002 2003 2004 2005

€/W 3.5 – 4.3 3.1 – 3.9 2.9 – 3.7 3.2 - 4

Systems

Category Application €/Wp

Off-grid (< 1 kWp) Lamps, Rural electrification,Industrial applications

10 - 13

On grid (< 10 kWp) Rooftops 6 – 8

On-grid (>10 kWp) Distributed generation 5.5 - 7

COST DISTRIBUTIONsmall G.C. plants

PV modules (4000 €/kW)51%

manpower (1400 €/kW)18%

supporting structures (400

€/kW)5%

cables and accessories (400

€/kW)5%

engineering (700 €/kW)

inverter (900 €/kW)12%

65% in large size plants

COSTS IN S.A. SYSTEMS

• COSTS PROPORTIONAL TO THE SIZE OF THE PLANT– PV modules 3,6 €/W– Cables and accessories 0,4 €/W– Supporting structures 35 €/m2– Site preparation 10 €/m2– dc/dc converter (charge controller)0,3 – 0,6 €/W

• COSTS PROPORTIONAL TO THE SIZE OF THE BATTERY– Battery housing 80 €/kWh– battery 200 €/kWh * N° of replacements

• COSTS PROPORTIONAL TO THE SIZE OF THE MAXIMUM LOAD– inverter 400 - 700 €/kW

THE PV ENERGY COST

CkWh = (Ci*A + Cm) / E

• Ci: investment cost – 6 - 7 €/W (grid-connected)– 10 – 12 €/kW (stand alone)

• A: capital recovery factor = r / (1- (1+r)-T)– r: interest rate (3 %)– T: system life span (30 years)

• Cm: annual maintenance cost (50 – 200 €/kW)• E: yearly energy production (1000 – 1300 kWh/kW)

• CkWh:– 0,3 – 0,35 €/kWh (grid-connected)– 0,5 – 0,7 €/kWh) (stand alone)

COST OF THE kWh

0,000,050,100,150,200,250,300,350,400,45

1,00 2,00 3,00 4,00 5,00 6,00 7,00

PV plant cost ($/W)

$) 2010Rome

Palermo

For typical system prices (6 €/W)corresponds 0,3 to 0,34 €/kWh, depending on location (Solar radiation)

Analysis show that system prices may reduce to 3.5 €/W (0,17-0,2 €/kWh), comparable with the price of energy paid by the end user

COST OF THE kWh Small G.C. systems (<5 kWp)

• Plant cost: 6 €/W• maintenance : 1% • interest rate: 4%• optimal exposition• kWh cost:

• 30 c€ in Sicily• 40 c€ in North Italy• 55 c€ in Germany

0,3 3 5 10 20 50 100 300

Daily load (kWh/day)

PV 10 $/W

PV 2 $/W

PV 5 $/W

For SAS the comparison is done with diesel generator or grid extension.In the case of small daily loads PV is not only cleaner and more reliable, but also a cheaper option

Diesel 0.75 $/LDiesel 0.5 $/L

Grid ext 1 km

Grid ext 5 km

Grid ext 20 km

Daily load (kWh/day)

GRIDPV PV/DIESEL

PV VS DIESEL AND GRID EXTENTION

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Price payd by end user (including taxes)

Bulk cost

900 h/a

1800 h/a

Grid connected rooftop

systems

GENERATION COSTS

In sunny countries, GCS will reach competitiveness with retail electricity in few years.PV generation cost will began to compete with bulk production only within 20 years

PAY-BACK TIMETime necessary to have NVA = 0Net value (actualized): NVA = CFA – (Ci – Contribution on c.c.)

Cashflow (actualized): CFA = Pi * (1+r)-i

Proceed: Pi = Ep*CkWh – Cm (1+r)-i : actualization factorr: interest rate

-2.500

-2.000

-1.500

-1.000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19

W) Payback time

yearsNet

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

feed-in tariffs (c€/kWh)

c.c.=75% c.c.= 60%

c.c.= 0%

c.c.= 20%

Feed-in tariff

Rooftop programme

MIXED INCENTIVES

-8.000

-6.000

-4.000

-2.000

1 3 5 7 9 11

300 kW

plant size (kW) 3 30 300

cost of plant (€/kW) without 10%VAT 6.500 6.000 5.500

feed-in tariff + net metering or sale(c€/kWh) 44,5+15 46,0+8 49,0+8

maintenance cost (€/kW/y) 35 20 10

interest rate (%) 2 2 2

energy produced (kWh/y/kW) 1.100 1.100 1.100

PAY BACK TIME (year) 12 13 11

ADDED VALUE

• Electric– Grid parameters improvement (peak, transmission losses)– Emergency

• Environmental– Emission reduction, acid rain prevention

• Architectural– Building functions (heat and noise insulation water and fire

protection electromagnetic reflection)• Socio-economic

– Induced employment– Resource diversification– Technological transfer

COSTS AND ADDED VALUE

added value

incentivs

effective cost

present future

conventional energy

incentives

PV PROS AND CONS• HIGH COST

At present is not realistic to recourse to this technology for– Energy source diversification– Significant emission reduction

• INTRINSIC FEATURES– Among the RES is the most attractive and promising for local and diffuse

electricity production (medium and long term)

• HIGH STRATEGIC VALUE– National Governments have launched important Programs increasing

• Market• Production capacity• R&D efforts

INCENTIVESCountry Initiatives

ITALY Roof top programme almost completed (17 MW). Feed-in tariff launched in September 2005 (from 50 to 60 c€/kWh). 80 MW/year

FRANCE Public subsidy: 57% of installed cost. Budget: 18,9 M€

GERMANY Feed-in law amended (50 c€/kWh + soft loans). Budget in 2004: 250 M€. Installed power 1400 MW

SPAIN Feed-in tariffs ranging from 40 to 70 c€/kWh. Total capacity 150 MW

UK Major Demonstration Programme. Budget 31 MGBP. Grants: 50%

JAPAN Incentives on capital cost reduced to 5-10%. Budget 40 M€. Installed power 1400 MW. Target 5 GW by 2010

USA Subsidy and tax credit in California, Arizona, New Jersey, New York and North Carolina for a total budget of 180 M$

CHINA National Township Electrification Program: 660 villages (16 MW) + 10 000 (265 MW) by 2010

INDIA Solar PV Demonstration and Utilisation Program: 325 000 SHS installed with grant support

NATIONAL PROGRAMS

• STRATEGY AND MOTIVATION– Market growth (allowing companies to plan their

investments)– Technology diffusion– PV industries reinforcement– Definition of continuative R&D programs– New job opportunities

• FINAL GOAL– Economic competitiveness achievement

• Scale factor• Development of most competitive components

NATIONAL PROGRAMS

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Market Stimulation

Demonstration

Public budget• Over a decade public spending has increased from year to year

• Spending initially focused on R&D

• Spent on market stimulation increased in 2001

• Market stimulation started to decrease in 2004

IEA source

ECONOMIC BENEFITS

10.000

12.000

Installer, distributer

Manufacturer

-In the last years there has been a significant growth in employment (DEU, USA)

- Persons employed in R&D, industry and installation reach in 2004 about 30 000 unit.

- most new jobs are on installation and marketing

- component production tend to move towards low cost base economy

Year 2004

IEA Source

ITALIAN PV PROGRAMME

• Strategic goals– PV cost decrease– Development of national competitive industries– Local development – New job opportunities

• Relevant results– 38 MW of total cumulative PV power installed– National roof-top and feed-in Programmes– Big effort in RD&D– Competitive industrial system (production capacity 30 MW/y)– Growth of popular acceptance for PV

R&D ORGANIZATIONS IN ITALY

Organisation R&D areaENEA (Casaccia, Portici) c-Si, a-Si, a-Si/c-Si

heterostructures

Institute for Certification (CESI)

GaAs (space/terrestrial applications)

University of Milan c-Si

University of Ferrara c-Si

University of Parma Compound films

National Council for Scientific Research (Bari)

National Council for Scientific Research (Bologna)

c-Si, a-Si/c-Si heterostructures

ENEA R&D ACTIVITIES

• Systems and components

– Small grid connected plants• Characterisation of BIPV modules and ageing tests• Development of innovative inverters• Inverter characterisation and pre-qualification• Grid interface device tests

– Hybrid systems

– Medium size plants• Experimentation and long term performance analysis

ITALIAN ROOF-TOP PROGRAMME

• Started on March 2001

• Small grid connected BIPV plants

• Economic incentives: only on investment cost (up to 75%)

• Maximum investment cost allowed: 7 – 8 €/W

• Public funds: 115 M€

• Total investments: 175 M€ (23 MW expected)

• Starting phase (tune procedures and check people consensus)– National Programme

• 21 Regional Programmes

DECREE 387/03

• Put into effect the EU Directive 77/2001/CE in the Italian legislation and forecasts:– an annual increase of 0,35% in “green sources” share

obligation, from current 2%; – procedure simplification for plant installation and grid

connection;– advertising campaigns;– facilitations for small renewable source plants up to 20 kW

• Forecasts dedicated support measures for PV that include:– fixed feed-in tariffs, decreasing over time, for different

installations and a purchase obligation by the utilities.

FEED-IN TARIFFS IN ITALYDecree 28/7/05 and 6/2/06

Plant size (kW) Tariffs (€/kWh) Further value

1 <> 20 0,445 Net metering (15 c€/kWh)

20 <> 50 0,46 Self consumption or sale

(9,5 c€/kWh)

50 <> 1000 0,49 max. Self consumption or sale(9,5 – 7 c€/kWh)

Requirements of plants who can benefit of feed-in tariffs: 1 kW - 1 MW

FEED-IN TARIFF IN ITALY

– Duration of the support : 20 years

– Maximum Power to be supported: 500 MW

• 360 MW (< 50 kWp) + 140 MWp (> 50 kWp)

– Annual limit: 80 MW

– Final target at 2015: 1 GW

– Tariff reduction:5%/year

– Tariff increased of 10% for BIPV– Resources for the allocation of feed-in tariffs are covered by

the revenue of the A3 component of the electric tariff (3 €/Year/user)

APPLICATIONS SUBMITTED IN 2005

• Admitted applications within September: 2.914 (79% of submitted)– 2.868 P<50 kW (60,6 MW)– 46 P>50 kW (27 MW)

• Admitted applications within December: 6.207 (75% of submitted) – 6.137 P<50 kW (134,7 MW)– 70 P>50 kW (43,7 MW)

• Cumulated power in 2005: 266 MW

• Most active regions: Apulia, Sicily, Campania.

SUPPORT INCENTIVES COMPARISON

CAPITAL COSTS FEED-IN TARIFFS

End user Citizen, public organization (limited capital)

Investors, builders, commercial subjects (cash flow availability)

Management Public Bodies (Regions, Ministry)

Electric Utilities

Economic consideration

To overcome economic barrier in s.a or g.c. applications

To internalize externalities of traditional sources

Problems Don’t encourage investment for PV

Impact on the market depends on tariff value

CONCLUSIONS

• Although impressive progress have already been made, the early stage of PV development indicates a large margin of growth.

In the next 10-20 years is expected:– Efficiency 10-25% (35%: concentrators), lifetime 40 years– Electricity cost from PV: 5-15 c€/kWh– Components based on abundant non toxic materials– Implementation of new concepts (III generation)– BIPV in all new building (net producer)– Multi MW in deserts (hydrogen production)– Cumulated power: 200-400 GW– Jobs created: 300 000– Electricity to 100 million families

CONCLUSIONS

• In order to achieve the expected aims is necessary:– Define the strategies and the goals– Develop policy initiatives– Balance the efforts in R&D with the PV potential– Accelerate the transfer from research to production– Overcome the barriers (technical, standardization, financing,

market)– Strength the cooperation among sectors (electronics, buildings,

nanotechnologies)– Develop sustainable support measures (decreasing)– Foster the connection among R&D, Industry and Policy

THE PHOTOVOLTAIC TECHNOLOGY Ing. S. Castello castello@casaccia.enea.it

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