The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020 by Stefania Vannuccini Fishery Statistician...

The OECD-FAO The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook Agricultural Outlook

2011-20202011-2020

by Stefania VannucciniFishery Statistician (Commodities)

FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Statistics and Information Service

3rd AD-HOC FISH PRICE INDEX WORKSHOP3rd AD-HOC FISH PRICE INDEX WORKSHOP

Outlook modelsOutlook models

• Key role of outlook models • Importance to have a good

understanding on perspectives of developments in the food and agriculture sector

• Need to develop a model to analyze the outlook of the fisheries and aquaculture sector

Importance of fisheriesImportance of fisheriessectorsector

• In terms of food security• The significant growth of

aquaculture production• The expansion of the coverage of

food products and of the oil and feed markets

• The links and interactions with the agriculture sector

Interaction Interaction fisheries-agriculturefisheries-agriculture

• Integrating farming• Ecosystems, markets, products,

prices, innovation, technology• Competition on water and land

resources• Feed• Fish meal, fish oil• Raw material from agriculture and

livestock

Aglink-CO.SI.MO.Aglink-CO.SI.MO.

• OECD FAO Aglink-CO.SI.MO. modelling system

• Partial equilibrium model for international agriculture and food markets

• Medium term projections• Perform alternative scenarios• OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

publication

AGLINK ModelAGLINK Model• OECD• Dynamic, partial equilibrium supply-

demand model • Yearly basis since early 1990s• Medium-term projections• Agricultural key commodities• Assumptions• Coverage• Close collaboration with member

countries• Influence of agricultural policy

CO.SI.MO. ModelCO.SI.MO. Model

• FAO World Food Model• FAO COmmodity SImulation

MOdel• Yearly basis since 2004• Updating Cycle• Coverage• Commodities• Macro economic assumptions• Parameters

OECD-FAO OECD-FAO Agricultural OutlookAgricultural Outlook

• Country views are the starting point

• AGLINK CO.SI.MO is used to get a consistent and coherent picture

• Model outcomes adjusted through expert opinions

• Final reviews in OECD commodity working groups

• The datasets are available at: www.agri-outlook.org

Fish modelFish model

• Construction of a satellite model on fish and fishery products

• After a few years of use as a stand alone component, possible merging to the AGLINK-COSIMO model

• Benefit also for the model as will expand the coverage of food consumption and in particular of protein as well as of the oil and feed markets

Fish modelFish model• Two supply functions (capture and

aquaculture)• Capture: either exogenous, endogenous

but only affected by el Niño and endogenous but responding to price (13%)

• Aquaculture, 99% endogenous and responding to price of output and feed

• Fish meal and oil are composed by two components: from whole fish and from fish residue

Fish modelFish model

• Demand is split to three end uses, food, fishmeal/fish oil and other uses (kept exogenous)

• Demand for fish meal and oil responds to the need of aquaculture, the own price and the price of the respecive oilseed products

• Imports and exports of fish are either exogenous or a function of domestic and world prices adjusted for tariffs and transport costs

Fish model: assumptions

• El nino will affect South American capture in 2010, 2015 and 2020.

• Fishing quota under-fill will be minimal.

• Aquaculture productivity gains will be smaller than in the previous decade.

• New feeding technics will not prevent increase in the ratio of fish to oilseed meal price.

• Japan fish and seafood production affected by tsunami in 2011 and gradually returning after.

OECD-FAOAgricultural outlook 2011-

2020

Agricultural outlook 2011-2020

• Agricultural commodity prices in real terms higher compared to 2001-2010.

• Production costs are rising and productivity growth is slowing (1.7% compared to 2.6%)

• Energy related costs and feed cost will continue to increase

• Resource pressures on water and land are increasing

• Need of further investments into productivity enhancements

• Per capita food consumption will expand most rapidly in Eastern Europe, Asia and Latin America, with highest increases for vegetable oils, sugar, meat and dairy products

• Trade is expected to grow by 2% per year, slower than the previous decade

Outlook: GDP GROWTH

Growth of per capita consumption 2011-20 vs

2008-2010

TOTAL FISHERY PRODUCTION

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1990 1996 2002 2008 2014 2020

Capture

Aquaculture

million tonnes

Projections for capture fisheries

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1996 2002 2008 2014 2020

The share of fish reduced in fish meal will stabilize around 22%

Capture

El nino

million tonnes

Capture fisheriesCapture fisheries

* Indicates excluding USA, China and EU27 respectively

Projections for aquaculture production

1 000 tonnes

Growth rate of fish production by decades

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Aquaculture Capture

1981-1990

1991-2000

2001-2010

2011-2020

Least-squares growth rate (%)

Source: FAO

Aquaculture production

Total= 54.6 mt Total=72.4 mt

* Indicates excluding USA, China and EU27 respectively

Fish meal production

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1997 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

From whole fish

From fish residue

million tonnes

Chile and Peru, fish meal

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Peru

Chile

Others

million tonnes

World utilization and consumption projections

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

14

14.5

15

15.5

16

16.5

17

17.5

18

18.5

Fish for humanconsumption

Non-food uses offish

Per capita fishsupply

kg/capitaUtilization in million tonnes

Source: FAO

Increasing role of aquaculture in human

consumption

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 2000 2010 2020

Fish for human consumption (%)

From capture

From aquaculture

Source: FAO

Surpass in 2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Total capture

Capture for food

Aquaculture

million tonnes

World per capita fish consumption

10

12

14

16

18

20

1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020

kg per capita

General growth of fish consumption

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

NorthAmerica

LatinAmerica

Europe Africa Asia Oceania World

kg/capita

2008-2010

2018-2020

Source: FAO

Trend in world trade of fish and fishery products

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Imports excluding intra EU

Trend

million tonnes live weight

2020: trade of fish food by countries in quantity

China20%

EU279%

Thailand9%

Viet Nam8%Norway

7%

USA6%

Rest of world41%

EU2723%

USA15%

China9%Japan

9%Thailand

6%

Russian Fed5%

Rest of world33%

Exports Imports

Source: FAO

Share of 7 major exporters to increase

Total= 43.4 mtTotal= 34.8 mt

Share of major importing countries to remain rather

stable (about 68%)

Total= 34.1 mt

Total= 43.46 mt

Fish price projected to increase as prices of other

commodities

Traded products

Growing prices

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2009-2011=100

Aquaculture

Fish, trade

Capture

Source: FAO

Outlook: fish vs meat prices

Source: FAO-OECD

Growing prices

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2009-2011=100

Fish oil

Fish meal

Source: FAO

ConclusionConclusion• Projections indicate a continuous rise in

demand for fish and fishery products, with growing trade and consumption

• Need to long-term resource conservation and effective management of resources as well as of aquaculture

• Differentiation of consumption, opening of new markets

• Risk of increase of costs of production due to stable production of fishmeal/fish oil

• Too high prices in the market will risk the effect of substitution with other emerging commodities

Outlook for fish: Outlook for fish: supplysupply

• Major increases will depend on aquaculture. • Factors to influence future growth of

aquaculture: – costs/availability of feed for selected species;

access and availability of areas/water– environmental impacts– availability of technology and finance– effects on biodiversity– climate changes– governance– food safety and traceability issues

• Capture: importance of implement more cautious and effective fisheries management

Outlook for fish: Outlook for fish: demanddemand• Population/rural/urban

• Income• Retail concentration in developed and

developing which will affect demand• Product development, technological

innovation• Continuous increase of trade• Increased imports from developing

countries• Outsourcing of processing will continue• Slow growth in per capita consumption

Improvements of the model

• obtaining better transport cost data• obtaining more representative tariffs

for the aggregated components • obtaining or estimating FH food

demand elasticities• obtaining or estimating FHA supply

elasticities • identifying a better way to estimate

value of capture fisheries

Next steps• Present the fish model to the OECD

Committee of Fisheries• Ameliorate the fish model. Possible

inclusion of the Fish Price Index in the Fish model

• Establish a better collaboration with OECD Fisheries

• Prepare a new run of the fish model and insert a new fish chapter in the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2012-2021

• Final goal: inclusion of the Fish Model in the Aglink-CO.SI.MO. overall model

Links FH model and AGLINK-CO.SI.MO

• Three major links exist:– introduction of the FH consumer

price in the food demand functions of AGLINK/COSIMO

– the feed demand system– the interaction between the FM and

FL markets with their oilseed counterparts

Other integrationsOther integrations

• The Fishery and Aquaculture Department of FAO is also investigating for the possible integration of a fisheries and aquaculture component in some of the already existing models as well as to look for other potential models of FAO and other institutions/organizations

Fish toFish to

• Fish to 2030 report, updating of Fish to 2020 (Delgado, et al. 2003)

• IMPACT model of the IFPRI• Database prepared• Modeling in development phase

FAO Global Perspective FAO Global Perspective Studies for food and Studies for food and

agricultureagriculture

• Review• Long-term projections (30-40

years)of consumption and production of agricultural products and food, and of trends in world food security

• Recommandations by consultant to include fishery component in the studies

UK FORESIGHTUK FORESIGHT

• Project run by the UK Government for Science

• The project looks out to 2050 and take a global view of the food system, considering issues of demand, production and supply as well as broader environmental issues