THE NEPAL EARTHQUAKE OF APRIL 25,2015 M7.8 11:56 AM Saturday Morning Walter Hays, Global Alliance...

THE NEPAL EARTHQUAKE OF APRIL 25,2015

M7.811:56 AM Saturday Morning

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Disaster Reduction, Vienna,

Virginia, USA Virginia, USA 

NEPAL: ONE OF THE GLOBAL

EARTHQUAKE DISASTER LABORATORIES

NEPAL: COLLISION OF EURASIAN AND INDO-AUSTRALIAN PLATES

NEPAL: COLLISION OF EURASIAN AND INDO-AUSTRALIAN PLATES

NEPAL: A NATION OF 27.8 MILLION

LOCATION

• The quake's epicenter was 80 kilometers (50 miles) northwest of Kathmandu, and it had a depth of only 11 kilometers (7 miles), which is considered shallow in geological terms.

This earthquake, the worst quake to hit Nepal (a poor South Asian

nation) since 1934, collapsed buildings and houses,

leveled centuries-old temples and triggered avalanches in the

Himalayas.

KATHMANDU, THE CAPITAL, DEVASTATED

The Kathmandu Valley is densely populated with nearly 2.5 million people,

and the quality of building construction is often poor

KATHMANDU SKYLINE

TECTONIC DEFORMATION

EARTHQUAKE

TSUNAMI

GROUND

SHAKING

FAULT RUPTURE

FOUNDATION FAILURE

SITE AMPLIFICATION

LIQUEFACTION

LANDSLIDES

AFTERSHOCKS

SEICHE

DAMAGE/LOSSDAMAGE/LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/LOSSDAMAGE/LOSS

SIZE, LOCATION, AND DEPTH AFFECT DAMAGE

• The quake's hypocenter was only 11 kilometers (7 miles) --- The bigger, shallower, and closer the quake is, the more destructive it usually is.

• Witnesses said the trembling and swaying of the earth went on for several minutes.

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING

EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

SOIL AMPLIFICATION

PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND

FAILURE)

IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN

FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF UTILITIES

LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

INATTENTION TO NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

GLOBAL “DISASTER

LABORATORIES”

GLOBAL “DISASTER

LABORATORIES”

INITIAL REPORTS:AT LEAST 480 PEOPLE IN 4 COUNTRIES (NEPAL, INDIA,

TIBET, BANGLADESH) KILLED; MANY INJURED;

POSSIBLY MANY TRAPPED UNDER RUBBLE

DAMAGE

SEARCH AND RESCUE

A COMPARISON WITH OTHER DEVASTATING

EARTHQUAKES (in terms of casualties)

DECEMBNER 1920 HAIYUAN, CHINA EARTHQUAKE

• DEATH TOLL ESTIMATED AT 273,400.

SEPTEMBER 1923 GREAT KANTO EARTHQUAKE: JAPAN

• DEATH TOLL ESTIMATED AT 142,000.

JULY 1976 TANGSHAN, CHINA EARTHQUAKE

• DEATH TOLL ESTIMATED AT 242,000 TO 655,000.

EXAMPLE: 240,000 DEAD AFTER “BULLS-EYE” EARTHQUAKE

EXAMPLE: 240,000 DEAD AFTER “BULLS-EYE” EARTHQUAKE

• TANGSHAN, CHINA (1976) EARTHQUAKE: The impossible situation; too late for a race against time” to save lives and protect property.

• TANGSHAN, CHINA (1976) EARTHQUAKE: The impossible situation; too late for a race against time” to save lives and protect property.

EL ASNAM, ALGERIA; 3,500 DEAD (OCT. 10, 1980)

EXAMPLE: COLLAPSE OF HIGH-RISE APARTMENT BUILDINGS

EXAMPLE: COLLAPSE OF HIGH-RISE APARTMENT BUILDINGS

• MEXICO CITY AFTER 1985 EARTHQUAKE: Timely responses during a forty-eight hour and thirty day “race against time” save lives and protect property

• MEXICO CITY AFTER 1985 EARTHQUAKE: Timely responses during a forty-eight hour and thirty day “race against time” save lives and protect property

EXAMPLE: SEARCH AND RESCUE OF SURVIVORS IN COLLAPSED BLDGS.

EXAMPLE: SEARCH AND RESCUE OF SURVIVORS IN COLLAPSED BLDGS.

• TURKEY (1999) KOCALEI EARTH-QUAKE):

• Timely responses during a forty-eight hour “race against time” to save lives and protect property

• TURKEY (1999) KOCALEI EARTH-QUAKE):

• Timely responses during a forty-eight hour “race against time” to save lives and protect property

EXAMPLE: GUJARAT, INDIA 20,800 DEAD (JAN 26, 2001) EXAMPLE: GUJARAT, INDIA 20,800 DEAD (JAN 26, 2001)

BOUMERDES, ALGERIA; 2,226 DEAD (MAY 21, 2003)

DECEMBER 2004 EARTH-QUAKE/TSUNAMI: INDONESIA

• DEATH TOLL ESTIMATED AT 280,000.

EXAMPLE: 230,000 DEAD AFTER EARTHQUAKE/TSUNAMI

EXAMPLE: 230,000 DEAD AFTER EARTHQUAKE/TSUNAMI

• INDONESIA (2004): The impossible situation; too late for a race against time” to save lives and protect property.

• INDONESIA (2004): The impossible situation; too late for a race against time” to save lives and protect property.

MAY 2008 EARTHQUAKE: SICHUAN PROVINCE, CHINA

• DEATH TOLL ESTIMATED AT 88,000.

EXAMPLE: 88,000 DEAD AS RESULT OF NON-ENGINEERED BUILDINGS

EXAMPLE: 88,000 DEAD AS RESULT OF NON-ENGINEERED BUILDINGS

• CHINA (MAY 2008):

• The impossible situation; too late for a race against time” to save lives and protect property.

• CHINA (MAY 2008):

• The impossible situation; too late for a race against time” to save lives and protect property.

JANUARY 2012 HAITI EARTHQUAKE

• DEATH TOLL ESTIMATED AT 220,000.

EXAMPLE: 220,000 DEAD AS RESULT OF NON-ENGINEERED BUILDINGS

EXAMPLE: 220,000 DEAD AS RESULT OF NON-ENGINEERED BUILDINGS

• HAITI (2010):

• The impossible situation; too late for a race against time” to save lives and protect property.

• HAITI (2010):

• The impossible situation; too late for a race against time” to save lives and protect property.

EXAMPLE: A TENT CITY FOR SURVIVORS AFTER AN EARTHQUAKE

EXAMPLE: A TENT CITY FOR SURVIVORS AFTER AN EARTHQUAKE

• HAITI (2010): Timely temporary housing during a thirty day “race against time” to save lives and protect property

• HAITI (2010): Timely temporary housing during a thirty day “race against time” to save lives and protect property

EXAMPLE: SURPRISE! DEBRIS FROM JAPAN’S TSUNAMI NOW IN USA

EXAMPLE: SURPRISE! DEBRIS FROM JAPAN’S TSUNAMI NOW IN USA

• SENDAI, JAPAN AFTER THE MARCH 2011 EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI: What will happen to the radioactive debris?

• SENDAI, JAPAN AFTER THE MARCH 2011 EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI: What will happen to the radioactive debris?

LESSON: THE KNOWLEDGE AND TIMING OF ANTICIPATORY ACTIONS IS VITAL

• The people who know: 1) what to expect (e.g., strong ground motion, soil effects, tsunami wave run up, ground failure), 2) where and when they will happen, and 3) what they should (and should not) do to prepare for them will survive.

LESSON: TIMELY, REALISTIC DISASTER SCENARIOS SAVE LIVES

• The people who have timely, realistic, advance information that facilitates reduction of vulnerabilities, and hence the risks associated with strong ground shaking, tsunami wave run up, and ground failure will survive.

LESSON: EMERGENCY RESPONSE SAVES LIVES

• The “Uncontrollable and Unthinkable” events will always hinder the timing of emergency response operations, especially the search and rescue operations that are limited to “the golden 48 hours.”

LESSON: EMERGENCY MEDICAL PREPAREDNESS SAVES LIVES

• The local community’s capacity for emergency health care (i,e., coping with damaged hospitals and medical facilities, lack of clean drinking water, food, and medicine, and high levels of morbidity and mortality) is vital for survival.

LESSON: EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERED BUILDINGS SAVE LIVES

• Buildings engineered to withstand the risks from an earthquake’s strong ground shaking and ground failure that cause damage, collapse, and loss of function, is vital for protecting occupants and users from death and injury.

LESSON: THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY ALWAYS PROVIDES AID

• The International Community provides millions to billions of dollars in relief to help “pick up the pieces, ” but this strategy is not enough by itself to ensure earthquake disaster resilience.

FACTMOST OF THE 200 + NATIONS

NEED EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE POLICIES THAT ARE BASED ON LESSONS LEARNED

FROM PAST EARTHQUAKE DISASTER LABORATORIES

YOUR YOUR

COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY

YOUR YOUR

COMMUNITYCOMMUNITYDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

•MONITORING•HAZARD MAPS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE

•PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•EM RESPONSE•RECOSTRUCTION AND RECOVERY

EARTHQUAKE DISASTER EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE

PILLARS OF EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE

Preparedness

Protection: Adoption and Implementation of a Modern Earthquake Engineering Building Code

and Lifeline Standards

Prevention: Land Use Planning and Base Isolation

PILLARS OF EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE (continued)

Monitoring

Realistic Earthquake Disaster Scenarios

Timely Emergency Response (including search and Rescue and Emergency Medical Services)

Cost-Effective Recovery and Reconstruction

THE CHALLENGE:

CHANGING EXISTING POLICIES:

CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PROGRAMS, PARTNERS AND PEOPLE UNTIL YOU HAVE CREATED THE KINDS OF TURNING POINTS NEEDED FOR MOVING TOWARDS EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE

AN UNDER-UTILIZED GLOBAL STRATEGY

To Create Turning Points for Earthquake Disaster Resilience

USING EDUCATIONAL SURGES CONTAINING THE PAST AND PRESENT LESSONS TO FOSTER

AND ACCELERATE POLICY CHANGES

MOVING TOWARDS THE MUST-HAPPEN GLOBAL STRATEGY

To Achieve Earthquake Disaster Resilience

INTEGRATION OF SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS WITH POLITICAL

SOLUTIONS IN EVERY NATION FOR REALISTIC POLICIES ON PREPAREDNESS,

PROTECTION, DISASTER SCENARIOS, EMERGENCY RESPONSE,

RECONSTRUCTION, AND RECOVERY