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THE LOCAL VIEW
HOW OTHERS SEE US
SoNV HAS AVERAGE DEVELOPMENT & REDEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES2015 Metro Perspective: Top 10 Metros for Development/Redevelopment: Opportunities + Las Vegas MSA (of 60 Largest Metros)
Source: Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2015 ULI-PwC Survey.
1Houston 4.62 Weak
2Dallas/Fort Worth 4.24 Declining
3San Jose 4.20 Average
4Seattle 4.19 Improving
5New Orleans 4.17 Strong
6New York—Brooklyn 4.15
7Denver 4.14
8San Francisco 4.09
9Nashville 4.06
10Minneapolis/St. Paul 4.05
57Las Vegas 3.1758Milwaukee 3.1759Spokane 3.17
60Birmingham 3.17
Based on survey of 1,400 industry leaders.
SoNV LAGS IN PROJECTED ECONOMIC STRENGTHAMONG WESTERN METROS2015 Strength of Economy Scores (Out of 5): Local Outlook: West Region
Source: Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2015 ULI-PwC Survey.
1 2 3 4 5Weak Declining Average Improving Strong
Based on survey of 1,400 industry leaders.
THE REALITY: SOUTHERN NEVADA ECONOMY
NEVADA JOB RECOVERY FROM GREAT RECESSION AFTER 91 MONTHSNevada Recession Recoveries: 1948-Present
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
Comparison of Recession Job Growth Recoveries% Job Losses Relative to Peak Employment Month1948 1953 1957 1960 1969 1974 1980
1981 1990 2001 2007 US 2007
Number of Months After Peak Employment
RECOVERY = SOMEWHAT MIXED…
Rank Among 60 Largest US Metros: 2000-2013
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, *RGMP 2001-2013.
Population Change (#) #10
Population Growth (%) #3
Employment Change (#) #10
Employment Growth (%) #5
Real GMP* Change (#) #33
Real GMP* Growth (%) #25
LAS VEGAS REAL GMP GROWTH IMPROVING COMING OUT OF GREAT RECESSIONLas Vegas Real GMP Forecast: 2014-2015
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, RCG Economics
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201565,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
90,000
95,000
100,000
105,000
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Real Gross Metro Product % Change
Mill
ions
of C
hain
ed 2
009
Dolla
rs
TAXABLE SALES NEARING ALL-TIME HG, CONTINUES TO FUEL LAS VEGAS ECONOMYClark County Taxable Retail Sales: Nov-04 to Nov-14
Source: Nevada Department of Taxation
$1,500,000,000.0
$2,000,000,000.0
$2,500,000,000.0
$3,000,000,000.0
$3,500,000,000.0
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
CC Taxable SalesYOY Chg.
Bill
ions
Nov-14: $3.01B
Nov-14: 8.1%
THE REALITY: SOUTHERN NEVADA POPULATION AND JOBS
LAS VEGAS SKILLED WORKER POOL HAS BOOMED SINCE 2000Las Vegas MSA High-Skill Population Growth (% Change): 2000-2013
Source: Census Bureau
MSABach. Degree+
Pop. Growth RankTotal Pop.
Growth RankCharlotte, NC 102% 1 35% 5Grand Rapids, MI 93% 2 9% 33Las Vegas 91% 3 45% 3Austin, TX 80% 4 49% 2Raleigh, NC 79% 5 51% 1Riverside, CA 74% 6 34% 8Nashville, TN 72% 7 27% 12Orlando, FL 66% 8 37% 4San Antonio 66% 9 32% 9Phoenix 63% 10 34% 6
JOB GROWTH HURT IN ‘01 RECESSION BUT CRIPPLED BY GREAT RECESSIONLas Vegas MSA Employment vs U.S. Employment (% Change): Dec. 1995 – Dec. 2014
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Dec-95
Dec-96
Dec-97
Dec-98
Dec-99
Dec-00
Dec-01
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
Las Vegas USA
GREAT RECESSION SEVERELY REDUCED POPULATION GROWTH, NOW RECOVERINGClark County Population vs U.S. Population (% Change): 1981-2013
Source: World Bank, Clark County Comprehensive Planning
19811983
19851987
19891991
19931995
19971999
20012003
20052007
20092011
2013-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Las Vegas Years Las Vegas Lost Jobs USA
NEVADA JOBS BOUNCED BACK BIG IN 2013
Nevada Employment vs Rest of U.S. (% Change): 2013
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Fastest Growing States
1-YR Growth Rate
Slowest Growing States
1-YR Growth Rate
North Dakota 3.7% Rhode Island 0.7%Nevada 3.4% Arkansas 0.6%Florida 2.8% DC 0.6%Oregon 2.8% Pennsylvania 0.5%Utah 2.8% New Jersey 0.5%Texas 2.7% South Dakota 0.4%Colorado 2.7% Vermont 0.3%California 2.6% Virginia 0.3%South Carolina 2.5% West Virginia 0.1%Delaware 2.4% New Mexico -0.2%
“HEADLINE” UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IMPROVING BUT U-6 RATE STILL TOO HGNevada U-3 & U-6 Unemployment Rates: Q4-2009 to Q4 2014
Note: Quarterly figures are rolling averages of the 4 quarters ending in the noted quarter. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2009q4
2010q1
2010q2
2010q3
2010q4
2011q1
2011q2
2011q3
2011q4
2012q1
2012q2
2012q3
2012q4
2013q1
2013q2
2013q3
2013q4
2014q1
2014q2
2014q3
2014q40.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
11.3
12.413.5
13.814.4
14.2
13.6
13.5
13.112.7
12.311.9
11.010.8
10.49.7
9.89.4
8.88.3
7.7
19.2
20.421.5
22.3 23.6
23.7
23.3
23.3
22.722.3
22.121.4
20.319.6
19.018.1
18.117.4
16.215.9 15.3
U3 U6
Perc
ent
(%)
WAGES, AFTER ADJUSTING FOR INFLATION, REMAIN STAGNANTLas Vegas MSA Average Weekly Earnings: Dec. 2008 to Dec. 2014
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
$550
$600
$650
$700
$750
Dec-14 Nominal: $700
Nominal Avg. Weekly Earnings
Inflation-Adjusted (2007$) Avg. Weekly Earnings Dec-14 Real: $622
THE REALITY: SOUTHERN NEVADA GAMING & TOURISM
RevPAR RECOVERING SLOWLY FROM RECESSION BUT BACK UP OVER $100Las Vegas Valley Hotel Revenue per Available Room: Dec. 2004 to Dec. 2014
Source: Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority
Dec-04
Apr-05
Aug-05
Dec-05
Apr-06
Aug-06
Dec-06
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Feb-10
Jun-10
Oct-10
Feb-11
Jun-11
Oct-11
Feb-12
Jul-1
2
Nov-12
Mar-1
3Ju
l-13
Nov-13
Mar-1
4Ju
l-14
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
Nov-14: $100.80
VISITOR VOLUME AT HIGHEST LEVELS EVER & CONTINUES TO RISELas Vegas Valley Visitor Volume: Dec. 2004 to Dec. 2014
Source: Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority
2,900,000.0
3,000,000.0
3,100,000.0
3,200,000.0
3,300,000.0
3,400,000.0
3,500,000.0
Dec-14: 3.43M
GAMING REVENUE INCREASING DUE TO BACCARAT; NET BACCARAT STAGNANTClark County Gaming Revenue: Dec. 2004 to Dec. 2014
Source: Nevada Gaming Control Board
$600,000,000
$650,000,000
$700,000,000
$750,000,000
$800,000,000
$850,000,000
$900,000,000
$950,000,000Total Gaming RevenueNet Baccarat
Dec-14 With Bacc.: 796.2
Dec-14 net Bacc.: 671.9M
HENDERSON: 2015 & BEYOND
HENDERSON MAINTAINS A GOOD REPUTATION FOR LIVABILITYHenderson & Las Vegas MSA Info: 2014
Sources: Census Bureau, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Clark County Comprehensive Planning
6.0%6.2%6.4%6.6%6.8%7.0%
6.4%
6.9%
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
13% of LV MSA
0
400,000
800,000
1,200,000
15% of LV MSA
270,811
2,062,253
142,893
984,228
Fun Facts:
- 5th Safest City in US in 2012 (Most recent FBI crime data)
- Home to not one but two NSHE schools: College of So. Nevada-Henderson Campus & Nevada State College
HENDERSON RESIDENTS OLDER, WEALTHIER THAN THOSE IN LAS VEGAS MSAHenderson Demographic Facts: 2014
Source: Nielsen Claritas
Relative to Las Vegas MSA, Henderson residents/workers are more likely…
• To be 55 years old and older, less likely to be under 35• To be Caucasian, less likely to be a minority• To have a higher education degree
• To have a higher income• To be self-employed or government workers• To live nearby workplace• To own multiple vehicles
• To own their homes• To live in Single Family Homes & Townhouses• To have smaller homes
HENDERSON RESIDENTS HAVE HIGHER INCOMES THAN LV METRO AVERAGEHenderson & Las Vegas MSA Effective Buying Income: 2014
Median EBI Average EBI$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$48,560
$63,796
$41,576
$53,528
Henderson
Las Vegas MSA
Source: Nielsen Claritas
HENDERSON DOMINATED BY OFFICE & SERVICE INDUSTRIESHenderson 5 Largest Employment Sectors: 2014
Source: EMSI
Transportation and Material Moving Occupations
Personal Care and Service Occupations
Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations
Sales and Related Occupations
Office and Administrative Support Occupations
5,068
6,641
11,574
12,480
14,851
HENDERSON SPECIALIZES IN SEVERAL SECTORS Henderson Employment Sectors, as % of Las Vegas MSA: 2014
Source: EMSI
Sales and Related Occupations
Production Occupations
Healthcare Support Occupations
Computer and Mathematical Occupations
Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations
11% 12% 13% 14%
11.7%
12.1%
12.7%
12.8%
12.9%
NEVADA GOED TARGETING 9 INDUSTRIES FOR STATE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTNevada’s Nine Target Industries
1. Aerospace and Defense
2. Agriculture
3. Business IT Ecosystems
4. Clean Energy
5. Health and Medical Services
6. Logistics and Operations
7. Manufacturing
8. Mining
9. Tourism, Gaming, and Entertainment
HENDERSON STEM JOBS TODAY DOMINATED BY REGISTERED NURSESHenderson Top 10 STEM Occupations, by Jobs: 2014
Source: EMSI
Computer Programmers
Computer Occupations, All Other
Dental Hygienists
Dentists, General
Computer User Support Specialists
Pharmacists
Computer Systems Analysts
Software Developers, Applications
Pharmacy Technicians
Registered Nurses
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400
182
183
183
191
211
218
227
241
264
1,177
RECENT HENDERSON STEM JOBS GROWTH STRONGHenderson 5 Fastest Growing Employment Sectors, by % Growth: 2014
Source: EMSI
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupa-tions
Healthcare Support Occupations
Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations
Education, Training, and Library Occupations
Computer and Mathematical Occupations
11.7%
13.4%
13.7%
15.5%
17.0%
GROWTH IN TARGETED SECTOR STEM JOBS TO OUTPACE GENERAL JOB GROWTH IN HENDERSONProjected STEM Growth in Henderson Major* Target Industries: 2014-2020
* Note: Industries with at least 200 workers. Source: EMSI
Business IT Ecosystems Health and Medical Services Manufacturing0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1,064
4,382
240
1,240
4,892
274
2014 STEM Jobs
2020 STEM Jobs
THE REALITY: HENDERSON REAL ESTATE MARKETS
INDUSTRIAL REAL ESTATE THRIVING IN HENDERSON; OFFICE, RETAIL LAG VALLEYCommercial Real Estate Vacancy Rates: Q3 2014
* Note: Industries with at least 200 workers. Source: EMSI
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Office Industrial Retail LV Office LV IndustrialLV Retail
RESURGENCE IN INDUSTRIAL SPACE LED BY WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTIONIndustrial Vacancy Rates, by Product: Q3 2014
Source: RCG Economics
All Prod. WH/Distrib. Light Distrib. Light Ind. Incub. R&D / Flex0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
LV ValleyHenderson
CLASS A VACANCIES STILL CHALLENGING HENDERSON OFFICE MARKET
Office Vacancy Rates, by Product: Q3 2014
Source: RCG Economics
All Prod. Class A Class B Class C Medical10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
LV ValleyHenderson
LOOKING FORWARD
Three Rules of Forecasting
If you give a number, don’t give a date.
If you give a date, don’t give a number.
If you get it right, don’t look surprised.
– Anonymous
YESTERDAY, TODAY & TOMORROW IN PICTURES
WHILE 2015 DEFINITELY WON’T BE ANOTHER 2004 . . .
IT WON’T BE ANOTHER 2008, EITHER . . .
IT WON’T EVEN BE ANOTHER 2009 – 2013 . . .
EVEN THOUGH STILL A BIT WOBBLY, THE RECOVERY WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE HOLD IN 2015
Fed Policy Corporate Profits Gas Prices Resort Industry
Health Recovering RE
market Healthy Job Growth Population Growth Economic
Development
rcg1.com
702.967.3188
hightowerlasvegas.com
702.567.5100
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