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THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT
Stephen E. Schwartz
Atmospheric Sciences Division
CSSP Lecture
July 30, 2002
http://www.ecd.bnl.gov/steve/schwartz.html
370360350340330320310
20001990198019701960
C. D. Keeling
Year
CO
2 co
ncen
trat
ion
(ppm
)
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Law Dome Adelie LandSipleSouth Pole
Mauna Loa Hawaii
ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE IS INCREASING
Global carbon dioxide concentration over the last thousand years
Polar ice cores
Mann et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 1999
Northern Hemisphere temperature trend (1000-1998), fromtree-ring, coral, and ice-core proxy records As calibrated byinstrumental measurements.
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000YEAR
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0T
EM
PE
RA
TU
RE
AN
OM
ALY
(o C
)
Reconstruction (AD 1000-1980)Instrumental data (AD 1902-1998)Calibration period (AD 1902-1980) meanReconstruction (40 year smoothed)Linear trend (AD 1000-1850)
1998
THE TEMPERATURE'S RISING
ATMOSPHERICRADIATION
Energy per area pertime
Power per area
Unit:Watt per square meterW m-2
GLOBAL ENERGY BALANCEGlobal and annual average energy fluxes in watts per square meter
343
237
237≈ 254K
390≈288K
106 68
169
327 9016
Rayleigh
Aerosol
α = 31%
69% = 1 -α
1/4 S0 1/4 S0 =(1-α ) σT4
Shortwave Longwave
H2O, CO2, CH4...
Atmosphere
LS
Schwartz, 1996, modified from Ramanathan, 1987
RADIATIVE FORCING
A change in a component of the Earth’s radiationbudget.
GLOBAL CARBON DIOXIDE OVER THE INDUSTRIAL PERIOD
360
340
320
300
280
CO
2 M
ixin
g R
atio
, µm
ol/m
ol(a
ir) [p
pm]
200019501900185018001750
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
Forcing, W
m-2
370
360
350
340
330
320
31020001990198019701960
C. D. Keeling
ICE CORESSIPLE STATION ANTARCTICA
← MAUNA LOA HAWAII →
GREENHOUSE GAS MIXING RATIOS OVER THE INDUSTRIAL PERIOD
280
300
320
340
360
ppm
CO2
ice core
in situ↓ ← →
800
1200
1600
ppb
CH4
ice core insitu
Antarctica
Greenland↓ ↑
↑
↓
280
300
320
ppb
N2O
ice core in situ↓
↑
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 0
200
400
600
CFC-11CFC-12other trace gas forcingpp
t
CFCs
converted to CFC-11 amount
Hansen et al., PNAS. 1998
GREENHOUSE GAS FORCINGS OVER THE INDUSTRIAL PERIOD2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
For
cing
rel
ativ
e to
185
0, W
m-2
2000197519501925190018751850
Year
Total
CO2
CH4
N2OCFC-12CFC-11
Other
Data: GISS
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE TEMPERATURE TREND (1000-1998)From tree-ring, coral, and ice-core proxy records
As calibrated by instrumental measurements
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000YEAR
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
TE
MP
ER
AT
UR
E A
NO
MA
LY (
o C)
Reconstruction (AD 1000-1980)Instrumental data (AD 1902-1998)Calibration period (AD 1902-1980) meanReconstruction (40 year smoothed)Linear trend (AD 1000-1850)
1998
Mann et al., GRL, 1999
WHERE IS ALLTHIS CO
COMING FROM?2
WHO IS RESPONSIBLE?
HOW MUCH CARBONIS IN A GALLON
OF GASOLINE?
? ??
? ?
1 lb? 2 lbs?3 lbs!? 5 lbs!?!
?
All of this carbon goes into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide whenyou burn the gasoline in your car.
? ?
THE MOST EFFECTIVE WAY TO DOUBLE THE FUEL ECONOMY OF A CAR . . .
IS TO PUT TWO PEOPLE IN IT!
YOUR FAMILY’S CONTRIBUTION TO THEGREENHOUSE EFFECT
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0CO
2 em
issi
ons,
Pou
nds
(C)
per
KW
H
Coal Oil Natural gas Nuclear
CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS FROMELECTRIC ENERGY PRODUCTION
(1990's Technology)
Suffolk County 2001Legislation
How much does your household contribute?
A typical household using 1000 kilowatt hours of electricityper month is responsible for emission of 3 tons of carbona year in the form of carbon dioxide.
YOUR CONTRIBUTION TO THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT
0.49 lbs Carbon per KWH
At half a pound of carbon per KWH, the average household is responsible for emission of 500 pounds of carbon a month.
Breath of Fresh AirGaffney signs bill to limit greenhouse gas emissions
July 25, 2001By Emi Endo
Suffolk County ExecutiveRobert Gaffney yesterdaysigned into law a bill aimed atlimiting greenhouse gasemissions locally, althoughcritics questioned how much itwould actually reduce theemissions.
Beginning in March, for every100 megawatts of newgeneration added in thecounty, the emissions ratemust be reduced by 1 percent,
until a 20-percent reduction isachieved. Power plants thatexceed the standard would facefines.
During negotiations, Fisherraised the emissions limit fromless than 1,500 pounds to1,800 pounds of carbondioxide per megawatt hour andcut the penalties from $5 foreach ton of carbon dioxideemissions exceeding the limitto $2.
Suffolk County Limits CO Emissions2
0.49 lbs Carbon per KWH
WHERE DOES YOUR ELECTRIC ENERGYCOME FROM?
50
40
30
20
10
0
Per
cent
of T
otal
Coal Natural Gas Oil Hydro Geothermal Solar Wind Biomass Nuclear
SOURCES OF ELECTRIC ENERGYIN THE UNITED STATES
- - - FOSSIL FUEL - - -
- - - Less than 1 % each - - -
- - - - - Renewable - - - - -
Annual Total 3.71 Trillion KWH
On Long Island most electric energy derives from combustion of oil.
WHAT COUNTRY USES THE MOSTELECTRIC POWER?
WHAT COUNTRY USES THE MOSTELECTRIC POWER?
30
20
10
0
Per
cent
of T
otal
US China Russia Japan Germany
ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTIONTotal Global Consumption 382 Quadrillion BTU
Selected Countries
No surprise. It's the United States.
WHAT COUNTRY USES THE MOSTELECTRIC POWER PER CAPITA?
WHAT COUNTRY USES THE MOSTELECTRIC POWER PER CAPITA?
No surprise. It's the United States again.
400
300
200
100
0Mill
ion
BT
U p
er p
erso
n pe
r ye
ar
US China Russia Japan Germany
PER CAPITA ENERGY CONSUMPTIONSelected Countries
THE “BIBLE” OF CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH
Cambridge University Press, 2001
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