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The Future of Europe? Brexit and Beyond
14 March 2019
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council Webinar
Staffing Industry Analysts Product Overview
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council Webinar
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SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council Webinar
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Speakers:
14 March 2019
Moderator: Peter Reagan, CCWP & SOW Management Expert
Senior Director of Contingent Workforce Strategies & Research, SIA
▪ Fiona Coombe, CCWP, Director of Legal & Regulatory Research, SIA
▪ John Nurthen, Executive Director, Global Research
▪ Adam Pode, CCWP Director of Research (EMEA & APAC)
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
Agenda
▪ General Overview
▪ Polling Questions
▪ Legal Issues
Brexit
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
Brexit Pros and Cons
Issue Pros Cons
Membership Fee Net Saving of £8.5bn Loss of Free trade and inward investment
Trade Ability to strike own trade deals Loss of existing free trade with neighbours
Investment Freedom from EU rules and regulations
Threat to status of City of London
Sovereignty Control over domestic affairs Loss of global influence
Immigration Control over borders Positive economic benefit/skills shortages
Security Control over borders Weakened security relationship with EU
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
Brexit Countdown Timetable
Date Event
12 March May’s bespoke deal (with backstop “guarantees”) voted down
13 March Parliament votes to “kill” Hard Brexit
Today Decision on extension to Article 50 to 30 June…..or longer?
21-22 March EU Summit
29 March Brexit Day (if no extension to timetable granted)
After March 30 Post-Brexit trade talks (18 April if No-Deal)
30 April €7bn net contribution to EU budget 2019 due
23-26 May European Parliament elections
1 June UEFA Champions League Final
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
UK Growth Compared to G7
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Year on Year growth rates in percent; G7 countries
Source: Haver Analytics & IMF estimates
Fastest growth among G7
United Kingdom
Slowest growth among G7
Brexit Vote
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
Fifteen Year Impact on UK Growth
-10%-9%-8%-7%-6%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%
No Deal
Free Trade Agreement
Chequers deal with amendments (May's Deal)
Chequers plan
Norway-style membership of EEA
How Brexit will affect UK GDP 15 years after the UK leaves the EU?
Source: HM Treasury, November 2018
-9.3%
-6.7%
-3.9%
-2.5%
Note: Each scenario has a range of outcomes; these figures show the middle point assuming 100% reduction in migration
-1.4%
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
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No-Brexit Impact by Sector
25
15
5
-5
-15
-25
-35
Estimated sectoral impacts in percent deviation of value added from No-Brexit scenario
Source: IMF
FTA WTO
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
UK Staffing Market Short-Term Growth
Top 50 firms €6.1 billion
30.9
31.2
31.9
32.5
33.2
5%1%
2%
2% 2%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
29.5
30
30.5
31
31.5
32
32.5
33
33.5
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Market Size (£) Y/Y Growth
Source: Staffing Industry Analysts
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
Least Complex Contingent Markets in Europe
Source: Staffing Industry Analysts
Country
Staffing
market
maturity
Temporary
Agency Work
Regulations
Independent
Contractor
Usage
MSP/VMS
Maturity
Labour
Market
Efficiency
Employment
Regulation
Rigidity
Trade Union
Influence
Enforcing
Contracts
Pricing
Environment
Political
Stability
Human
Capital
United Kingdom 1 1 8 1 2 3 7 3 1 3 2 32 (30)
Switzerland 5 2 8 4 1 3 6 4 2 1 1 37 (37)
Netherlands 2 2 8 1 3 4 8 5 4 1 1 39 (41)
Ireland 7 2 8 1 4 3 5 6 3 3 2 44 (42)
Germany 4 5 9 3 3 5 8 2 5 2 1 47 (48)
Sweden 6 2 9 4 4 5 9 3 5 1 1 49 (48)
Hungary 4 4 9 5 6 5 3 2 2 6 4 50 (49)
Estonia 9 7 9 8 3 6 2 2 2 3 1 52 (54)
Austria 6 4 8 8 5 7 7 2 2 3 1 53 (49)
Belgium 4 5 8 4 5 4 10 4 4 3 2 53 (52)
Czech Republic 8 4 8 6 5 3 4 6 3 4 2 53 (52)
Denmark 8 3 9 5 3 4 10 3 5 2 1 53 (51)
Norway 7 8 9 5 3 8 7 2 2 1 1 53 (53)
2018 score
(2017 score)
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
Foreign Workers by Occupation
EU-27 nationals living in the UK UK citizens living in the EU-27
Source: Brexit Implications for Employment and Social Affairs, European Parliament
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
UK Net MigrationNet migration by citizenship, rolling year estimates (‘000’s)
Source: Office for National Statistics
Non EU figures adjusted for unusual pattern in student migration
By Type Annual Net Migration
EU Citizens
+74,000
Non-EU Citizens
+248,000
British Citizens
-49,000
TOTAL +273,000
To end June 2018
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
Definite job
Looking for work
Study
With or joining family
Non-EU arrivals EU arrivals
Reasons People Come to the UK
Source: Office for National Statistics
EU and Non-EU arrivals 2016
Most migrants from the EU come to the UK to work
Most migrants from outside the EU come to the UK to study
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
Immigration Perceptions
Does immigration of people from outside the EU evoke a positive or negative feeling for you?
Source: Eurobarometer, European Commission, Autumn 2018
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
Who Else Wants a Referendum?
Sources: Ipsos Mori, Bloomberg
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
Attitudes Towards EUIn general, what image does the EU conjure up for you?
Source: Eurobarometer, European Commission, Autumn 2018
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
Potential EU Leaving Names
BREXITIREXIT
ESPANOPE
ADIEU
DEPARTUGAL
SWEDONE
FINISH
SOURKROUT
CZECH-OUT
GREXIT
BYEGIUM
DITCH
DUMPMARK
ROAMANIA
WITHDRAWSAW
OUTSRIA
NULLGARIA
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
European Union Challenges
▪ Economic and societal changes
▪ Pending departure of the UK from the EU
▪ Democracy and rule-of-law concerns in Poland, Hungary and some other parts of Europe
▪ A resurgent Russia
▪ Heightened terrorism threat
Source: The European Union: Ongoing Challenges and Future Prospects, Congressional Research Service, December 2018
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
Source: YouGov
Most Important Issues Facing the EU
Immigration
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
Source: YouGov
Most Important Issues Facing the EU
Terrorism
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
Source: YouGov
Most Important Issues Facing the EU
EconomicSituation
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
Source: YouGov
Most Important Issues Facing the EU
Unemployment
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
European National Debt
0%
40%
80%
120%
160%
200%National debt in Q3 2018 in relation to GDP
Source: Eurostat
182%
133%125%
111% 100% 98%86%
69% 61% 59% 53%38% 35%
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
Unemployment
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Unemployment % across the EU
Source: Eurostat
3.2% 3.6% 3.7% 4.0%5.0% 5.3% 5.6% 6.2% 6.7%
8.8%10.3%
18.5%
14.1%
6.7% 6.5%7.8%
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
0
50
100
150
200
250
Column1
Skills Activation
Skills Development
European Skills Index
Source: European Skills Index Technical Report, Cedefop 2018
Composite indicator measuring the performance of EU skills systems
Skills Matching
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
EUR v USD 15 March 2014 to 14 March 2018
Source: www.xe.com
Brexit Vote
Weakened Euro
$1.13 @ 14/3/18
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
GBP v USD 15 March 2014 to 14 March 2018
Source: www.xe.com
Weakened Pound Sterling
Brexit Vote
£1.32 @ 11/3/18
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
Source: OECD, March 2019
Global Economy Facing Serious HeadwindsInterim Economic Outlook Projections
Year-on-year GDP%. Arrows indicate the direction of revisions since November 2018
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
Source: SIA European Employment Barometer
Declining Temporary Demand in EuropeYear-on-Year change in temporary employment EU-28
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
Source: Company Financial Results
Country Adecco Manpower Randstad
UK +1%* -4% +5%
France -1% -3% -4%
Germany -10%** -21% -7%
Italy +1% -5% -1%
Netherlands -15% +3%
Belgium +1% 0***
Q4 Revenue Trends by Country (Organically in constant currency and trading days adjusted)
*Including Ireland**Including Austria
***Including Luxembourg
-11%***
Declining Temporary Demand in Europe
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
Agenda
▪ General Overview
▪ Polling Questions
▪ Legal Issues
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
Polling Questions
Will your contingent workforce programme be better off, worse off or stay the same as a result of the following Brexit scenarios:
No-Deal Brexit:a. Better offb. Worse offc. No changed. Don’t know
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
Polling Questions
Will your contingent workforce programme be better off, worse off or stay the same as a result of the following Brexit scenarios:
Brexit with some kind of withdrawal agreement:a. Better offb. Worse offc. No changed. Don’t know
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
Polling Questions
Will your contingent workforce programme be better off, worse off or stay the same as a result of the following Brexit scenarios:
No Brexit:a. Better offb. Worse offc. No changed. Don’t know
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
Agenda
▪ General Overview
▪ Polling Questions
▪ Legal Issues
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
Brexit: Deal?▪ Scheduled leave date: Friday 29 March 2019 at 11pm
▪ Withdrawal Agreement “transition period” to 31 December 2020
– Free movement continues– UK can negotiate trade deals – NI to remain in customs union pending a “soft” border solution (the “backstop”)– Rights of workers in the EU and UK continue– Data protection rules are adequate– Recognition of professional qualifications and the right to carry on
recognised professions remains– Enforcement of contractual provisions and judgements is facilitated;– Public procurement rules and the validity of framework agreements
▪ Political declaration on future relationship
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
Brexit: No Deal?
▪ No transition period
- Visa-free travel ends on 29 March 2019
- Border checks and tariffs on goods applied
- Cross-border transfers of data will need additional security measures e.g. standard contractual clauses, to meet EU standard
- Workers will not have benefit of any new EU rights in UK
- Recognition of professional qualifications & background checks may be affected
- Validity and enforcement of contracts may be more problematic
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
Brexit: Immigration
▪ Up to Friday 29 March 2019 at 11pm– EEA workers can live and work in UK without restriction and apply for permanent
residence (PR) card (i.e. indefinite leave to remain) after 5 years (British Citizenship after 6 years)
▪ Deal - During Transition Period to 31 December 2020: – EU Settlement Scheme: From 30 March 2019 EEA workers with or without PR card
must apply for “settled status”
- Deadline for applications: 30 June 2021 for those who by 31 December 2020 have five years continuous residence in the UK
- Pre-settled status for anyone who arrives in UK before 31 December 2020 – they may apply for settled status after 5 years
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
Brexit: Immigration
▪ No Deal
– EEA citizens resident in the UK before 29/3/19 are protected by the EU Settlement Scheme but must apply by 31 December 2020
– EEA citizens arriving may travel freely and stay up to 3 months
– For 3+ months, EU citizens must apply for European Temporary Leave to Remain for up to 3 years and any non-EU family members must apply in advance for a family permit
– Irish nationals are excepted under the Common Travel Area
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
Post-Brexit: Immigration
▪ From 1 January 2021:
- Visas for EEA citizens to travel and work
- Immigration based on skills shortages;
- Removal of Tier 2 cap and resident labour market test; reduction in skills threshold for Tier 2; easier to change employers
- Restrictions on low-skilled workers (12m, specific countries only); reintroduction of agricultural workers scheme
- Extend Immigration Skills Charge £1000 per visa year to EU nationals
Source: Recommendations of Migration Advisory Committee Report
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
Post-Brexit: Workers Rights
▪ No reduction in UK workers’ rights based on EU directives: – Agency Worker Regulations, Working Time Regulations, Fixed-Term,
Part-Time
▪ Right to vote on adoption on new EU rights
▪ Consultation on future alignment with new EU directives
▪ UK: “Good Work” plan (April 2020)– Clarifying tax and employment status– Right to request indefinite contract after 12 months– Statement of terms on day one– Removal of “Swedish derogation” contracts giving agency workers exemption
from equal pay
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
Post-Brexit: Data Protection
▪ For UK-based businesses– EU (Withdrawal) Act 2018 (EUWA) retains the GDPR in UK law
– UK Government will make appropriate changes to the GDPR and Data Protection Act 2018 to ensure data privacy framework remains aligned
– UK will recognise adequacy arrangements for free flow of data to all EEA countries and EC recognised countries
▪ If selling goods or services to EEA consumers– Must appoint an EEA-based representative, subject to exceptions
– Inform data subjects of details of representative
– Contracts and consents may need updating
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
Post-Brexit: Data Protection
▪ For EEA-based businesses
– UK becomes a ‘third country’ and for data flows to be ‘adequate’ other mechanisms are necessary i.e. standard contractual clauses (SCC)
– Amend contracts and update privacy notices; update records
– Review consents to ensure there is agreement to transfer to a third country
– Review nominated Lead Supervisory Authority
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
Post-Brexit: Data Protection
▪ For data flows from UK to US
– “In order to receive personal data from the UK in reliance on the EU-U.S. Privacy Shield Framework, Privacy Shield participants must update their Privacy Shield commitments by the Applicable Date, depending on how the UK and the EU implement the withdrawal”
– Update public commitments re UK data flows
– Update any policies relating to such data flows e.g. privacy notice, HR policy
– Maintain records
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
Post-Brexit: Contracts etc.
▪ Review – Contractual commitments and termination rights– Pricing, tariffs and exchange rate mechanisms– Choice of jurisdiction– Data protection wording
▪ UK judgements will not be automatically enforceable in the EU
▪ EU trademarks and Community design rights will no longer have effect in the United Kingdom
▪ The UK will become a ‘third country’ for EU VAT purposes
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
IR35 Off-Payroll Working Rules Reform
▪ Consultation on reform to 28 May 2019
▪ From April 2020 amended off-payroll working rules apply to public sector and medium and large private sector businesses i.e. >50 employees; t/o >£10.2m; balance sheet total >£5.1m
▪ Client hirers must determine employment status of PSC (personal service company) workers
▪ Fee-payer to withhold tax and NICs on deemed employment income paid to PSC workers
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
IR35 Off-Payroll Working Reform Proposals
▪ Client must provide determination to person they contract with [and the off-payroll worker]
‒ By the start of the contract or before the worker starts work
▪ Party contracting with client [and off-payroll worker]has right to request reasons in writing within 31 days
▪ If not provided at all or within timescale, client is liable for income tax and NICs due
▪ Proposal for client-led status disagreement process
▪ CEST enhancements and guidance
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council
Summary
▪ Make plans for “No deal” and a softer exit based loosely around May’s deal
▪ All exit outcomes likely result in slower growth for UK economy – some worse than others
▪ Don’t expect changes in employment legislation
▪ Don’t be surprised if skills shortages worsen and agency fees increase
▪ Be vigilant and don’t overlook other non-Brexit challenges
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council Webinar
Time for Your Questions…
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council Webinar
Government Resources▪ Partnership Pack: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/partnership-pack-
preparing-for-a-no-deal-eu-exit▪ No Deal Notices: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/how-to-prepare-if-the-
uk-leaves-the-eu-with-no-dealSIA Resources▪ Brexit Implications for Employment:
https://www2.staffingindustry.com/eng/Research/Research-Reports/EMEA/Brexit-Implications-for-Employment
▪ Planning for Brexit: https://www2.staffingindustry.com/eng/Research/Research-Reports/EMEA/Planning-For-Brexit
▪ Quarterly Legal Updates: https://www2.staffingindustry.com/Research/Research-Reports/Legal-Compliance-and-Risk
Contact the SIA CWS Council team at enterpriseservices@staffingindustry.com
Useful Resources
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council Webinar
2019 SIA WEBINARS (subject to change)
DATE TITLE
Thursday, April 11, 2019 SOW and Services Procurement- A Guide to Success
Wednesday, May 15, 2019 IR35 Preparing for Change in the Private Sector
Thursday, June 06, 2019 Workforce Solutions Global Buyer Webinar APAC
Thursday, June 20, 2019 Developing a Best in Class Contingent Workforce Program
Wednesday, July 10, 2019 The Future of MSP/VMS What does success look like?
Thursday, August 08, 2019 Tested Strategies- SOW and Services Procurement
Wednesday, August 28, 2019 Background Checks, Immigration and H1B , How to Stay out of Hot Water
Wednesday, September 25, 2019 By the numbers: The best of SIA Research
Wednesday, October 23, 2019 Human Cloud, Artificial Intelligence and the bleeding edge of Talent!
Wednesday, November 13, 2019 Workforce Solutions Global Buyer Webinar APAC
Wednesday, December 04, 2019 2019 and the Year in Review
Tuesday, December 17, 2019 2020 and the Future of Talent
*Schedule and topics subject to change with notice
26-28 March 2019 | Royal Lancaster Hotel | London | @CWSSummit @SIAGigE
Join Us in London!Join your peers at these back-to-back European events created specifically for contingent workforce professionals. Workforce enterprise buyers will gather for the annual CWS Summit, followed by Collaboration in the Gig Economy where all members of the workforce solutions ecosystem join together to connect and optimise the talent supply chain.
Use discount code SIAEVENT and save £100. Register now at www.cwssummitwe.eu
Invest in Your Future. Today.CCWP is fast becoming the industry’s most sought after accreditation. It unifies a common language, and draws a road map for your continuous improvement in contingent workforce programmes. CCWP is designed for HR, procurement, MSP solutions providers and staffing providers.
Register Today!
View the full schedule of classes at:www.staffingindustry.com/certification
@SIACCWP #CCWP
Expand Your Expertise in SOW. Now.SOW Management Expert Class will help you:• Navigate the complexities of SOW• Increase the relevance of your
contingent workforce programme• Elevate you knowledge and career
Register Today!
View the full schedule of classes at:www.staffingindustry.com/certification
@SIACCWP #CCWP
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council Webinar
▪ Copies of the slides and a link to the audio recording will be distributed to all attendees within 48 hours following the webinar.
▪ A replay of this webinar will be available for our CWS Council and Premium Corporate members at: www.staffingindustry.com/webinars-buyer
SIA | Staffing Industry Analysts Contingent Workforce Strategies Council Webinar
Founded in 1989, SIA is the global advisor on staffing and workforce solutions. Our proprietary research covers all categories of employed and non-employed work including temporary staffing, independent contracting and other types of contingent labor. SIA’s independent and objective analysis provides insights into the services and suppliers operating in the workforce solutions ecosystem including staffing firms, managed service providers, recruitment process outsourcers, payrolling/compliance firms and talent acquisition technology specialists such as vendor management systems, online staffing platforms, crowdsourcing and online work services. We also provide training and accreditation with our unique Certified Contingent Workforce Professional (CCWP) program.
Known for our award-winning content, data, support tools, publications, executive conferences and events, we help both suppliersand buyers of workforce solutions make better-informed decisions that improve business results and minimize risk.As a division of the international business media company, Crain Communications Inc., SIA is headquartered in Mountain View, California, with offices in London, England.
For more information: www.staffingindustry.com
For global coverage across the workforce solutions ecosystem, follow us @SIAnalystsand connect via
About Staffing Industry Analysts (SIA)
PROPRIETARY DATA, DO NOT DISTRIBUTE OUTSIDE YOUR ORGANIZATION. Your company’s use of this report precludes distribution of its contents, in whole or in part, to other companies or individuals outside your organization in any form – electronic, written or verbal – without the express written permission of Staffing Industry Analysts. It is your organization’s responsibility to maintain and protect the confidentiality of this report.
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