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The End of Rick Perry
Office Hours
• When– Today- 11-2– Monday 10-2
• Doyle 226B
Learning Outcomes
• Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election.
• Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process
CAMPAIGN MISTAKES
Spending Time in New Hampshire
• He had no chance here
• He wasted Time and Money
• Unnecessary distractions
Punching Down
• Perry Believed that you never leave an attack unanswered
• No one attacks Ron Paul
• This was a novice mistake
Policy Mistakes
• The 26th Amendment
• The War in Iran
• Sonia Motomayor?
• Going after Bernanke
DEBATE MISTAKES
The Role of Debates
• A Chance to See All Candidates on the Same Stage
• Who is Advantaged?
• Who is disadvantaged?
• Criticisms
Perry’s Debate Problem
• Debates are not a big deal in Texas
• He didn’t debate Bill White in 2010
• He hated practicing and preparing for them
Perry’s First Debate (California)
• Started Strong
• Attacked on Many Fronts
• Withered out by the end
Debate Flubs
• Perry’s mouth would be scrutinized and publicized in a way that, as governor, he had never experienced.
• Often incoherent• Flip-Flopping Flop
The Impact of the Debates
• Usually Started strong and faltered
• By the 4th debate he had fallen 20 points and trailed Herman Cain
Oops
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kTNjhcyx7dM
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOUR CAMPAIGN CRUMBLES?
Fundraising Dries up
• An initial burst followed by nothing
• Mostly from Texas
• Perry did not want to fundraise.
Changing the Staff
• Perry was persuaded by unemployed Gingrich staffers
• They try to shake up the campaign by bringing in D.C. operatives
• The New People call the old People Texas Rubes and each point fingers.
The Invisible Primary ends
One Month Before Iowa
Rules of the Nominating Game
Just Like Vegas, Never play a game you don’t know how to play
Rules of the Game: Amassing Delegates
Rules of the Game: Primaries
• Work Like Mini-elections
• Much More common than in years past
Rules of the Game: Caucuses
• Held at a specific time and place
• May last for Hours
• They Feature a Different Kind of Electorate than primaries
Rules of the Game: Pledged Delegates
• Required to vote for their candidate
• More than 80% of all Delegates
• Republicans Rely more heavily on these
Rules of the Game: Allocation
• Winner Take All
• Proportional Representation
Rules of the Game: Unpledged Delegates
• Once the Norm, rather than the exception• RNC
• DNC PLEO’s– Reasons Why
– Historical Role
Rules of the Game: Frontloading
• The movement of state primaries and caucuses earlier and earlier in the campaign season
• The Impact of Frontloading
THE LESSONS OF 2008John McCain and the Republicans
Delegate Apportionment in 2008
The Democrats• More Delegates
• Proportional Representation
• Super Delegates
The Republicans• Fewer Delegates
• More winner-take-all states
The Advantage of the Long Democratic Campaign for Obama
• Scrutiny
• Kept him in the News
• Tested his leadership
• Made the party enthusiastic
How Mc Cain Wins Early: 2008
• Winner-take-all states
• The Early win is A blessing and a curse for McCain
Benefits of the Early McCain Victory
• Cost savings
• Refocus Campaign Strategy
• Avoids additional party infighting
Costs of the McCain victory
• Never shores up the Evangelicals
• Too reliant on unreliable independents
• Out of the news for 5 months
THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Obama Wins!
• No serious challenger
• He could focus on being President
• He didn’t have to spend money
THE 2012 REPUBLICAN NOMINATION
Frontloading and 2012
• Take a Page from the Democratic Playbook
• The GOP require more states use proportional representation
• Punish early movers
• They did not want an early nominee.
Frontloading and 2012
The First Four in 2012
• Iowa
• New Hampshire
• South Carolina
• Florida
These Rules Were Intended to Extend the Nomination, which it did…. But it also brought unintended consequences!
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