The Eastern Partnership ― concepts and dilemmas －

The Eastern Partnership― concepts and dilemmas －

Akio KOMORIDA Kanagawa University

1

Developments and difficulties for the EU

enlargement

deepening of integration

EuropeanUnion

2

European Neighbourhood Policy Eastern Partnership

six post-Soviet

republics

Euro-Mediterranean Partnership

Black Sea Synergy

3

History of the Eastern Partnership

2004 EU Enlargement to the East (8+2 new member countries) European Neighbourhood Policy

2007 initiative of Poland and Sweden

2009 inauguration of the Eastern Partnership under the Czech presidency

4

I. Democracy, good governance and stability Panel 1. integrated border management Panel 2. fight against corruption Panel 3. administrative reform

II. Economic integration and convergence with EU Panel 1. support for small and medium-sized enterprises Panel 2. support for trade Panel 3. protection of the environment and climate change

III. Energy security

IV. Contacts between people

Four thematic platforms of EaP

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“The Eastern Partnership was launched … in an effort by the EU and its Eastern European partners to help promote political and economic reforms and assist the countries to move closer to the EU. At its basis lies a shared commitment to international law and fundamental values, including democracy, the rule of law and respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms, as well as to market economy, sustainable development and good governance.”

(Eastern Partnership: A Roadmap to the autumn 2013 Summit)

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Meaning of “to move closer to the EU”

economic interests・ common

market・ financial transfer

political principles・ democracy・ rule of law・ human

rights

necessity of catch-up geopolitical concern

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Three levels of relationships

Ukr

Pol

Summit,meetings of

ministries etc.

Association Agreement etc.

EU 27 EaP 6

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Dilemma of the EaP (1)What is the strategic goal of EaP?

shared political will & effective instruments? differentiated approaches - inevitable

different positions (the government ／ the society) as to the EU as an optimal model of development as to the future EU membership (“European aspiration”)

to spread the EU standards

but difficult to give a clear word on the membership

the partner countries The EU

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Dilemma of the EaP (2)Between economic interests and political principles

but then

“the more for more” principleThe more partner country makes progress,

the more support it will receive from the EU.

Economic development or

potentials are not necessarily

accompanied by political reforms.

Which is more important,

economic interests or

political principles?10

Dilemmas of the EaP (3)How to deal with relationship with Russia?

＊ interested in the direction of developments of this region (post-soviet republics)＊ conflicts around “the parts”of some countries

＊ necessary to keep good relationship with Russia especially for Germany and France

Russia The EU

＊ straight choice between the EU and Russia - difficultthe partner countries

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EU-Ukraine relationship

1998 Partnership and Cooperation Agreement 2007 start of negotiations on of the new agreement2008 WTO membership start of negotiations on of Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) as a core element of the Association Agreement2009 inauguration of the Eastern Partnership2012 initialed the Association Agreement2013 Summit in Vilnius signing of the Association Agreement ?

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EU-Ukraine Association AgreementPreamble Common values : democracy, respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms, and rule of law European aspiration of Ukraine

Title I : General Principles

Title II : Political dialogue and reform, political association, cooperation and convergence in the field of foreign and security policy

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EU-Ukraine Association AgreementTitle III : Justice, Freedom and SecurityTitle IV: Trade and Trade-Related Matters Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA)Title V : Economic and sector cooperationTitle VI : Financial cooperation, with anti-fraud provisionsTitle VII : Institutional, general and final provisions EU-Ukraine Summit Association Council Association Committee Parliamentary Association Committee Civil Society Platform

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Will the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement be successfully signed?

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The EU has shelved the Association Agreement over the issue of Y. Tymoshenko.

Here the dilemmas of the Eastern Partnership are concentratedly expressed.

Poland as a country of “medium” size

population （ 2010 ）Seats at European

Parliament （ total 754 ）

Germany 81,644,000 99

France 62,962,000 74

United Kingdom 62,227,000 73

Italy 60,487,000 73

Spain 46,506,000 54

Poland 38,187,000 51

Rumania 21,444,000 33

Czech Republic 10,526,000 22

Hungary 10,003,000 22

Slovakia 5,431,000 　 13

Ukraine 45,858,000 　　　16

Poland’s Approaches to the EU

Eastern Partnership

Eastern Partnership the Eastern Partnership

・ skepticism toward German-French dominance ・ Europe of sovereign states ・ veto power in decision making process

・ cooperation with Germany and France　・ deeper European integration ・ incorporation of its own interest and experiences into the EU policy

Independence-oriented approach

Entering-the-mainstream approach

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What is Ukraine for Poland?

the eastern border of the EU

migrationfrom the East

between Poland and Russia

historical context “Is Polish-Ukrainian

reconciliation possible?”

Ukraine : the most advanced relationship with the EU Belarus : political difficulties / Polish minorities (3.1%)

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Territory of Polandfrom the interwar to the post-war period

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＊ Ukraine as a part of Poland (&Lithuania) before 1795＊ divided Ukraine in the interwar period＊ Ukrainians’ struggle for independence “bandits” or “heroes”?＊ post-war Poland before 1989 ethnic minorities within the country – invisible negative image of Ukrainians – maintained＊ after 1989 open discussions on Poland-Ukraine relationship including the problem of history direct contacts with Ukrainians mainly as migrant workers gradual change of attitude towards Ukrainians and Ukraine

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How do you define your relation to Ukrainians?(CBOS)

Jan-03

Jan-04

19

29

24

32

51

34

6

6

sympathyindifferenceantipathydifficult to answer

2004 .12

2003 .10

“Orange Revolution”

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“Is Polish-Ukrainian reconciliation possible?”(CBOS, May 2006)

13

64

16 25

decisively possiblerather possiblerather impossibledecisively impossibledifficult to answer

22

Is boycott of Euro 2012 in Ukraine correct or not?

(CBOS, May 2012)

516

3328

18

decisively correctrather correctrather incorrectdecisively incorrectdifficult to answer

23

21

56

81 14 decisively necessary

rather necessaryrather not necessarydecisively not necessarydifficult to answer

“Is it necessary for Poland to seek for tightening of relationship with the six post-soviet republics

within the framework of the EU?” (CBOS, June 2009)

24

9

60

252

4

decisively possiblerather possiblerather impossibledecisively impossibledifficult to answer

“Is Polish-Russian friendly relationship possible?” (CBOS, May 2006)

25