The Earth at night: ~85% alight by burning coal, oil, natural gas (DSMA satellite mosaic)

The Earth at night: ~85% alight by burning

coal, oil, natural gas (DSMA satellite mosaic)

Global emissions must peak and soon! (IPCC ‘01)

COCO22 Emissions and Concentrations: Emissions and Concentrations:The environment responds to The environment responds to concentrations; concentrations; aggressiveaggressiveemission reduction needs to begin quicklyemission reduction needs to begin quickly

IPCC

Stern Report (UK Government, 10/06)

Stabilizing emissions with existing technologies

1 GtC/yr

50 years

Total = 25 Gigatons carbon

A “solution” to the CO2 problem should provide at least one wedge.

Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 25 GtC in its first 50 years. This is 2.5 trillion dollars at $100/tC.

What Carbon Tax would enable alternatives??

Form of Energy Equivalent to $100/tC

Natural gas $1.50/1000 scfCrude oil $12/barrel

Coal $65/U.S. tonGasoline 25¢/gallon

(ethanol subsidy: 50¢/gallon) Electricity from coal 2.2¢/kWh

(wind and nuclear subsidies: 1.8 ¢/kWh)Electricity from natural gas 1.0¢/kWh

Today’s US energy system~ $150 Billion/yr (~1% of GDP)$100/tonC ~current EU carbon trading

market price

Zero-Carbon Renewable Energy Sources*Hydroelectricity: Cheap but limited, established *Wind, Tidal: Roughly cost effective, also limited *Geothermal: Limited, difficult, needs new ideas for converting low-grade heat.

*Ocean Thermal: Very diffuse

*Solar: Unlimited, still too expensive, but very promising (low grade solar heat already)

.

US Dept of Energy Research Plan

Hydrogen from Natural GasAlthough hydrogen from natural gas is certainly a viable near-term

option, it is not viewed by DOE as a long-term solution because it does not help solve the green house gas (GHG) or energy security issues.

Hydrogen from CoalResearch is focused on advancing the technologies needed to produce hydrogen from coal-derived synthesis gas and to build and operate a

zero emissions, high-efficiency co-production power plant that will produce hydrogen from coal along with electricity.

Hydrogen from Nuclear PowerResearch is focused on developing the commercial-scale production of

hydrogen using heat from a nuclear energy system.

Hydrogen from Renewable ResourcesResearch is focused on developing advanced technologies for

producing hydrogen from domestic renewable energy resources that minimize environmental impacts..

Nuclear Energy?

Fission: Resource Size? Ocean water vs. Breeder

Waste Disposal Security, Proliferation Issues Cost Issues

Fusion (in 50 years??) Unlimited Supply Technology hurdles Much smaller waste issues

Nuclear power post Chernobyl?

UK nuclear power plants

Wind power is now: growing ~30% per year,

cost ~5 cents per kWh (competitive).

• Wind array in Gorgonia, California

An array of wind turbines

along a ridge

• Wind turbines on an Ohio farm

Off-shore wind farms? Cape Cod controversy

Irish wind farm

UK wind farm

• Five megawatt wind turbine (Germany)

• Proposed coastal array (Phillipines)

Wind turbines in China

Wind farm in India

• Solar roof panels (Germany)

• Cost of solar dropping, but still very high

• Focussing solar energy

Passive solar: hospital hot water Lindau, Germany

• Solar powered water pump (Thailand)

Can we travel without oil?

• Yes, Toto, we are in Kansas (crop circles)

Flex-fuel vehicles

ethanol

Brazilian President ‘Lula’ running on ethanol.

Sugar cane: Brazil achieves energy independence.

Arnold leads the way to a clean energy future

“I ask you to set to motion the means to free ourselves from oil and from

OPEC. I ask you to encourage the free market to overthrow

the old order. California has the muscle to bring

about such change. I say--USE IT!

Initiative 937

In 2006,

Washington

voted YES for

a cleaner

energy future

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

~80 % reduction needed to stabilize climate

Washington CO2 emissions

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

CO2 (million tons/year)

WA 2000WA 2000WA 2000WA 2000 W/sitedW/sited plantsplantsW/sitedW/sited plantsplants

Mc/LiebMc/Lieb 20102010Mc/LiebMc/Lieb 20102010

KyotoKyoto2008-122008-12 KyotoKyoto2008-122008-12

StabilizationStabilizationStabilizationStabilization

More than 360 US cities (~55 million people) have joined Seattle Mayor Nichols’climate challenge to meet Kyoto Protocol’s emission reductions (7%

below 1990 levels by 2012)

Transportation, transportation, transportation

Transport

27%

Buildings

9%

Industry

18%

Electricity

35%

Ag &

Waste

8%

Transport

51%

Buildings

11%

Industry

10%

Electricity

17%

Ag, For, &

Waste

11%

Transportation accounts for a disproportionateshare of Washington’s CO2 emissions(but electricity may grow rapidly with new fossil fueledresources)

Transportation accounts for a disproportionateTransportation accounts for a disproportionateshare of Washingtonshare of Washington’’s COs CO22 emissions emissions(but electricity may grow rapidly with new fossil fueled(but electricity may grow rapidly with new fossil fueledresources)resources)

CO2 emissions by sectorCOCO22 emissions by sector emissions by sector

U.S.U.S.U.S. Puget Sound (WA is similar)Puget SoundPuget Sound (WA is similar) (WA is similar)

Look familiar?

For longer distances: The Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle

You can now drive the first 40 miles on the overnight charge (no gas), with overall fuel efficiency increasing to more than 100 mpg ! www.calcars.org

GM introduces the Chevy VOLT (son of EV-1)

Take the bus more often

Boulder: $50/yr pass

Improve ride sharing cooperatives

The one horse-powered car