The Demography of Religious Change in the West Eric Kaufmann Birkbeck College, University of London...

The Demography of Religious Change in the West

Eric Kaufmann Birkbeck College, University of London

e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk

Religion in the West

• Loss through secularization• Moderation of slide by resistant remnant,

notably fundamentalists• Gain through demography

Demography and Religion

• Indirect: poor, less educated and rural people have more children than urban, wealthy, educated

• Direct: Religious have more children than seculars; fundamentalists more than moderates

The Religious Tropics: Total Fertility Rates by Country, 2008

Source: CIA World Fact Book 2008

Indirect Effect: Expansion of Islam; Conversion Effect: Decline of Animists; Both: Decline of Seculars

Past and Projected Global Religious Affiliation (World Religious Database)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Christian Muslim Hindu Nonreligious +Atheist

Other

1900

1970

2000

2025

-16%

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%-1.1%

-10.7%

-14.4%

-5.2%

Decline in Numbers of White British and Christians,

England and London, 2001-2011

-16%

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%-1.1%

-10.7%

-14.4%

-5.2%

Decline in Numbers of White British and Christians,

England and London, 2001-2011

Direct Effect: Religiosity and Fertility in Europe and USA

TFR

Austria 2001 Switzerland 2000

Roman Catholics 1.32 1.41

Protestants 1.21 1.35Muslims 2.34 2.44Others 1.44 1.74Without 0.86 1.11Total 1.33 1.5

TFR Wrong Not wrong DiffHomosexuality 2.5 1.98 0.52Abortion 2.47 1.83 0.64

United States, 2006 (GSS)

Source: Goujon et al. 2006

Projected Nonreligious Population of Austria to 2051, 36 Scenarios

Similar Dynamics in USA

Religion in the West

• Loss through secularization• Moderation of slide by resistant remnant• Gain through demography

– Indirect through global migration– Direct, through higher fertility

• Fundamentalists maximize gains, minimize losses