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The Conventions and the Campaign
3/7/2013
Clearly Stated Learning Objectives
• Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process
• Discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the presidential nominating system in the context of the 2012 election
Office Hours
• Today 11-2
• 10-11 on Friday
REFORMING THE NOMINATING SYSTEM
The Major impact of the Modern Primary
• Vastly diminished role for party elites
• Potential for unacceptable candidates
• Greater reliance on horse race coverage
Reforms: A Regional Primary
• Advantages
• Disadvantages
Reforms: A National Primary
• Advantages
• Disadvantages
Reforms: The Status Quo
• The Parties are risk-averse
• States like their privileged position
• Front-loading has made a de facto national primary
The Three Periods of the Campaign
• The Summer
• The Conventions to the First Debate
• The Final Month
SUMMER TO THE CONVENTIONSFirst Period
ETCH-A-SKETCH
What the Primaries Did to Romney
• All “Unromneys were to his political right
• In 2008, he was beaten from the right
• He became “severely conservative”
Romney moved Right on
• Immigration
• Abortion
• Health Care
“Everything changes,” “It’s almost like an Etch A Sketch. You can try to shake
it up and start all over again.”
Romney’s real Problem
• He is Broke
• He cannot Tap into money until after the nomination
• Obama has Plenty of stored up cash.
OBAMA IN THE SUMMER
2012 was no 2008
2008• He had faced the Clinton
War Machine
• There was a sense of something historic
• A message of Hope and Change
2012• Not as ambitious or
inspiring
• Facing a bad economy that he was supposed to fix
• Facing the real possibility of being outspent
The Economy
• FDR is the only one with a worse economy to win
• Bush I loses with a better economy
• Carter is crushed in 1980
OBAMA’S WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
The Window
• The time between the primary and the convention
• Do not let Romney grab the center
• Make him a conservative with an empty core
Framing Romney
• Two Things
– Rich
– Mormon
• Frame him early
Develop a Narrative against Romney
• A Rich Guy who didn’t play by the Rules
• Out of touch
• Flip-Floper and Bain
Romney as Out of Touch
• Doesn’t Care about average Citizens
• The Actual Quote• On Cnn
Attack Bain Capital
• “If Mitt Romney Wins, the Middle Class Loses”
• Most People Do not know about Bain
• It did have some drawbacks
Attack The Tax Return
• First response is dismissive shifty
• Romney pays 15.4% on 250 million
• Romney had 5 years to get this in order
How to Work the Message
• Go negative
• Spend a lot ($10 Million)
• The Rich Guy Image Sticks.
The National Convention
Not much fun anymore
The Old Convention
• The Political Opium Den
• The Role of Party Bosses
• The Excitement of an unknown nomineeThese Days are over
The Goals of the Modern Convention
1. Nominate a candidate
2. Selecting a Vice-President
3. Introducing the Nominee to the People
We know these things Already
The Conventions are no longer fun for Television
• We used to get gavel-to-gavel coverage
• Huge Audiences
• Hardly anyone watches them anymore
What the Media Wants
• A Brokered Convention
• Gloom, doom, drama
• They took their ball and went home
What the Parties Want
• The convention as Infotainment
• Gavel-to-Gavel advertisement
SCRIPTING THE CONVENTION AS THEATRE
The Democratic Convention
• The Location
• The Goal
The Republican Convention
• Location
• Reason
Making it Work
• Selection and Timing Of Speakers
• Timing of the Convention itself (backloading)
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