The Climate Threat & Conservation Facing Certainty & Uncertainty T. Kittel © 2011, T....

The Climate Threat & Conservation

Facing Certainty & Uncertainty

T. Kittel

© 2011, T. Kittel, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder

Niwot Ridge, Southern US RockiesSubalpine Spruce-Fir Forest

March Maximum TemperatureTrend = + 0.9=C/decade

Manifestation of Change – Land Hydrology

• Spring snowmelt

• Hydrograph shifts

Manifestation of Change – Land Hydrology

+20d later–20d earlier

Timing of spring snowmelt 1948-2000 trends

Also:• Warmer river temperatures

Manifestation of Change - Biosphere

Earliest observation dates of Common Loons in the central and northern interior of British Columbia

• Earlier Spring Events - bird migration

Common Loon arrivalBritish Columbia interior– 8 dy/decade

(p < 0.001)

Steps to Understanding – Historical Analyses• Ecological Record

61 studies of 694 species or groups of species- Root et al. 2003. Nature

Changes in spring timing of a species’ temperature-related trait

earlier later

Terrestrial –• Longer Growing Season - with earlier spring bud break• Shifts in Plant & Animal Distributions - poleward and upward

Also:

The Uncertainties – The Underlying Problem

Socioeconomic, Climate, & Ecological Systems –

• Complex systems:• Many components Highly interactive• Key processes: Span wide range of temporal & spatial scales

• Multiple forcings

• Non-linear Thresholds

Cryosphere

Biosphere

Land Surface

Bottomline -• Difficult to gather key

data • Difficult to predict

behavior

Uncertainty – Sources• Socio-economic Pathway – Emissions Uncertainty

?

Which world?– Our choice

• Climate Model Limitations

Uncertainty – Sources

“Same Conceptual Basis, Different Results”

For a given emission scenario…

Different models’ outcomes

?

A2

A2°CA2

CGCM1

HADCM2SUL MC1LPJ

• Model Uncertainty – Total Ecosystem Carbon

Uncertainty – Sources

“Same Ecology, Different Results”- at the regional level

© 2007, T. Kittel

• Total Ecosystem Carbon

Uncertainty – Sources

“Same Ecology, Different Results”- with time

© 2007, T. Kittel

For a given emission scenario… for a given climate model scenario

The Certainties – Climate

‘What do we know for sure?’ – lessons from the climate models

‘Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful’- GEP Box, 1987

(1) Very character of regional climates will likely change over the next decades:

– Multivariate• Higher surface temperatures – different responses for Tmin Tmax

• Regional changes in precipitation,

cloud cover (light regime), wind regimes, etc.

– In means, but in also seasonality and interannual variability

Niwot Ridge, Southern US RockiesSubalpine Spruce-Fir Forest

March Maximum TemperatureTrend = + 0.9=C/decade

• Geographic and temporal coherence in forcings & responses?

“Strong Seasonal and Location Dependence”

Niwot Ridge T(max) TrendsSubalpine ForestMarch =

+0.9=C/decade

Nov = -0.5=C/decade

Alpine TundraMONTH

– Trends will be spatially dependent – even for Landscapes

• Local landscape variation in surface interactions with atmosphere

– Trends likely not to be monotonic• As circulation patterns shift, & the system passes thresholds

– Multivariate, non-linear changes give rise to novel climates

The Certainties – Climate

(2) Probable climate changes are of a magnitude and character to be significant for populations, communities, and landscapes:

– Phenologies/life cycles

– Geographic ranges

– Ecosystem structure & function• Resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded

• With extended periods dominated by seral stages

– Species interactions out of phase: • Foodwebs, competition, pollination

Certainties – The Biosphere

– lessons from the ecological models

Red-footed Booby in MangroveGalápagos Is.

“The Forgotten Pollinators”Rufous Hummingbird

Monarch Butterfly

White-winged Dove

Arizona-Sonoran Desert Museumwww.desertmuseum.org/pollination/

Lesser Long-nosed Bat

“Nectar corridors”•Sequence of flowering

plants

Long-distance migratory pollinators•Threatened – habitat loss•Keystone species

– Changes not monotonic – • ‘Winners vs. losers’?

• New equilibrium long in coming

Certainties – The Biosphere

“The loser now. Will be later to win” – Bob Dylan (1964, The Times They Are A-Changin‘)

– The rise of novel ecosystem types

Certainties – The Biosphere

– Strong synergisms with other stressors

• Compounding effects of multiple threats

• The magnitude of uncertainties ≥ magnitude of system sensitivity

• The magnitude of what’s certain will change everything

The Lessons

Difficult for conservation action??

Conservation Strategies

Cat Tien National Park, Vietnam

Steps to Understanding –• Integrate Best Knowledge

Steps to Action –• Deal with Uncertainty• Enhance Adaptive Capacity

The Uncertainty – Coping“Get over it”

Ecosystem Futures Financial Market Dynamics

• Change perspective on it Recognize it – Be smart about it

“If we build our … strategy around the [recognition] that we’re pretty darn ignorant, we probably won’t have to wait very long for

confirmation”

- John Clements, Wall Street Journal

• “Conserve smart”

= Implement strategies that recognize & handle uncertainty

• 5 key tenets:

1. Monitor temporal dynamics & trends – develop intuition

• Historical analysis • Start monitoring as soon as get in the game,

not as an afterthought

Research & Monitoring

2. Diversify holdings – to reduce risk in any one preserve

Site Selection & Prioritization

Acting Under Uncertainty – Financial Analog

• 5 key tenets (con’t):

3. Balance goals:

• Protecting current conservation sites & •

Protecting sites with potential for adaptation

Multiple-Goal Portfolio Enhanced Adaptive Capacity

4. Save aggressively – to counter downside risk of uncertainty

• “How much is enough?” Target Redundancy

5. Rebalance portfolio • Reassess strategy Adaptive Management

Acting Under Uncertainty – Financial Analog

Steps to Action – Adaptive StrategiesEnhance Adaptive Capacity –

Adopt ‘No Regrets’ & Scenario-independent Practices

Example strategies –– Reduce vulnerability to other threats

• Habitat loss, Invasive species, Pollution

– Protect processes• Watersheds, Food webs, Life cycles

– Landscape restoration

• Value of degraded sites

– Create networks of reserves

• & Reduce barriers: ‘Porous landscapes’

• The magnitude of uncertainties ≥ magnitude of system sensitivity

• The magnitude of what’s certain will change everything

• Steps to Action –• Integrate Best Knowledge• Deal with Uncertainty• Enhance Adaptive Capacity

The Lessons

Rhinoceros Hornbill eating Strangler Fig fruits, Borneo