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NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Incorporating the 2nd
The Changing Role of Simulation
Joe WalshintrinSIM, USA
Bradley HoltzCyon Research, USA
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
The Changing Role of Simulation
The use of Simulation has seen continual double digit % growth annually for about 30 years until 2008
This cumulative growth now means that Simulation is a significant portion of the Engineering Software Market and a driver for future growth
This has resulted in increased focus and investment in simulation by major PLM software vendors
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
The Changing Role of Simulation
This growth is coupled with increasing awareness that Simulation is the key enabler toIncreased Competitiveness
The changing role of simulation is more about its role in business than the changes in technology
Lets explore the Simulation as it relates to perceived Business Value and breadth of applicability
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Failure Analysis This is where it
begins Understanding
why it failed Run by a few
experts Dominated by test
vs analysis comparisons
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Design Validation
Checking before it fails
The dawn of Virtual Prototyping
Broader use of simulation
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Design Decision Support
Why not use simulation to make better design decisions
Why not ask designers to run simulations
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Design Drivers
Simulation making design decisions
"We are only at the verge of the era where simulation generates, rather than evaluates, geometry."
Keith Meintjes, CIMdata
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Systems Engineering
Driven by growth of embedded software
Heavily used in EDA world
Design drivers extended to systems
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Business value = broader demand
Demand should be increasing on a classic S curve
Is simulation at an inflection point to break through ?
Simulation Demand
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Business value = broader demand
intrinSIM looked at actual & projected MCAE Market growth since 2009 (Courtesy of Cambashi data observatories)
MCAE Approx. Growth Rate
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Chart2
-0.1093240303
0.1154686817
0.1660660582
0.075382927
0.0780685965
0.0933136324
0.0963872406
Growth Rate
MCAE Approx. Growth Rate
Sheet1
-10.93%11.55%16.61%7.54%7.81%9.33%9.64%
20082009201020112012201320142015
AltairVendor1152,000136,000172,000212,000250,372277,208304,996333,998
ANSYS WorkbenchVendor2425,542408,339458,386536,651586,128637,653702,319777,066
DS - SimuliaVendor3141,855144,022169,589202,809234,324271,908318,477371,761
ESIVendor4103,262104,612111,692131,108143,785153,792165,054176,140
LMS (now part of SPLM)Vendor5176,516150,301179,078247,741273,127305,821343,172385,963
MSCVendor6254,386218,066199,500207,500221,971231,805244,414255,810
50%Other CAE % of other MFGOther944,437796,364893,5131,008,5971,028,6541,073,9541,149,1841,237,979
2,197,9981,957,7042,183,7582,546,4062,738,3612,952,1413,227,6163,538,717
AltairVendor1-11%26%23%18%11%10%10%
ANSYS WorkbenchVendor2-4%12%17%9%9%10%11%
DS - SimuliaVendor32%18%20%16%16%17%17%
ESIVendor41%7%17%10%7%7%7%
LMS (now part of SPLM)Vendor5-15%19%38%10%12%12%12%
MSCVendor6-14%-9%4%7%4%5%5%
Other CAE @ 50% of other MCAEOther-16%12%13%2%4%7%8%
Sheet1
Vendor1
Vendor2
Vendor3
Vendor4
Vendor5
Vendor6
Other
MCAE Approx. Worldwide Revenue in $ 1,000s
Sheet2
Vendor1
Vendor2
Vendor3
Vendor4
Vendor5
Vendor6
Other
MCAE Approx. Worldwide Revenue in $ 1,000s
Growth Rate
MCAE Approx. Growth Rate
Sheet3
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Business value = broader demand
Inserted MCAE growth and evolution based outlook
This does not look like an inflection point
What happened?
Expertise Required MCAE Market Trends evolution
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Business value = broader demand
Simulation is still done primarily by specialized Analysts
Growth of MCAE market is tempered due to lack of expertise available
Expertise Available Expertise Required
MCAE Market Trends evolution
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Business Drivers
Business Drivers are going to force a revolution to overcome the expertise based limitation
Simulation will be forced to find a way
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Business Drivers
The demand is not going away
A Simulation revolution will occur: Fit for purpose Smart Integrated Transparent
Expertise Available Expertise Required
MCAE Market Trends revolution
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Enabling the Revolution Increased emphasis on
purpose built applications Increased emphasis on
Systems Engineering Emergence of simulation
knowledge capture & reuse
Emergence of near real time / near physics approaches
Unlimited access for the appropriate performance evaluation needed
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
ASSESS is Born
we should have a separate conference just on this topic. Rod Dreisbach, Boeing
Lunch with Brad Holtz (Cyon Research)
lets start with a Summit Several discussion and a few
months later and the Analysis, Simulation & Systems Engineering Summit was born
http://c4uc.org/News/Summit.aspx
http://c4uc.org/News/Summit.aspx
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
ASSESS is Born
January 2015 Santa Fe Institute as a host 40 people for a summit
Analysis & Simulation focusSystem Engineering focusDesign focusIndustry AnalystsFinancial AnalystsEnd usersSoftware VendorsDomestic & International representation
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
ASSESS at COFES
ASESS had a strong presence at COFES (Congress On the Future of Engineering Software) 2015 Summary overview of the Summit Presentations on Key Issues from the Summit Roundtable discussion regarding ASSESS
next steps
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Key Issues from the Summit
Design-centered Workflow Keith Meintjes
Ease of use & usabilityMalcolm Panthaki
Pre-CAD analysis and optimization Steve Levine on behalf of Dipankar Choudhury
Impact of web/cloud/mobileJon Hirschtick
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Key Issues from the Summit
Knowledge capture & reuseMarc Halpern
Ability to combine heterogeneous models in a systems approach
Steve Coy & Hubertus Tummescheit
Appropriate model fidelity & role of unsexy stuff
Jack Ring on behalf of Mary Fortier
Licensing models need to be revisited
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
ASSESS Next Steps
Analysis, Simulation & Systems Engineering Strategy initiative First pass at mission statement
Expanding the use and benefit of Model Based Simulation, Analysis and Systems Engineering
2005 2015 2020?1 in 22 1 in 6 ALL
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
ASSESS Next Steps
Establish a community for communication Creating multiple ASSESS LinkedIn groups
Investigate organizational form going forward Consortium / or part of an existing organization intrinSIM working with AES and others to explore
potential government funding
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
ASSESS Next Steps
ASSESS Symposium/ Conference planned Joint activity by Cyon
Research and intrinSIM Currently targeted for
January 2016 (1st or 2nd week) Target larger audience than
the Summit (100-120)
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Summary
The Role of Simulation is changing Growth is limited by available expertise Simulation is increasingly being seen as a
key enabler for Competitive Advantage Business Drivers are going to force a
Revolution Technologies are emerging to enable the
Revolution
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Summary
Analysis, Simulation & Systems Engineering Strategy (ASSESS) initiative has been started to address this changing role Collaborative industry wide effort
Expanding the use and benefit of Model Based Simulation, Analysis and Systems Engineering
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Summary
ASSESS activities Sponsored by Cyon Research and intrinSIM Initial Summit was January 2015 COFES 2015 sessions covering Summit Report &
ASSESS next steps Summit report
Creation of ASSESS LinkedIn Groups Next ASSESS event is being planned for Jan 2016
Contact us to become part of ASSESS
The Changing Role of SimulationThe Changing Role of SimulationThe Changing Role of SimulationFailure AnalysisDesign ValidationDesign Decision SupportDesign DriversSystems EngineeringBusiness value = broader demandBusiness value = broader demandBusiness value = broader demandBusiness value = broader demandBusiness DriversBusiness DriversEnabling the RevolutionASSESS is BornASSESS is BornASSESS at COFESKey Issues from the SummitKey Issues from the SummitASSESS Next StepsASSESS Next StepsASSESS Next StepsSummarySummarySummary
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