View
21
Download
0
Category
Tags:
Preview:
DESCRIPTION
The Big Picture. Sir Bob Kerslake, Head of the Civil Service and DCLG Permanent Secretary Association of Directors of Adult Social Services 18 April 2012. Economic Challenge. 11%. Extrapolated pre-crisis trend (OBR). 8%. OBR 2012 Forecast. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
The Big Picture
Sir Bob Kerslake, Head of the Civil Service and DCLG Permanent Secretary
Association of Directors of Adult Social Services 18 April 2012
2
Economic Challenge
889296
100104108112116
120124128
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
..
Extrapolated pre-crisis trend (OBR)
OBR 2012 Forecast
11%
8%
Source: Office for Budget Responsibility, Projections of potential output slide 3.4
3
Spending Challenge
4
Implementation of the Government’s fiscal consolidation plan is on course:
• by end 2011-12, 40% of the annual fiscal consolidation planned for the Spending Review 2010 period achieved, with 30% of the spending and two-thirds of the tax consolidation in place;
• by end April 2012, measures implemented to deliver almost three-quarters of the total savings expected from reforms to the welfare system; and
• the majority of tax consolidation measures will have been legislated by 6 April 2012.
Savings and Growth
5
Locally Driven Economic Growth
Tools• Growing Places Fund• National Planning Policy
Framework• Housing Strategy• Regional Growth Fund
Partnership• 100% of England covered by
LEPs• Enterprise Zones• City Deals
Incentives• New Homes Bonus• Localisation of Business Rates• Tax Increment Financing
6
Public Service Reform
Open Public Services White Paper 2011• Access to best possible public
services• Choice and control
Open Public Services Paper 2012• Major reforms of our services• First progress report on our reforms
across public services• Right to choose• Greater Choice• Choice Champions
Social care and other services
Social care personal budget: •Setting an ambition that councils will provide all those who are eligible for adult social care with access to a personal budget, preferably as a direct payment by 2013
SEN personal budget:
•Giving the option of a personal budget to all families with children with a statement of Special Educational Need a new Education, Health and Care Plan by 2014
7
Health Reform
The case for change
• Rising demand and treatment costs
• Service improvement
• Finances
Health & Social Care Act
• Clinically led commissioning
• Support for innovative services
• Greater voice for patients
•Local and national accountability
•New public health system
8
Care and Support Reform
Social Care Vision
_________Nov 2010
Law Commission
Report_________May 2011
Dilnot Commission
Report__________
July 2011
Caring for our future -
engagement________Sept - Dec
2011
Care and Support
White Paper _________spring 2012
Legislation
Dept. of Health
9
Health & Wellbeing Boards and the role for Local Authorities
• Massive opportunity for local government to take a lead in delivering more integration between Health, Adult Social Care and other services (including Housing)
• The level of take-up in the early implementer network -138 of 152 top tier authorities – shows the appetite in local government to take on a strengthened leadership role
• Local Authorities have a pivotal role in what is an opportunity for significant transformational change in your areas – some areas are running fast with this – learn from them
• You are best placed as Local Leaders and Champions
• Your role as Chair of the Health and Wellbeing Board is crucial and deliberate
10
Barnet’s Graph of Doom
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
35020
10/1
1
2011
/12
2012
/13
2013
/14
2014
/15
2015
/16
2016
/17
2017
/18
2018
/19
2019
/20
2020
/21
2021
/22
2022
/23
2023
/24
2024
/25
2025
/26
2026
/27
2027
/28
2028
/29
2029
/30
2030
/31
2031
/32
£ M
illio
ns
Adults Social Care Children's Services Net budget
11
Social Policy & Welfare Reform
• Universal Credit
• Benefits Cap
• Troubled Families
• Riots Communities & Victims Panel
• Young People
12
Community BudgetsCommunity Rights
Community Budgets
Whole Place• Cheshire West and Chester• Essex• Greater ManchesterThe “tri-boroughs”
Neighbourhood • Queens Park - Westminster• Ilfracombe - North Devon• Little Horton - Bradford • Sherwood - Tunbridge Wells• Haverhill - Suffolk• Norbiton - Kingston • Poplar - Tower Hamlets• Balsall Heath, Shard End, Castle Vale - Birmingham• Cowgate, Kenton Bar, Montagu - Newcastle• White City - Hammersmith & Fulham
Community RightsRight to Bid• Gives communities a fair chance to bid to
take over land and buildings that are important to them
Right to Challenge• Gives community groups with ideas on
how to run local services more effectively the right to challenge a local council to tender the service out
Neighbourhood Planning• Gives neighbourhoods greater influence in
deciding where facilities should be and the development they want locally. Plans subject to a referendum.
13
The size and shape of the Civil Service is changing significantly
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,20019
02
1905
1908
1911
1914
1917
1920
1923
1926
1929
1932
1935
1938
1941
1944
1947
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
FT
E e
mp
loym
ent
(‘00
0s)
Annual FTE series (1918-1998)
Quarterly FTE series (1999 Q1 - 2011 Q2)
Lowest FTE post-WWII
Sources: 1902 to 1990 – Mandate and Departmental Returns (Civil Service Statistics); 1991 to 1998 – ONS Public Sector Employment Statistics (PSES); 1999 to date – ONS Quarterly Public Sector Employment Statistics (QPSES)
1918: 221,000
1944: 1.16m(highest ever)
1977: 746,000(highest in past 50 years)
1999 Q1: 478,000(start of quarterly time-series)
2005 Q2: 536,000(HM Courts Service transfer in)
2011 Q4: 435,000(lowest since WWII)
14
Conclusions
• Local Government is recognised as delivering on an exceptionally tough spending settlement
• Demonstrating the localist approach is working on the big issues is critical
• We will need to achieve a new level of collaborative and creative thinking to get through the next spending review
Recommended