Testing the Big Idea. Decision Making - by the book Decision making is both science and art. Many...

Testing the Big Idea

Decision Making - by the book

Decision making is both science and art. Many aspects of military operations - movement rates, fuel consumption, weapons effects - are quantifiable and, therefore, part of the science of war. Other aspects - the impact of leadership, complexity of operations, and uncertainty regarding enemy intentions - belong to the art of war.

• US Army Field Manual FM101-5, Staff Organization And Operations, 1997, Chapter 5

Time Appreciation

Have you got the time to do this thoroughly?

• Urgency• Scope• People• Resources

Idea Test

1. Set the scene 2. Choose to change

3. First filter - test the Hypothesis

4. Turn the Hypothesis into a Goal

5. Optimise the value of the Goal

6. Second filter - test the Goal

7. Plan to realise the Ends

8. Third filter - test the Goal

Start with the end in mind

Why did Nelson fight at Trafalgar?

It’s not only what you do, it’s also why you choose to do it

B) Use up the old gunpowder before its sell-by date

A) Destroy the French fleet and remove the threat of invasion

C) Impress Lady Hamilton

Answer: A (if you didn’t pick A you are not taking this seriously)

Endgame

• The game ends when:

a) You are checkmated, or

b) My King is in g3, my Queen is in c5, etc….

Idea Test

1. Set the scene 2. Choose to change

3. First filter - test the Hypothesis

4. Turn the Hypothesis into a Goal

5. Optimise the value of the Goal

6. Second filter - test the Goal

7. Plan to realise the Ends

8. Third filter - test the Goal

The measurable improvement resulting from an outcome perceived as an advantage by one or more stakeholders, which contributes towards one or more organisational objective(s).

APMG Managing Benefits 2012

A benefit is a result that a stakeholder perceives to be of value.

What is a benefit?

• Improve• Increase• Reduce• Eliminate• Stop

Features, Outcomes and Benefits

• Feature - my car is painted ‘Police Car’ white

• Outcome - people move over for me on the motorway so I get home for 6 pm

• Benefit - I get to watch The Simpsons on TV

Picking the right benefits

Tactical benefits – getting the donkey to move

Picking the right benefitsStrategic benefits – a cart full of valuable cargo

Key stakeholders’ benefits

Same project, different intentions

POWER, CONTROL!

LOOT, DRINK!

Stakeholder Analysis

•Who are the key stakeholders?•What will they gain/lose?

•What impact will they have upon your objectives?

Means – what you useWays – what you doEnds – What you want

Benefits Dependency

This is manageable

This is not

Idea Test

1. Set the scene 2. Choose to change

3. First filter - test the Hypothesis

4. Turn the Hypothesis into a Goal

5. Optimise the value of the Goal

6. Second filter - test the Goal

7. Plan to realise the Ends

8. Third filter - test the Goal

Pre-Mortem

A way to assess your risks• Set the scene, “It’s a year from now, we

ran the project and it all went wrong”.• Describe how and why it went wrong• See what you can do now to prevent this

happening.

Original idea by Gary Klein, quoted in Thinking Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman

David Waller

david.waller@keldale.com

07780 533876

www.keldale.com

www.goalmodelling.com

www.hivemindnetwork.com