Techvest Oct 2011 Presentation 10 25 11 Selection

TechVest

ECONOMIC ECONOMIC REALITIES FOR A REALITIES FOR A FALLING WORLDFALLING WORLD

October 2011October 2011

TechVest

MismanagementMismanagement

Collapsing Collapsing the Private Economythe Private Economy

www.techvest.comwww.techvest.com

We are in a We are in a time of time of

desperatedesperate manipulationmanipulation

??Wither… Western Civ

TechVest

Unfunded Liabilities in EntitlementsUnfunded Liabilities in Entitlements

??

Deflation

TechVest

Dawning DeflationDawning DeflationOctober 2011October 2011

Just Just Dawning: Dawning:

Hope is not Hope is not an an

Investment Investment StrategyStrategy

Just Just Dawning:Dawning:

Debt Debt Destroys Destroys

EquityEquity

Just Just Dawning:Dawning:

Borrowing Borrowing is is TakingTaking

Just Just Dawning:Dawning:

Government Government crowds out crowds out

Private Private SectorSector

TechVest

Govt Growth Inverts Long Term GDPGovt Growth Inverts Long Term GDPSimply: as government spending has gone up, economic growth has gone down.

KEYNESIANISM “WASTES” GDP

Just Just Dawning:Dawning:

Debt Debt Destroys Destroys

EquityEquity

Just Just Dawning:Dawning:

Debt Debt Destroys Destroys

EquityEquity

Asset Asset DeflationDeflation

(Credit Contraction)(Credit Contraction)

&&Cost InflationCost Inflation

(Consumption Cost Expansion)(Consumption Cost Expansion)

??Deflation Avoided or Coming?

The End of Inflation ?The End of Inflation ?Housing Started It All, that Deflation is Not Over

??Nowhere to Hide?Nowhere to Hide?

DeflationarySpiral

THINGSCANGET

WORSE!!!

??

Deflation

TechVest

Problem: Keynesian Clue-Problem: Keynesian Clue-LessnessLessness

Congress without a Budget for 2.5 years

TechVest

Debt Problem Insoluble by Spending Debt Problem Insoluble by Spending FreezeFreeze

Interest Cost the Hidden Danger

TechVest

Investment Velocity – Debt Too Investment Velocity – Debt Too HighHigh

VELOCITY < 1.0 has ARRIVED

ZERO VELOCITY is IN 2014 ?

TechVest

Iceberg Excess Reserves – Rational Iceberg Excess Reserves – Rational FearFear

Global Global CoolingCooling

Deflation = Deflation = Deferred InflationDeferred Inflation

Freeze = Freeze = DeflationDeflation

TechVest

Debt Productivity – Frozen MoneyDebt Productivity – Frozen Money

VELOCITY < 1.0 has ARRIVED

ZERO VELOCITY is IN 2014 ?

TechVest

Endless Job Recession – Deeper and Endless Job Recession – Deeper and WiderWider

Far to Go …

TechVest

We are now following Hi-Debt Japan We are now following Hi-Debt Japan CurveCurve

TechVest

Fed Tax 2011 2010 Likely Max Possible~ Maximum Impact per $1m Profit

Estate Tax 0 55 55 -$550,000

Dividend Tax 15 20 39.5 -$150,000

Cap Gains 15 20 39.5 -$150,000200+ Income

Rate 35 39.5 44.9 -$100,000

MediCare Tax 0 3.8 3.8 -$38,000SSA 7.5%

Max 72k 150k No limit -$75,000

Net VAT Tax 0 1% 5% -$50,000Health Tax

/empl. 0 750 2000 -$2,000 ea

Inflation 4% 6% 10% -$100,000

Dollar Value PPP 100 90 80 -$200,000Gasoline Increase $3 $4 $5 -$20,000

EPA CO2 Tax 0 1% 2% -$20,000Deductions Reduction 1% 3% 5% -$50,000

Small-Biz Tax Increases: Wipe-Out of any Typical $1m Profit

TotalHit !93%+MoreTaxes

ITCANGET

WORSE!!!

??Currency Deflation

TechVestPart 2:Part 2:

HOW TO HOW TO AVOIDAVOIDDOOMDOOM

Higher Gold is Higher Gold is a Bad Signa Bad Sign

Is it already Is it already too late?too late?

??

Gold is Hedge Against Gold is Hedge Against MismanagementMismanagement

GOLD = MONEY

??

Gold is the New World CurrencyGold is the New World Currency

??

BUT the Dollar CAN be Worth Gold BUT the Dollar CAN be Worth Gold !!

TechVest

Assume the Will to Reduce Assume the Will to Reduce Entitlements:Entitlements:

… IF there are jobs

false savings

considered too radical, but in fact the MOST we can do

insufficient

impossible

TechVest

Labor Force Growth – Good for the Labor Force Growth – Good for the USAUSA

… IF there are jobs

??

Green = LT EconoSocial GrowthBlue = LT EconoSocial FreezeGray = LT EconoSocial DeclineRed = LT EconoSocial Flashpoint

World 25-year Outlook

??

We are Our Own Worst EnemyWe are Our Own Worst Enemy

??

We are Saudi Arabia and Libya in We are Saudi Arabia and Libya in OneOne

??

The Little Engine That Could … The Little Engine That Could … RestartRestart

??

Productive Engine That Could… Productive Engine That Could… TechnologyTechnology

SolutionsSolutionsChange the EngineChange the Engine

Stop BorrowingStop Borrowing

Energy & Energy & Technology Technology

Productivity WealthProductivity Wealth

Drill Baby Drill !!!Drill Baby Drill !!!

Sample Solutions:Sample Solutions:

• Balance BudgetBalance Budget• end Regulationsend Regulations• 75% 75% Jobs CreditJobs Credit

• cut Corporate Taxcut Corporate Tax• no Minimum Wageno Minimum Wage• Raise Interest RatesRaise Interest Rates• Suspend Davis-BaconSuspend Davis-Bacon• mandate job re-trainingmandate job re-training• enforce illegal-hiring lawsenforce illegal-hiring laws

• hire 200,000+ border guardshire 200,000+ border guards• restrict unemployment benefitsrestrict unemployment benefits

• eliminate accredited investor limitseliminate accredited investor limits

ITCANGET

BETTER!!!

TechVest

October 2011October 2011

TechVest

November 2011November 2011

TechVest

November 2011November 2011

??