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Systems to Monitor and Evaluate Reconstruction Progress in AcehWorld Bank Economic Development Seminar Series
Jock McKeon – 27 March 2008World Bank
Tracking the money and monitoring progress
The rationale of post-disaster monitoring and analysis
Quantify needs
Determine reconstruction priorities
Ascertain Government capacity
Allocate funds where they are most needed
Provide transparency and ability to hold agencies accountable
Reconstruction highlights Dec 07
US$6.8 billion allocated to projects US$4.2 billion (61% allocations) disbursed US$1.2 billion disbursed to housing Environment, Energy, and Flood Control
sectors remain under-funded Significant disbursements still required for
housing and transport sectors Disbursements in 2007 slower than
expected
The money-tracking journey
1. Assess the damages and losses
2. Determine needs
3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects
4. Identify the gaps
5. Monitor progress
Reconstruction monitoring & evaluation methodology
“Tracking the Money”
Reconstruction Physical Progress
Social and Economic Monitoring
M&E
On Budget
APBN
APBD
Off Budget
Donors
NGOs
# of house constructed# of school built# of health facilities builtAgriculture land restored# of boat built
InflationEmploymentWagesMaterial PricesPovertyIDPs
World BankBRR
BRRUNORCOthers
BPSBI
World Bank
The money-tracking journey
1. Assess the damages and losses
2. Determine needs
3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects
4. Identify the gaps
5. Monitor progress
Damage and losses assessment
Guided by BAPPENAS with support from international agencies
Released in January 2005 to CGI
www.eclac.org/mexico/documentswww.worldbank.org/hazards/policy/guidelines.htm
Tsunami damage and losses
$0 $250 $500 $750 $1,000 $1,250 $1,500 $1,750
HousingTransport
EnvironmentFisheries
EnterpriseAgriculture & Livestock
Flood control, irrigation worksEducation
HealthGovernance & Admin (incl.
Community, culture and religionEnergy
Water & SanitationCommunicationsBank & Finance
Other Infrastructure
US$ millions
The money-tracking journey
1. Assess the damages and losses
2. Determine needs
3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects
4. Identify the gaps
5. Monitor progress
Determining the needs – looking ahead
Value of Damages
Reconstruction needs
Reconstruction program
Financing Formula
= Damages
+ technological improvement
+ relocation costs
+ mitigation costs
+ losses relating to capacity development
+ inflation estimate
Consider:
Financing needs
Priorities for reconstruction
~ sectoral
~ geographical
Consider:
Government funds
Private sector funds
Insurance reimbursement
International grants
International loans (diversion existing loans, fresh loans)
Make appropriate adjustments for the needs analysis
Inflation (YoY, 2002=100)
Tsunami Oil Price
8,5%
5,7%0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
J an-
04
Mar-
04
May-
04
J ul-
04
Sep-
04
Nov-
04
J an-
05
Mar-
05
May-
05
J ul-
05
Sep-
05
Nov-
05
J an-
06
Mar-
06
May-
06
J ul-
06
Sep-
06
Nov-
06
J an-
07
Mar-
07
May-
07
Source : BPSNational Banda Aceh Lhokseumaw e
The money-tracking journey
1. Assess the damages and losses
2. Determine needs
3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects
4. Identify the gaps
5. Monitor progress
World Bank expenditure tracking methodology
OUTPUT Reports
Presentations
Analytical notes
Project Concept Notes
REC
ONST
RUCTI
ON D
ATA
BRR budget
Donor projects
NGO projects
Cle
anse
dat
a
Re
mov
e du
plic
ates
Al
loca
te t
o se
ctor
s
Ve
rify
dat
a
Con
duct
ana
lysi
s
Damage and Losses Assessment
NEEDS ASSESSMENT
DATA PROCESSING
The money-tracking journey
1. Assess the damages and losses
2. Determine needs
3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects
4. Identify the gaps
5. Monitor progress
Sectoral allocations gaps against core minimum needs(allocations minus needs)
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Com
mun
ity,
cul
ture
and
relig
ion
Gov
erna
nce
& A
dmin
(inc
l. L
and) H
ealt
h
Ente
rpri
se
Educ
atio
n
Wat
er &
San
itat
ion
Hou
sing
Tran
spor
t
Agr
icul
ture
&Li
vest
ock
Com
mun
icat
ions
Oth
er Inf
rast
ruct
ure
Fish
erie
s
Bank
& F
inan
ce
Floo
d co
ntro
l,ir
riga
tion
wor
ks
Ener
gy
Envi
ronm
ent
US$
million
s
Spending progress to core minimum needs(disbursements minus needs)
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Hea
lth
Gov
erna
nce
& A
dmin
(incl
. Lan
d)
Ent
erpr
ise
Com
mun
ity, c
ultu
re a
ndre
ligio
n Edu
catio
n
Wat
er &
San
itatio
n
Agr
icul
ture
& L
ives
tock
Fis
herie
s
Ban
k &
Fin
ance
Oth
er In
fras
truc
ture
Com
mun
icat
ions
Ene
rgy
Env
ironm
ent
Flo
od c
ontr
ol, i
rrig
atio
nw
orks T
rans
port
Hou
sing
US
$ m
illio
ns
The money-tracking journey
1. Assess the damages and losses
2. Determine needs
3. Capture commitments and allocations to projects
4. Identify the gaps
5. Monitor progress
Total commitments exceed minimum rebuilding costs: US$1.5 bn available for “building back better”
Aceh damage and loss assessment, 4.5
Nias, 0.4
Inflation, 1.3
GOI, 2.6
NGOs, 1.9
Donors, 2.3
Donors - grants, 0.3Donors - soft loans, 0.4Upgrading facilities in tsunami- and
earthquake- affected areas & post-conflict reintegation and development
programs, 1.5
NGOs, 0.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10USD Billion
Build back
better - $1.5bn
Minimum required to rebuild to pre-tsunami levels - $6.2bn
Committed but not allocated - $0.9bn
Already allocated to specific projects - $6.8bn
Commitments Allocations
Aceh tsunami update (Dec 07):US$7.7 bn committedUS$6.8 bn allocated to projectsUS$4.2 bn disbursed
2,642
1,656
1,877
1,233
2,324
1,289
GOI, 2,642
NGO, 2,100
Donor - grants, 2,600
Donors - loans, 400
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Commitment Allocated Disbursement
US$ millions
Next steps?
Post-conflict monitoring
Continue monitoring of disbursements? (US$2.6 bn to be spent)
Is there potential for Govt to adopt this reconstruction monitoring? (BAPPEDA, BPDE?)
Working papers
Managing Post-Disaster Reconstruction Finance - International Experience in Public Financial Management
Fengler W, Ihsan A, Kaiser K World Bank, 2008 Using Data for Ex-Ante Preparedness for Disaster
Management - Tracking the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami reconstruction funds in Indonesia
McKeon JM World Bank, 2008 Tracking Financial Flows after Disasters - Reconstruction
Expenditure Tracking Analysis Methodology (RETAM)
Fengler W World Bank, 2007 Tracking the Money: International Experience with Financial
Information Systems and Databases for Reconstruction
Agustina CD World Bank, 2007
http://go.worldbank.org/TTAEQW4DR0
www.worldbank.org/id/reconstruction
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