Strategic Debate 2 - Defining the Transition to a ... · Estimated Renewable Energy Share of Global...

Strategic Debate 2 - Defining the Transition to a Sustainable Bioeconomy

Gunter Pauli, ZERI Initiative & Novamont Francois Houllier, French National Institute for Agricultural Research Amit Kumar, TERI University Maximo Torero, International Food Policy Research Institute Adrian Rodríguez, UN ECLAC Chairs: Franz Fischler, European Forum Alpbach

Inge Paulini, German Advisory Council on Global Change

Mapping Bioeconomy scientific domains: a still young and evolutive scientific concept

Plant  Sciences  &  Biotechnologies  

Social  &  Health  Sciences  

Forest  &  Bioenergy  &  Environmental  Sciences  

Applied  Microbiology  &  Biotechnology  

Chemistry  

Processes  &  Engineering  

Renewables: Role of

Bioenergy

Amit Kumar TERI University

India

Global scenario

Estimated Renewable Energy Share of Global Final Energy Consumption, 2013

….Global scenario

3.2 billion people relying on traditional biomass for

cooking and heating.

….Global scenario

Global new investments by sector, 2014, and growth on 2013, $BN Source: UNEP, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Indian scenario

Oil import @ 83% of domestic requirements constitutes

about 32% of total imports Source: https://data.gov.in/catalog/importexport-crude-oil-and-petroleum-products

Impact

• Transition to modern bio-fuels addresses the

key cornerstones of renewable energy: – Energy security

– Energy independence

– Climate change mitigation

• Help achieve SDGs

• High potential of local employment generation

– Arresting rural – urban migration

• Overall economic development

Sustainability • Optimal utilization of land

– Focus on use of wastelands

– Suitable plant varieties

– Multi-cropping

• Increased use of agri-residues, alternate feedstock, and

waste streams from different sectors

– Appropriate conversion technologies, including those capable to

handle multiple feedstock

• Employing only non-edible crop/oil seed varieties

• Less resource-intensive feedstock production and

processing

….Sustainability

• Much higher investments in sectoral and

multidisciplinary R&D programmes

• Focus on complete value chain

• Balance economic, social and environmental

factors – Income creation along the value chain for rural

economies

Thank You!

akumar@teri.res.in

www.teriuniversity.org

www.teriin.org

Transition to a Sustainable Bioeconomy

Maximo Torero (m.torero@cgiar.org)

Global Bioeconomy Summit ( 25-26th of November 2015, Berlin )

GLOBAL CHALLENGE

Source: Johan Rockstrom: Let the environment guide our development

Growing Human

Pressure

Climate change

Ecosystem decline

Surprise

Bioeconomy

DEFINITION

Bioeconomy refers to all economic activity derived from scientific and research activity

focused on biotechnology. In other words, understanding mechanisms and processes at the

genetic and molecular levels and applying this understanding to creating or improving

industrial processes.

4  

Bigger population in urban areas will demand more and better food

36%

POPULATION  GROWTH  Change in population by

region 2010-2100 (millions)

182  millions  

97  millions  

-­‐63  millions  

2,552  millions  

432  millions  

29  millions  

Africa:  Younger    

Asia  and  Europe:  Older      

Source:UN  2011  

Challenge 1: Improve efficiency or shift of

potential frontier

STOCHASTIC  PROFIT  FRONTIER  

C

ProducOon  of  maize  

ProducOon  of  wheat  

FronOer  of  possibiliOes  of  producOon  

FronOer  of  possibiliOes  of  producOon  increases  

Challenge 2: We need to value externalities positive

or negative

Pricing water

WATER  STRESS  RISK  

2.5  

US$9.4  TRILLION  

Source:  Veolia  Water  &  IFPRI  2011.  

BILLION  PEOPLE  

TODAY  Total  popula<on  living  in  water    scarce  areas  

Global  GDP  generated  in  water  scarce  regions  

US$63  TRILLION  

Total  popula<on  living  in  water    scarce  areas  

4.7  

BILLION  PEOPLE  

90%  

570%  

By  2050  

Global  GDP  generated  in  water  scarce  regions  

52%  49%    45%  

36%  39%  22%  

popula<on  grain  produc<on  

global  GDP  

A  CONTINUOUS  TREND  TOWARDS  INTERNATIONALIZATION  OF  FOOD  MARKETS  

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

18.2%

13.9% 12.3%

19.1%

16.1%

Share  of  produced  calories  crossing  an  internaOonal  border  

Are  we  pricing  the  water?  

We  need  to  recognize  carbon  as  a  global  externality  and  value  carbon  through  carbon  trade  

Challenge 3: Is not only supply!

ADDITIONAL  DEMAND  FOR  BIOMASS  

Growing population

Growing income

Need for alternative to fossil carbon chains

Increased    producOon  

Reduced    supply    for  final  consumers  

Reduced  supply  for    intermediate  consumers  

New  Demand    for  crops    

Increase  in  yield  and  

area,  extension  of  

cropland,  and  reducOon  

of  other  crops  

GROWING  DEMAND  

Addi<onal  food  demand  

Addi<onal  Bioenergy  demand  

Addi<onal  industrial  

Hunger?  

SubsOtuOon  effects  

Feed  

Other  sectors  (agrifood,  

cosmeOcs)  

SubsOtuOon  effects  Biomass  demand  

OVERALL  IMPACT  

By  2020:  illustraOon  with  biofuels  1st  generaOon  

23,2%  

22,1%  

2,7%  

10,0%  

43,3%  

15,7%  

15,0%  

10,1%  

2,0%  

13,9%  

1,4%  

2,4%  

7,7%  

1,7%  

0,0%   5,0%   10,0%   15,0%   20,0%   25,0%   30,0%   35,0%   40,0%   45,0%  

MAIZE  

SUGAR  CROPS  

WHEAT  

PALM  OIL  

RAPESEED  OIL  

SOYBEAN  OIL  

SUNFLOWER  OIL  

Share  of  the  crop  (all  use)  in  total  HARVESTED  cropland  

ProducOon  devoted  to  biofuels  

Source:  Laborde,  2011  But  only  16%  of  world  area  devoted  to  biofuels  

SUPPLY  AND  DEMAN  

S   D

Challenge 4: Bioeconomy needs to be inclusive

SUPPLY  AND  DEMAN  

•   Huge  opportunity  for  smallholders  

•   Huge  potenOal  for  contract  farming  

•   But  we  need  an  appropriate  regulaOon  framework    

Final Remarks

Agriculture  is  criOcal  for  

Employment  

Economic  development  

Food  Security  

Important  changes  in  key  drivers  

Demand  drivers  changing  rapidly  

Land  constraints  

Water  constrains  

Climate  change  

Bioeconomy  offers  a  huge  

opportunity  

But  we  need  proper  regulatory  

environment  

Gains  in  efficiency  and  potenOal  

Increase  value  added  

SAI  

Bioeconomy  needs  to  be  inclusive  

Thanks!

Berlin  Congress  Center  -­‐  25  to  26  November    Berlin,  Germany    

Strategic  Debate  II  Defining  the  Transi@on  to  a  Sustainable  Bioeconomy    

Santiago 7 y 8 octubre de 2015

Report  from  the  Interna@onal  Conference    La#n  America  and  the  Caribbean  Bioeconomy  2015  

 Adrián G. Rodríguez

UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean

Adequacy  of  the  framework  for  development  and  innova@on  policies  in  La@n  America  

•   There  is  significant  poten@al  for  the  development  of  the  bioeconomy  in  La@n  America  and  the  Caribbean  (LAC).  –   Biomass  produc-on,  agricultural  waste  biomass,  biodiversity  

•   Not  a  single  bioeconomy,  but  many  possible  LAC  bioeconomies  

•   The  bioeconomy  and  other  development  policies  (e.g.  innova@on,  economic  diversifica@on)  

•   Consistency  with  integra@ve  policy  approaches  (e.g.  WEF  Nexus,  Sustainable  Food  Systems)  

•   The  bioeconomy  approach  and  the  2030  Development  Agenda  •   The  bioeconomy  and  SDGs  •   The  bioeconomy  and  INDCs  to  UNFCC  

Current  situa@on  of  the  bioeconomy    in  La@n  America  

•   Enabling  policy  frameworks  are  in  place  or  emerging,  although  not  termed  as  bioeconomy  (except  in  Argen@na).  –   Bioenergy  (Brasil)  –   Innova-on  policies  (Argen-na,  Chile,  Costa  Rica,  Brazil,  Uruguay)  –   Biotechnology  policies  (Cuba,  Uruguay)  –   Healthy  Food  Programs  (e.g.  Chile)  

•   There  are  on-­‐going  public  and  private  ini@a@ves  –   Bioenergy  (Brazil,  Argen-na,  Chile)  –   Biotechnology  in  agriculture  (Argen-na,  Brazil,  Cuba,  Mexico)  –   Bioproducts  (Costa  Rica,  Colombia,  Mexico)  –   Environmental  services  (Costa  Rica)  

Unveiling  the  poten@al  of  the  bioeconomy    in  La@n  America  

•   Adequate  regulatory  frameworks  (eg.  bio-­‐safety/bio-­‐risk,  access  to  gene@c  resources,  GMOs,  smart  grids,  property  rights,  etc.)  

•   Ar@cula@on  of  the  policy  ini@a@ves  already  in  place  (e.g.  R&D+I  in  fields  such  as  clean  non-­‐fossil  energy,  agricultural  biotechnology,  human  and  animal  health,  non-­‐carbon  agriculture,  payments  for  ecosystem  services,  efficiency  and  sustainability  of  the  food  system).  

•   Be[er  coordina@on  of    scien@fic  and  technological  capaci@es  that  already  exist  in  the  countries  (Public-­‐Private-­‐Kowledge)  

•   Policies  for  bioeconomic  SMEs  (e.g.  crea@ng  capaci@es,  compe@@on  -­‐  entry  to  concentrated  markets,  adequate  financing  for  innova@ve  start-­‐ups).  

Other  issues  

•   Promo@ng  policy  dialogue  among  public  and  private  bioeconomy  stakeholders;    

•   Strengthening  societal  understanding  of  the  poten@al  of  the  bioeconomy  and  bioeconomic  growth  for  inclusive,  compe@@ve  and  sustainable  development;    

•   Systema@zing  and  exchanging    successful  bioeconomy  experiences,  especially  on  market  and  business  development,  public-­‐private  collabora@on,  university-­‐business  collabora@on;    

•   Evalua@ng  bioeconomy  pathways  (i.e.  the  bioeconomies)    

•   Bringing  the  bioeconomy  to  higher  policy  levels,  strengthening  its  contribu@ons  to  a  de-­‐carbonized  economy,  a  be[er  environment  and  more  inclusive  socie@es.  

Thank  you!  

The  bioeconomy  and  the  2030  Development  Agena