Steering committee meeting #2

August 3, 2011

STEERING COMMITTEE MEETING #2

MEETING AGENDA1. Introductions2. Status Reports3. Demographics Presentation4. Community Engagement—Plan Norwalk by

MindMixer5. Project Team—City Update6. Steering Committee Discussion7. Next Meeting8. Adjourn

STATUS REPORT

The Foundation for the Comprehensive Plan

LOCAL DEMOGRAPHICS

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES Population Projections Population Characteristics Demographic Changes Housing Characteristics Housing Demand Future Land Use Demand

LOCAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS Population is a major component in the

Comprehensive Plan It’s a building block for many land use estimates

Residential units Commercial and office square footage Industrial acres

LOCAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS The primary source for demographic

data for Plan Norwalk is the U.S. Census Bureau, ESRI Business Analyst, CBRE Market Analysis

Since 1980, Norwalk has increased its population by 276.5% from 2,376 to 8,945

Norwalk has been the fastest growing city in Warren County during the same time period

LOCAL POPULATION PROJECTION Various Methodologies

Trend line analysis 1960 to 2010 1970 to 2010 1980 to 2010 2000 to 2010

Cohort survival analysis

LOCAL POPULATION PROJECTION

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 20400

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1,328 1,745 2,6765,726 6,884

8,94511,623

15,103

19,625

Norwalk Population Estimate 1

LOCAL POPULATION PROJECTIONSPopulation Estimate 1 What do the numbers tell us?

Additional 10,680 people over 30 years 8,945 in 2010 growing to 19,625 in 2040

Growth rate: 119% total growth over 30 years

LOCAL POPULATION PROJECTION

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,000

1,328 1,745 2,676 5,726 6,884 8,94515,930

28,370

50,523

Norwalk Population Estimate 2

LOCAL POPULATION PROJECTIONSPopulation Estimate 2 What do the numbers tell us?

Additional 41,578 people over 30 years 8,945 in 2010 growing to 50,523 in 2040

Growth rate: 465% total growth over 30 years

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGESNATIONAL TRENDS AND LOCAL

COMPARISONS

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGESNationally, baby boomers are still

relevant! Born between 1946 and 1964 Very large age cohort that impacts

community (60M in that age group nationally)

Some are entering retirement age now Future impacts on housing,

land use, transportation and economy

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGESGeneration Y – The Boomer babies!

Born between 1982 and 1995 Larger generation (80M vs. 60M) nationally

than Baby Boomers Different preferences Plugged-in generation Impacts on housing choices, land

use, transportation and economy

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGESGeneration X – the in-between

generation Born between 1965 and 1976 Smaller generation nationally than Baby

Boomers (51M vs. 60M) The suburban generation; the ‘latchkey’

kids First multi-cultural

generation Highly mobile workforce

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGESNorwalk demographics differ from national trends

2010 population characteristics Age 0 – 14 2,244 or 25.1% Gen Y 1,686 or 18.9% Gen X 2,027 or 22.7% Baby Boomers 2,206 or 24.6% Age 65+ 782 or 8.7%

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGESNorwalk demographics differ from national trends Small growth in population 65 and older

Norwalk population over 65 is 8.7% (2010) US population over 65 is 13.03% (2010)

Young children (age 0 – 14) make up largest population segment; 25.1%

Children age 0 – 18 make over 30% of Norwalk’s population

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGESAverage age is increasing in Norwalk, similar to national trend 32.8 years in 2000 34.3 years in 2010

IMPACTS ON HOUSING DEMANDHOUSING TRENDS AND DEMANDS

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES Household size is decreasing Norwalk,

similar to national trend 2.88 in 2000 2.70 in 2010

Norwalk has larger HH size than surrounding communities and State of Iowa in 2010 2.41 in Iowa 2.32 in West Des Moines 2.58 in Ankeny

IMPACTS ON HOUSING DEMAND Residential unit demand based on

population estimate 1 4,151 residential units 3,118 owner occupied 1,033 rental

IMPACTS ON HOUSING DEMAND Residential unit demand based on

population estimate 2 16,162 residential units 12,139 owner occupied 4,023 rental

IMPACTS ON HOUSING DEMAND Types of housing products

Single family Accessory dwelling unites Multi-family Mixed use Assisted living

IMPACTS ON HOUSING DEMAND

IMPACTS ON HOUSING DEMAND

IMPACTS ON HOUSING

IMPACTS ON HOUSING

IMPACTS ON HOUSING

IMPACTS ON HOUSING DEMAND Plan Norwalk assumptions

Existing building trends and supply 71% single family and 21% multi-family 76% owner occupied and 24% rental

Should goals for single family and multi-family change in the future?

What will market demand be for owner occupied versus rental?

IMPACTS ON HOUSING DEMAND 2010 housing unit supply

360 +/- approved units; sf and mf 4 year supply based on population

projection 1 Existing supply will only meet a small

portion of 2040 demand!

IMPACTS ON LAND CONSUMPTION

ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT LAND USE Projected Land Use by

Classification (by percentage) Residential 30.0% Commercial 6.5% Industrial/RR 2.5% Public/semi public 14.8% Public R.O.W. 25.6% Vacant/Ag 20.6% Total 100.0%

IMPACTS ON LAND CONSUMPTION Population Estimate 1

Residential Land Use 811 acres

Commercial Land Use 176 acres

Industrial Land Use 68 acres

Public Land Use 400acres

ROW 692 acres Other Land Use 557

acresTotal New Development 2,702

acresLand area is equal to 4.2 square miles

IMPACTS ON LAND CONSUMPTION Population Estimate 2

Residential Land Use 3,156 acres

Commercial Land Use 684 acres

Industrial Land Use 263 acres

Public Land Use 1,557 acres

ROW 2,693 acres Other Land Use 2,167

acresTotal New Development

10,520 acresLand area is equal to 16.4 square miles

IMPACTS ON LAND CONSUMPTION Where should residential land uses be

geographically allocated? Where should other land uses by

geographically allocated? Will this meet future demand? What options should be identified in

Plan Norwalk?

SUMMARY Population growth and demographic

change will impact housing demand over the next 30 years

Current plans, building trends and housing supply may need to change significantly to meet future demands

Increasing demand for housing options with higher densities with more amenities within walking distance

Plan Norwalk by MindMixer

COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT

PLAN NORWALK USER STATISTICS 661 unique visitors 1731 visits 12006 pageviews 6.94 pageviews per visit Average visist lasts 5 min. 34 sec. 47 ideas submitted 198 comments

PLAN NORWALK TOPICS Community Character Community Health Growth and Housing Diversity Public Safety Stormwater Transportation Diversity

COMMUNITY CHARACTER 12 Ideas Supports

Entryway to Norwalk 22 North Avenue 9 Pedestrian Improvements 8 Amphitheater 6

Theme: improve the Hwy. 28 entrance to Norwalk

COMMUNITY HEALTH 5 Ideas

Supports Bike trail 12 Community center 6 Walkable neighborhoods 6

Theme: provide connection to the Great Western Bike Trail and create connections to city parks

GROWTH AND HOUSING DIVERSITY 14 Ideas Supports

Aquatic center 9 Current pool 4 Senior housing 4 Family fun center 2 (with

59 comments)

Theme: “John’s project”, TIF, taxes and land use policy in Norwalk

PUBLIC SAFETY 13 Ideas Support

More cruisers than cameras 17 Lower speed limits on Hwy. 28 7 Ped/bike bridge over Hwy. 28 5

Theme: cameras = “Big Brother” or “cash cow” or legitimate traffic safety control ???

STORMWATER 3 Ideas

Supports Regional stormwater detention 8 Land developer’s responsibility 4

Theme: more public awareness and education about stormwater management

TRANSPORTATION DIVERSITY 2 Ideas Supports

Bike paths 11 Mass transit 8

Theme: connections to the metro trail system and to DART.

NEXT STEPS Idea generation phase extended to

August 15th

Continue to encourage input on the Plan Norwalk by MindMixer web site

Voting phase will follow and end on August 31st Get out and vote for the best ideas

submitted on the Plan Norwalk by MindMixer web site