Status of tilapia aquaculture in Africa and production ... · Africa and production projections...

Status of tilapia aquaculture in

Africa and production projections

(regional and international)Martin Van der Knaap

Project Inception Workshop of GCP/RAF/510/MUL:

Enhancing capacity/risk reduction of emerging Tilapia Lake Virus (TiLV) to African tilapia aquaculture

Southern Sun Mayfair Hotel, 23-24 October 2018, Nairobi, Kenya

Outlook models

• Projections and not forecast

• Likely paths of development and constraints in fishery and aquaculture supply and demand

• Determine regional vulnerabilities, changes in comparative advantage, price effects, and potential adaptation strategies in the sector

• Medium/longer outlook

Fish to 2030Prospects for Fisheries and Aquaculture

• World Bank, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), FAO, University of Arkansas

• IFPRI’s IMPACT Model

• Capture and aquaculture supply modeled for 16 fish species group and 115 country/regions

• http://www.fao.org/docrep/019/i3640e/i3640e.pdf

Projected Total Fish Supply

90.463.6

2011 (Data)

Capture Aquaculture

Total Harvest154.0 Million Tonnes

93.4 95.7

2030 (Model)

Capture Aquaculture

Total Harvest189.1 Million Tonnes

• More than 100% increase from 2010 to 2030• India

• Latin America and Caribbean

• Southeast Asia

• 50-100% increase from 2010 to 2030• South Asia (excl. India)

• Middle East and North Africa

• Sub-Saharan Africa

• Less than 50% increase from 2010 to 2030• Everywhere else

Aquaculture Supply Growth: Regions

• More than 50% increase from 2010 to 2030• South Asia (excl. India)

• 30-50% increase from 2010 to 2030• India• Southeast Asia• North America• Middle East and North Africa• China• Sub-Saharan Africa

• Decline from 2010 to 2030• Japan

Consumption Growth: Regions

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

ECA NAM LAC EAP CHN JAP SEA SAR IND MNA AFR ROW

2010 2030

• Scenario 1: Faster aquaculture growth

• Scenario 2: Expanded use of fish processing waste in fishmeal and fish oil production

• Scenario 3: A major disease outbreak in shrimp aquaculture in Asia and in Tilapia aquaculture worldwide

• Scenario 4: Accelerated shift of consumer preferences in China

• Scenario 5: Improvement of capture fisheries productivity

• Scenario 6: Impacts of climate change on the productivity of capture fisheries

Six hypothetical scenarios

0

40

80

120

160

200

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026

Capture

Total fish production

Aquaculture

Million tonnes

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 Excluding aquatic plants.

Surpass of aquaculture (2013 and 2021)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026

Total capture

Capture for food

Aquaculture

Million tonnes

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 Excluding aquatic plants.

Aquaculture growth

11

%+26 million tonnes

p.a. 0.7 1.8 1.5 3.1 2.3 3.3

Oceania0% North

America0%

Africa3%

Europe3%

Latin America

3%

Asia91%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

NorthAmerica

Europe Oceania LatinAmerica

Asia Africa

Per capita fish consumption

2006

Aquaculture for human consumption Capture for human consumption

2026

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

Per capita fish consumption

Kg (lw)

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

0

10

20

30

40

World Developingcountries

Developedcountries

Africa LatinAmerica

NorthAmerica

Europe Asia Oceania

2014-16 2026

Per capita consumption: fish and meat in 2026

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

Trade of fish and fishery products (2015 value)

Central America & Caribbean

2%

Oceania2%

Africa4%

North America

8%

South America

10%

Europe36%

Asia38%

Exports

Central America & Caribbean

1%

Oceania2%

South America

2%

Africa4%

North America

17%

Asia33%

Europe41%

Imports

Africa: imports (average 2013-2015 Value)

28%

27%

35%

1%

2%

6%

Fish food supply

Per capita fish consumption

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

World

LIFDCs

Asia

Africa

Europe

Oceania

Northern America

Latin America & the Caribbean

Per capita fish consumption (kg)

Fish contribution to human nutrition

0 5 10 15 20 25

World

LIFDCs

Asia

Africa

Europe

Oceania

Northern America

Latin America & the Caribbean

Share of fish in total animal proteins (%)

Tilapia production projection

•Global tilapia production is expected to almost double from 4.3 million tons to 7.3 million tons between 2010 and 2030.

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

8000000

9000000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Oreochromis niloticus from Aquaculture (global)

Quantity (t) Value ($)

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4000000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Tilapia aquaculture production in Africa

Quantity (t) Value ($)

Thank you for your attention

Martinus.VanderKnaap@fao.org

Project Inception Workshop of GCP/RAF/510/MUL:

Enhancing capacity/risk reduction of emerging Tilapia Lake Virus (TiLV) to African tilapia aquaculture

Southern Sun Mayfair Hotel, 23-24 October 2018, Nairobi, Kenya